Kennesaw State vs. Western Michigan
What’s better than a morning game on the first day of the College Football Playoff? While we have to wait until primetime for Alabama vs. Oklahoma, we get a battle of conference champions with Kennesaw State vs. Western Michigan in the Myrtle Beach Bowl. This is the first of three games set for Friday, Dec. 19 and it will certainly be a bright one on your TV screen with the Owls and Broncos playing on the teal turf belonging to Coastal Carolina.
Kennesaw State won Conference USA and Western Michigan won the MAC to get to this game, which is actually in Conway, SC, not Myrtle Beach. Nevertheless, this is an 11 a.m. ET kickoff where the players will probably need to provide their own energy since it will be a lightly-attended bowl on a work day.
Odds from Circa Sports as of December 15, 5:00 p.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits.
Myrtle Beach Bowl: Kennesaw State vs. Western Michigan (-3.5, 50)
Friday, Dec. 19, 11 a.m. ET (ESPN)
Outside of Sportscenter re-runs or Stephen A. Smith yelling about something, there isn’t a whole lot to have in that 11 a.m. window, especially in terms of live sports. This has the makings of a pretty good ballgame, as Kennesaw State had probably the nation’s biggest turnaround, going from 2-10 to 10-3 and a conference crown. Western Michigan’s 9-4 showing featured an 0-3 start with losses to Michigan State, North Texas, and Illinois before an 8-1 rampage through the MAC.
Interestingly, both teams got revenge for regular season losses in their respective championship games, as Kennesaw State beat Jacksonville State and Western Michigan knocked off Miami of Ohio. Those were both low-scoring affairs, landing on 34 and 36, respectively, but we’ve actually seen this total rise from 47.5 or 48 up to as high as 50.
There is very little mystery to these teams on offense. They want to run the football. Western Michigan averages nearly 45 rush attempts per contest and Kennesaw State is knocking on the door of 40 carries per game. Both rank in the top 20 in rush attempts. To have that volume of running plays means that the QB has to get involved as well. Broc Lowry is WMU’s leading rusher with 940 yards on 197 carries and he also has 14 of the team’s 29 rushing TDs. He also owns a 7/2 TD/INT ratio with a 63.4% completion rate and 1,683 passing yards.
Amari Odom is Kennesaw State’s third-leading rusher and boasts much better passing numbers than Lowry with a 66.8% completion rate and an 18/6 TD/INT ratio. Odom did not begin the season as the starter, but he became the catalyst to what the Owls were able to achieve. He only averaged 3.4 yards per carry on 112 tries, but also only took 17 sacks. Coleman Bennett and Chase Belcher are the leading ball carriers for the Owls, but with only 4.8 and 4.6 yards per carry, respectively.
Kennesaw State actually had 192 plays of 10+ yards over their 13-game regular season, while Western Michigan only had 139. The Owls also had 25 more plays of 20+ yards, a byproduct of Odom’s arm. Owls wide receivers averaged 13.2 yards per reception, while the Broncos only averaged 10.5.
In other words, for the MAC member to emerge victorious here, it likely falls on the defense. WMU held opponents to 31.93% on third down, which was a top-15 mark in the nation. Interestingly, seven of the 12 playoff teams are among those that did better than the Broncos in that department. The Bronco defense enters this game in the top 25 in yards per play allowed, whereas the Owl defense ranks 88th.
Kennesaw State vs. Western Michigan Myrtle Beach Bowl Prediction
After losing to Wake Forest and Indiana to open up the season, Kennesaw State had one loss and it came in a game where they outgained the opposition 579-451. Western Michigan did play the tougher schedule between the two, but Kennesaw State’s more explosive offense and better playmaking capabilities make the difference for me here in a game. My Bowl Season Power Ratings even have Kennesaw State -1 here, one of my biggest discrepancies between my numbers and the market.
Pick: Kennesaw State +3.5
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