Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns:
While I wouldn’t go so far as to say that this is a make-or-break year for head coach Michael Desormeaux, the Ragin’ Cajuns have not had a winning season in his two years at the helm. The swing game in both seasons has been the bowl game, as Louisiana lost to Houston in 2022 and Jacksonville State in 2023. Both times by seven points.
And that has been the issue for Desormeaux. The Ragin’ Cajuns were 2-5 in games decided by seven or fewer points last season and 0-4 in 2022. On one hand, a 2-9 record in one-score games over two seasons feels like something ripe for a little regression to the mean. On the other hand, you can point to coaching in close games and Desormeaux’s been unable to push the right buttons.
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Offense
To be fair, QB injuries took a toll last season, as three guys started games. One transferred out, as Zeon Chriss went to Houston, leaving behind Chandler Fields and Ben Wooldridge. Collectively, Louisiana QBs had a 23/9 TD/INT ratio and took just 25 sacks, with a 12/4 ratio and 16 sacks from the returnees. Regardless of who gets the Week 1 start against Grambling or the Week 2 start against Kennesaw State, both guys project to play.
Chriss was far and away the best runner of the bunch, so there’s more pressure on top holdover Dre’lyn Washington, who was very inconsistent week to week. The top two receivers are gone, but this was a catch-by-committee situation anyway, as six guys had at least 24 catches and those guys had between 255 and 476 yards. The OL did lose a draft pick (Nathan Thomas), but returns everybody else from a group that finished in the top 50 in yards per play and averaged 32 points per game.
Defense
The defense, like so many in the Sun Belt, is unremarkable, but actually graded very well in yards per play allowed with 5.22. Unfortunately, they finished 89th in scoring defense. Louisiana gave up 58 red-zone attempts, tied for the sixth-most in the nation and ranked in the bottom 20 in third-down defense.
The Ragin’ Cajuns only allowed 45 plays of 20+ yards, which ranked 25th, but teams were able to march methodically down the field against a very porous run defense. There are a lot of returning starters here, including Cameron Whitfield and Jordan Lawson, who combined for 15 sacks.
Outlook
The strength of schedule is a big reason why my projections have Louisiana down for 7.27 wins, but I will say that I did adjust their Power Rating down two points after going through my write-up. I think the West Division has closed the gap and this is a team that has had problems finishing games. I don’t want to be too high on them as a result. That said, I don’t think Under 7.5 is a bet right now, but I’m really thinking about it.
Pick: Under 7.5 Wins
