Kent State vs. Akron / Ohio vs. Western Michigan
The world seems just a little bit brighter when we have MACtion to kick off a college football week. We’ll do that for the second straight week, as Ohio vs. Western Michigan and Kent State vs. Akron lead off Week 12. Hopefully you’ve got picture-in-picture here, as the Bobcats and Broncos game means a lot more in the MAC standings, but the Golden Flashes and Zips game is the rivalry battle for the Wagon Wheel.
Therefore, I’ll do similarly-sized blurbs on both games, as each one has a lot of meaning. Remember that this is just the start of our Week 12 college football coverage and there’s a lot more coming down the line.
Odds from Circa Sports as of November 10, 3:30 p.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits. See all of our Week 12 College Football Picks and Predictions.
Kent State at Akron (-4.5, 46.5)
7:30 p.m. ET (ESPNU)
These college campuses are just about 11 miles apart and less than that as the crow flies. This has been a longstanding rivalry that dates back to 1923 when Akron beat Kent State 32-0. Akron is the reigning Wagon Wheel champ with the trophy that was introduced in 1946. In the trophy years, Kent State leads 27-26-1, but the Zips have won back-to-back games.
This is Akron’s bowl game, as the Zips sit 4-6, but are ineligible for postseason play due to their Academic Progress Rate (APR) scores. Kent State would have to run the table for a bowl game, besting Akron, Central Michigan, and Northern Illinois, which is doable, but last week’s setback against Ball State made the path extremely tough.
There are a lot of disturbing stats in the classroom for Akron, but on the field as well. They rank 114th in yards per play on offense and 101st on defense. Take away a 7.7 YPP performance against Duquesne and last week’s 6.9 YPP against UMass and the numbers are even worse. Kent State is 113th in YPP on defense, so maybe eradicating those games from the ledger is aggressive, but the Golden Flashes did beat UMass 42-6 themselves.
Kent State is a lowly 129th in the country in YPP on offense, but they have outgained the Zips on a per-play basis in MAC games. They’ve also allowed nearly a half-yard per play less. Akron has played the tougher conference schedule, but not by a ton. Also, if looking at full-season stats, it isn’t surprising that Kent State’s are awful, as they played Texas Tech, Florida State, and Oklahoma in non-conference, while Akron played Wyoming, Nebraska, and UAB.
This may be Akron’s bowl game, but Kent State wants to beat their rivals and keep the momentum of this season rolling with Mark Carney recently named the official head coach and a solid young QB in Dru DeShields. Money hit the board on Kent State on Monday and I agree with it.
Pick: Kent State +4.5
Ohio (PK, 47) at Western Michigan
8 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
The kids from Kalamazoo host the athletes from Athens here, as Ohio and Western Michigan exchange unpleasantries in a game that means a lot in the quest for the MAC Championship Game in Detroit during the first weekend of December.
Both teams are 4-1 in league play and are locked in a four-way tie. Ohio beat Miami last week to own that head-to-head tiebreaker. WMU lost to Miami, so that makes this game even bigger for them. Ohio also plays Buffalo in the regular season finale, so they’ll get a crack at the other team that is 4-1 as of now, but may not still be in this hunt by then.
The Broncos upset Toledo earlier this season as a big underdog, but they failed their other test against the RedHawks. Their other wins are UMass, Ball State, and Central Michigan, all teams decidedly worse than the Bobcats. Of course, Ohio lost to Ball State in one of the stranger results of the conference season.
On paper, it’s hard to like the Broncos. Parker Navarro is a much more accomplished QB than Broc Lowry and Sieh Bangura and the other backs for Ohio have been much better than Jalen Buckley and the Bronco backs. Buckley’s struggles have actually been a stunner, as he was a 1,000-yard rusher just two seasons ago. Even with 4.7 yards per carry for Lowry, the leading rusher in carries and yards, the Broncos have just 3.8 yards per pop this season and a long of 37 yards.
However, the Broncos excel without the football. This group is 23rd in yards per play allowed and they’ve allowed under 4.4 yards per play in MAC games. Ohio, meanwhile, is 119th in that department. They’ve allowed more than a yard per play higher than the Broncos in MAC games. Wind and a chance of some precipitation could help the Bobcats narrow the defensive gap.
When adjusted for opponents, the Ohio offense is significantly better than Western Michigan’s. Ohio’s defense is actually 22nd in the nation in third-down conversion rate against. They just need to be better on early downs and a poor Broncos offense should help. I think Ohio wins and covers, but I’ll roll with Under 47 here, as Ohio’s defense should get a boost from the opponent and the weather and the Broncos do have a solid unit.
Pick: Under 47
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 12 games on our Pro Picks Page.
