Louisville Cardinals:

The ACC runner-up will look a lot different this season. Hopes are high that Jeff Brohm is the right man to put together an offense that lost a ton of last season’s production. With his brother as the OC and his background in both playing QB and coaching a lot of them, it is entirely possible that the preseason concerns are overblown.

If the defense is able to perform to or improve upon last season’s numbers, we may be looking at a true darkhorse expanded playoff contender. We could also be looking at a team that just isn’t quite good enough. We won’t find out much until September 28 at Notre Dame, but we will find out.

 

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Offense

Oregon and Texas Tech transfer Tyler Shough is the man that Brohm picked to replace Jack Plummer, who followed his head coach to Louisville from Purdue. Shough will have a dynamic WR prospect in South Alabama transfer Caullin Lacy to go with speedster Chris Bell, but failing to match last year’s offensive balance may hurt the passing game.

Louisville was 21st in the nation in rushing yards, thanks to Jawhar Jordan and Isaac Guerendo, who combined for just under 2,000 yards. Both guys ripped off over six yards per carry and had 24 combined rushing touchdowns. Both guys are also gone. They allowed Plummer to get a lot of easy pitch-and-catch and play-action throws, yet he still threw 12 interceptions and got sacked 32 times. Brohm might be an offensive genius, but I’m worried about this unit.

Defense

The worries are fewer and farther between on defense, where co-DC Ron English and Mark Hagen return a ton of production. Louisville allowed the 12th-fewest rushing yards in the nation and tied for 29th in sacks with 34. Ashton Gillotte had 11 himself and he’s back for more as one of many top returnees.

There is no reason to believe that the defense falls off. The schedule isn’t loaded with gifted offenses, though Louisville’s ball control style may be harder to achieve and that could impact the defense. The Cardinals were 17th in average time of possession per game last season.

Outlook

As I wrote in the intro, we may be looking at a playoff darkhorse…but I don’t think we are. My projections have Louisville with 7.84 wins and I don’t think they’ll repeat what they did last season. I do have them as a very clear underdog only twice, but there are some toss-up games and four of the last five and six of the last eight games are on the road. I’m also not a Tyler Shough believer.

Pick: Under 8.5 Wins

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