Kennesaw State vs. Jacksonville State
Jerry Mack won’t get Coach of the Year consideration because most voters and analysts don’t pay attention to Group of Five conferences, but the incredible turnaround for Kennesaw State should have had more people taking notice. The Owls are in just their third season as a FBS member and second season in Conference USA. They’ll play for the conference title against Jacksonville State, as two teams with first-year head coaches meet for C-USA supremacy. Kennesaw State vs. Jacksonville State is one of nine conference championship game previews this week at VSiN.
What makes this run that much more special for the Owls is that they just became a college football team for the 2015 season. Brian Bohannon, who led four of his teams to the FCS Playoffs and had five of them in the Top 25 of both the AP and Coaches Polls, was unceremoniously fired after a 1-8 start last season. Now, the program he helped build is a favorite in a conference title game.
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Kennesaw State (-2.5, 60) vs. Jacksonville State Preview
Friday, 7 p.m. ET (CBS Sports Network)
There is a lot to celebrate and a lot to respect about this Kennesaw State program, but this was supposed to be a transitional year for Jacksonville State and the Gamecocks are playing in this game under first-year coach Charles Kelly. Rich Rodriguez left for his second stint at West Virginia after last year’s team decimated Western Kentucky 52-12 in the Conference USA Championship Game. They would go on to lose the Cure Bowl to Ohio for interim head coach Rod Smith.
Kelly isn’t going anywhere, as the longtime defensive assistant, who got his first full-fledged coaching job at Jacksonville State back in 1994, is reveling in being a head coach for the first time. Not only did he inherit a lot of new faces, but Kelly had the wherewithal to switch from Rutgers and Kentucky transfer Gavin Wimsatt to freshman Caden Creel earlier this season and the arrow pointed up from there.
Creel was 6-1 as a starter after getting his first real taste of college football in the loss to Southern Miss in late September. The true dual-threat QB completed over 61% of his passes with an 8/3 TD/INT ratio and also had six rushing TDs and 6.4 yards per carry to get the Gamecocks into this game.
Ironically, the expectation, at least for me, was that the Gamecocks would struggle badly on offense, losing nearly 4,000 yards from dual-threat QB Tyler Huff and 1,638 rushing yards from Tre Stewart. That duo combined for 40 rushing touchdowns. This year’s team isn’t nearly as dynamic, but Cam Cook has 1,588 yards and 15 TDs filling those big shoes of Stewart and Creel has certainly done as much as he can to replace Huff.
Mack also made a QB change that set the trajectory for his team’s season, as Wofford transfer Amari Odom took over for multi-time transfer Dexter Williams II. Odom isn’t the runner that Creel is, but he has a 17/6 TD/INT ratio and a 65% completion rate. Three of his six interceptions came in the regular season meeting against Jacksonville State, a game in which the Owls racked up 579 yards of offense, but couldn’t overcome a -4 TO margin.
Statistically, Kennesaw State is 43rd in the nation with 5.96 YPP and Jacksonville State is 39th with 6.04 YPP, so not much difference, but the Owls do have a 0.03-yard edge in conference play. Defensively, both teams are very similar, too, as the Owls are 88th with 5.79 YPP allowed and the Gamecocks are 90th with 5.80 YPP against. However, once again, KSU is the better team in conference with 0.15 fewer YPP against.
If you’re wondering why the line has moved in Kennesaw State’s favor despite going on the road for the title game, the yards per play metrics are part of the equation and so is that first head-to-head meeting when the Owls had 128 more yards, but missed a field goal and threw interceptions at the Jacksonville State 10-yard-line twice and one in the end zone.
The Gamecocks did force 21 takeaways and tied for 13th in TO margin and 15th in total takeaways. It is something that they are good at doing, including 16 turnovers forced in eight Conference USA games, while the Owls only forced 12 takeaways for the season.
Kennesaw State vs. Jacksonville State Prediction
Still, I do find Kennesaw State’s profile stronger, as they are the best offense in C-USA by EPA/play and far and away the best passing offense in the conference. The two defenses, turnovers aside, are very comparable. Cook and Creel did combine for 259 rushing yards in the first game, so the Owls need to step up on defense against the run, but I do agree with the line move.
Pick: Kennesaw State -2.5
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