LSU vs. Houston
The LSU Tigers stole all of the headlines when they hired Lane Kiffin, but they still have a bowl game to play. They’re going to face the Houston Cougars in the Texas Bowl on December 27, and they’re going to do it inside Houston’s NRG Stadium. In many ways, this is a game that should favor LSU. However, with the Tigers having several NFL-level talents, they do have some opt-outs. They also have some players hitting the transfer portal to find better fits, plus some players dealing with injuries. That should level the playing field a bit, making this a game Willie Fritz’s team can win. With that in mind, keep reading for an LSU vs. Houston betting preview.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of December 24, 10:00 am ET; check out our DraftKings Betting Splits and Circa Betting Splits.
Texas Bowl: LSU vs. Houston (-2.5, 41.5)
Saturday, Dec. 27, 9:15 pm ET (ESPN)
The arrival of Kiffin brings some excitement to Baton Rouge, but this Tigers team might not be in the best of shape for this football game. Mansoor Delane and Harold Perkins, two stars on the defensive side of the ball, are opting out to begin their NFL prep. LSU is also going to be without Garrett Nussmeier and Whit Weeks, who are dealing with injuries. That’s four big-time starters right there, and the team also has some other role-player types set to sit out. Houston won’t be dealing with much of that. The only key player that we know will miss this one is center Demetrius Hunter, who left the team in early December.
The Nussmeier absence could be a big one when trying to determine the winner here. Michael Van Buren is a better runner than Nussmeier, but he’s not nearly as cerebral or accurate as a passer. That’ll hurt against a Houston team that is 40th in the nation in EPA per play allowed (-0.066). The Cougars are also 25th in Dropback EPA per play allowed (-0.119).
Houston also finished the regular season scoring at least 30 points in five of its final seven games. So, while this LSU defense is tough, the Cougars, who have a great quarterback in Conner Weigman, should find a way to put up some points here.
All of that, combined with the fact that this game is being played in Houston, should make for a favorable situation for a Cougars team that should be more motivated than the Tigers. That’s why I’d lean Houston here. However, I do think the better play is the Over.
It’s just a little nuts that this number is so low. Van Buren might not be as good of a passer as Nussmeier, but he should be able to put together some successful drives here. The Tigers are still a team with all kinds of high-level talent at the skill positions. That should make LSU a threat to bust a big play or two, even against a good Houston defense. And I love the Cougars to put a pretty big number on the board. I’m a big fan of LSU defensive coordinator Blake Baker, but missing Delane, Perkins, and Weeks could be problematic in a game the players might not care about to begin with.
The Over is also 6-3 in the nine games Houston has played as a favorite under Fritz. It’s also 4-1 in the five bowl games Fritz has coached in his college career.
LSU vs. Houston – Texas Bowl Prediction
While LSU was an Under team later in the year, this feels like a game that could end up being higher scoring than expected. The Tigers have had several weeks to get the offense ready, and their defense is missing some major pieces. That should lead to a back-and-forth game with a Cougars team that scored quite a bit down the stretch.
Pick: Over 41 (-115)
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