Louisville vs. Washington:

The current landscape of the bowl season is very messy, leaving bettors and college football fans with more questions than answers going into the games. There are also a lot of games that become far less compelling matchups as a result of the transfer portal and opt-outs. But, I always felt like the Sun Bowl between the Louisville Cardinals and Washington Huskies was a fascinating game from the time that the bowl pairings were announced.

Both teams have some opt-outs and transfers, which is inevitable, but this is still a game with two programs that are trying to consistently take that next step and I can’t help but feel like this one is a bit of a tone-setter heading into the 2025 season.

 

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Sun Bowl: Louisville Cardinals (-2.5, 49.5) vs. Washington Huskies

How To Watch The Sun Bowl

When: Tuesday December 31, 2 p.m. ET

How: CBS

Where: Sun Bowl Stadium in El Paso, TX

The first season in the Big Ten was a tough one for Washington. The Huskies clearly missed Michael Penix Jr., Kalen DeBoer, and many of the other pieces and parts that led them to the National Championship Game last season. But, I think it’s worth digging a bit deeper into their resume.

Washington really had a hard time with the travel. They lost at Rutgers, Iowa, Indiana, and Penn State and weren’t competitive in three of those four games. They should have won the game at Rutgers, as they dominated the box score, but lost anyway. They also lost to Oregon and lost the Apple Cup, leading to a 6-6 season. But, I felt like this was a better team than the record indicated all season long.

The Huskies are a top-30 unit in yards per play on defense heading into this one. They actually had a positive yards per play differential in Big Ten play at +0.2. Not impressive, but still something that stands out in a season where their road performances were lopsided losses in most cases.

Demond Williams Jr. will get the call at QB. Will Rogers was benched late in the season as Jedd Fisch prepped for 2025 with Williams, who completed nearly 77% of his passes and had a 4/0 TD/INT ratio. Star running back Jonah Coleman had over 1,000 yards and says he’ll be back for next season, so he should play. The Huskies are missing the left side of their offensive line, so we’ll see if that becomes a big deal, but Williams was the team’s second-leading rusher in limited action.

Louisville has some offensive questions because QB Tyler Shough won’t play. Louisville is not planning for the future here, as senior Harrison Bailey will be thrust into the starting gig. Bailey completed all eight of his passes for 63 yards during the season, as Shough had 389 of the team’s 402 pass attempts. Head coach Jeff Brohm played the position and has been something of a QB whisperer as a coach, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see Bailey play well. He’s never really gotten a chance during stints at Tennessee and UNLV, so we’ll see what he does here.

Bailey does have the benefit of a 1,000-yard rusher of his own in Isaac Brown, who had 1,074 yards on just 147 carries. However, he will not have 1,000-yard receiver Ja’Corey Brooks. Caullin Lacy is said to be on the depth chart after sitting out to preserve a redshirt, so we’ll see if he does give it a go in this one.

Something to keep in mind here is that Louisville was a big-play offense. They are currently third in the nation in yards per play going into the bowl game at 6.88.

You have two really good play-callers and strong offensive minds in this game. I think they have a lot of stuff planned for their QBs and skill guys and we should see a lot of points here. I also lean Washington +2.5 given that I feel like I have a better handle on Williams than I do on Bailey.

Pick: Over 49.5

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