Louisiana vs. Arkansas State
For the first time during Week 13, two teams that are not members of the MAC will take the field. Louisiana vs. Arkansas State is the lone game on Thursday night, as many watching football will be looking in on Bills vs. Texans on TNF. But, those who prefer the college game do have one to watch and bet on and it should be a competitive game, at least from what the spread is telling us.
A lot of rain is in the forecast for this game and there is the chance for some thunder and a lightning delay is not out of the realm of possibility. Wind isn’t a factor, though any storm could make it a factor.
Odds from Circa Sports as of November 18, 12:30 p.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits. See all of our Week 13 College Football Picks and Predictions.
Louisiana vs. Arkansas State
7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
This one has some bowl game implications, as Arkansas State needs one more win to be bowl-eligible. Louisiana needs to win both remaining games. The Red Wolves could be a bit of a disappointment in the minds of most, given that they had a proven commodity in QB Jaylen Raynor. He’s got a 13/10 TD/INT ratio with 23 sacks taken. Raynor has completed 68.2% of his passes for a career-high, but his next interception will represent a career-high in that department as well.
Raynor also only has 2.9 yards per carry and that has dragged down the Red Wolves’ average because they have a team-high 124 attempts from him. As a result, Arkansas State has 3.7 yards per carry, ranking 109th in the nation.
Louisiana has been relying on all-name-team QB Lunch Winfield, who also has a TD/INT ratio that could be improved. He’s thrown just 10 TD passes and six interceptions, but that is better than the other QBs. As a team, the Ragin’ Cajuns have an 11/13 TD/INT ratio. By comparison, Winfield’s been the best of the bunch and he’s also chipped in 502 rushing yards.
In fact, the Ragin’ Cajuns have three ball carriers with at least 500 yards and they’ve averaged 4.8 yards per carry. So they definitely have the better running game between the two teams and could be part of the reason why we’ve seen this line drop down to 2.5 or why the +3 has extra juice on it.
On the flip side, Louisiana has allowed over seven yards per play in their last two games and has allowed 6.35 yards per play in Sun Belt games overall. The Red Wolves have been better of late and on the whole in conference play. They’ve allowed under five yards per play in the last two games and about 0.8 yards per play fewer in conference games.
That’s basically what this game comes down to. Do you prefer Louisiana and what looks like a much better Ragin’ Cajuns offense? The Red Wolves only have 9.5 yards per catch, along with their poor rushing game.
But, the Red Wolves also have the better defense and it’s pretty clear. Given the rainy conditions, is there a benefit? I would say that Louisiana’s in a better spot here, as they know where they’re going when footing could be a difficult thing. Also, it looks like a good day to run the ball.
Pick: Louisiana +2.5
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 13 games on our Pro Picks Page.
