On December 28th, the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns face the TCU Horned Frogs in the Isleta New Mexico Bowl. This game is part of a Saturday slate that features eight bowl games, and it’ll be interesting to see how it goes. Keep reading for odds, analysis and predictions for this showdown. But make sure you also check out our College Football Bowl Games Hub for all of our VSiN college football betting content.
Isleta New Mexico Bowl: Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns vs. TCU Horned Frogs
How To Watch Louisiana vs. TCU
Where: University Stadium in Albuquerque, New Mexico
When: 2:15 pm ET on Saturday, December 28th
Channel: ESPN
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Louisiana vs. TCU Odds
Moneyline: TCU -455, Louisiana +350
Spread: TCU -12 (-110), Louisiana +12 (-110)
Total: Over 58.5 (-110), Under 58.5 (-110)
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish. They can change. Shop around for the best prices!
Louisiana vs. TCU Prediction
It seems like Louisiana will have starting quarterback Ben Wooldridge back for this game. That wasn’t looking good for a while, but he’s probable now. But the team did lose starters Harvey Broussard, Terrence Carter and Carmycah Glass to the portal, and safety Tyree Skipper is injured. All of that makes it difficult to believe in the Ragin’ Cajuns hanging around against a Horned Frogs team that is in good shape when it comes to the depth chart. Sure, starting center James Brockermeyer is out and transferring to Miami, and wideouts Savion Williams and Jack Bech are opting out. But most of this TCU offensive line is healthy, and the team has plenty of weapons that can make plays for quarterback Josh Hoover. So, it’s hard to worry about the absences.
The reality is that the Horned Frogs are 54th in EPA per play allowed (-0.016) and the Ragin’ Cajuns are just 90th (0.034). There’s a big gap between these teams on defense, and that’s TCU’s weaker side of the ball. The Horned Frogs are 23rd in the nation in EPA per play (0.063), which isn’t surprising considering they have some talent and a great offensive head coach in Sonny Dykes. Louisiana is 41st in EPA per play (0.041), so it’s not like the team is bad offensively. But advanced statistics say the Horned Frogs are stronger on both sides of the ball, and TCU compiled those numbers against a much tougher strength of schedule. The Horned Frogs played the 49th-toughest strength of schedule this year, while the Ragin’ Cajuns played the 94th-toughest.
TCU has also been good as a big favorite under Dykes. With him as head coach, the Horned Frogs are 4-3 against the spread when favored by 10.5 to 21 points. They’re also 4-1 ATS when playing with two or more weeks of rest. It’s also hard to out-Dykes a Dykes team. The Horned Frogs are 12-4 ATS when facing teams that average 250.0 or more passing yards per game with him on the sidelines.
As of right now, this is just a lean for me. However, I am looking into getting involved here. If this thing comes down to a little closer to 10, I’ll end up making a play on the Horned Frogs. Keep an eye on the VSiN Pro Picks page to see if I ultimately go with anything here.
For total bettors, the Over might look like the more enticing option, but I’m not sure I see this one being that high in scoring. In the seven games TCU has played as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 under Dykes, the Under is 5-2. The Under is also 9-5 in the 14 games that Louisiana has played with a total between 56.5 and 63 under Michael Desormeaux.
Lean: TCU -11.5 (-110)
