LSU vs. Ole Miss Predictions
There’s nothing quite like a high-profile SEC matchup, which is exactly what we’re getting when the Ole Miss Rebels host the LSU Tigers on Saturday, September 27th. All year, we’re going to be diving into some of the biggest college football games of the season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds and picks for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 5 College Football Betting Hub for a look at all of our college football betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How to Watch LSU vs. Ole Miss
Where: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, Mississippi
When: Saturday, September 27th at 3:30 pm ET
Channel: ABC
LSU vs. Ole Miss Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Wednesday, September 24th. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Ole Miss -120, LSU +100
Spread: Ole Miss -1.5 (-110), LSU +1.5 (-110)
Total: Over 54.5 (-112), Under 54.5 (-108)
LSU vs. Ole Miss Analysis
Figuring out how many points a player is worth to a spread is one of the hot debates when handicapping football. We’re not dealing with that here. But how much do you adjust the spread when a starting middle linebacker hard-launches a relationship with the opposing coach’s daughter? Because that’s exactly what happened this week, as it became “Instagram official” that LSU’s Whit Weeks and Landry Kiffin, Lane Kiffin’s daughter, are dating. That has to count for something, right? Surely, Kiffin’s Rebels will have his back and deliver a perfect performance, showing Weeks how not cool that s*** is.
Putting jokes aside, it’s the road team that looks like the play here. In my Week 4 takeaways column, I emphasized how well Trinidad Chambliss played against Arkansas and Tulane, and I also mentioned that his explosive running could make him an upgrade over Austin Simmons. Well, Chambliss will be out there in this one, making Ole Miss’ offense a little more dangerous than it already his. However, LSU is currently eighth in the nation in Adjusted EPA per play allowed (-0.26). After a rough Year 1 in Baton Rouge, Blake Baker, an elite defensive play caller, now has the talent he needs to shut down some of the best offenses in college football. And I trust the Tigers to go out and do a decent job defensively in this one. Damien Shanklin, Jacobian Guillory II, and Harold Perkins will be terrorizing Chambliss when he drops back, and the LSU secondary has the type of ball-hawking playmakers that can force some turnovers.
This also feels like a spot in which we could see an eruption from the Tigers offense. The LSU offensive line has been a problem early in the year, but only six teams in college football have a lower Havoc percentage than Ole Miss’ 7.1%. I’m just not sure the Rebels will be able to put enough pressure on Garrett Nussmeier here, and he is as good of a passer as anybody. That said, if he has time to just sit back and find his talented pass catchers, the Tigers might hang a massive number on the Rebels.
Just look at the kind of problems Arkansas created for Ole Miss two weeks ago. That game was closer than expected, with the Rebels defense having very little success getting off the field in a 41-35 win. Well, the Tigers are much better than the Razorbacks defensively, and they have the offensive talent to match what the Hogs did in that game.
LSU has also had success against high-powered offenses in the Brian Kelly era. In the 16 games that the Tigers have played against offenses averaging 31.0 or more points per game, they’re 11-5 straight-up.
LSU vs. Ole Miss Prediction
The home team has won six of the last seven games in this head-to-head series, so LSU has a tough challenge ahead. But the Tigers have a much better defense than the Rebels, and that feels like it should ultimately make the difference. An extra stop or two in a game like this is massive, and LSU has a better shot at coming away with those.
Bet: LSU ML (+102)
