MAC CONFERENCE OVERVIEW
The Mid-American Conference performed a one-for-one swap this offseason, shipping off Northern Illinois to the Mountain West and acquiring Sacramento State from the Big Sky Conference at the FCS level. If you don’t understand that trade from a geographic standpoint, neither do I, but the Hornets signed a five-year deal to be a football-only MAC member, as the basketball team will play in the Big West.
With UMass rejoining the MAC last season, the conference has 13 teams, with three in Michigan, one in New York, six in Ohio, one in Indiana, one in Massachusetts, and then one in California. As usual, realignment remains a head-scratcher, but we sure have some fascinating travel spots for this season as a result, especially when we get to MACtion in late October and early November with weeknight games.
On the whole, the conference isn’t very strong again, but somebody will have to win it. UMass went 0-12 and 0-8 in conference play at one extreme, while Western Michigan went 10-4, including a 7-1 record against MAC opponents. The Broncos put an exclamation point on their season with a 10-point win over Miami (OH) in Detroit for the MAC Championship and a slaughter of Kennesaw State in the Myrtle Beach Bowl.
WMU (+360) is co-favored to run it back and their company is Miami, so we could be looking at our first MAC Championship Game rematch since Northern Illinois and Bowling Green played three straight title games from 2013-15. The Falcons (16-1) may not be much of a factor, but their archrival Toledo (4-1) is getting some market love, even with former head coach Jason Candle at UConn. Ohio (+650) and Central Michigan (+750) round out the single-digit shots in what looks like a wide-open conference again.
Three teams tied for second at 6-2 last season and there was a battle until the end in 2024 with two teams at 7-1 and two at 6-2. It usually comes down to the last week to see who will represent the conference at Ford Field and this season looks to follow that same path.
AKRON ZIPS
The Zips failed to win more games than they lost for the 10th consecutive season, as a 7-7 showing in 2017 is the best outcome for the program since going 8-5 under Terry Bowden back in 2015. While a 5-7 mark wasn’t very impressive, context matters a lot here. For starters, five is the most wins for Akron since that 2017 season. Second, the team knew before even stepping foot on the field that a bowl game was not going to happen, as low Academic Progress Rate (APR) scores caused a bowl ban prior to the start of the campaign. To go 5-7 under those conditions was a huge win for Joe Moorhead.
Are the Zips slowly turning the corner? Maybe. There is no bowl ban for this season and it seems like the program got a little bit more investment than usual, as the school in the heart of the Rubber City has among the lowest NIL budgets in FBS. Not only that, but the APR scores forced the team to be away from the field and spend more time in the classroom, so the Zips have the chance at being even better this season.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Will Reese Poffenbarger shake off the dust and cobwebs?
Poffenbarger, who was originally recruited to Miami (FL) after a strong season at Albany, will attempt to take advantage of a fresh start in Akron. Poffenbarger held a clipboard for Cam Ward at Miami in 2024 and for Drew Mestemaker at North Texas in 2025, but he has a minimal path of resistance at best here at Akron. He waltzes into a pretty good offensive situation. Moorhead was a longtime OC and QB coach before taking on this challenging job. RB Jordan Gant ran for over 1,000 yards, as the Zips finally showed signs of growth there, and leading WR Marcel Williams is among the pass-catchers that are back. Poffenbarger, though, has only thrown a total of 14 passes over the last two seasons.
Are the Zips improving in the trenches?
If you want to be a bad football team, be bad at the point of attack. This is a Zips program that gave up 63 sacks in Tom Arth’s last season back in 2021 and then 56 sacks in Moorhead’s first season in 2022. They’ve improved, dropping to 30 sacks in 2024 and 35 sacks in 2025. While that’s not good enough to have a positive sack differential, last year’s -9 was easily the best for the team in a very, very long time. The 26 sacks from the defense were the most since the Bowden era and the team’s 3.7 yards per carry was the most in a non-COVID year since then as well. While none of these are impressive numbers, per se, they’re better than what the Zips usually accomplish.
Which defense shows up in 2026?
In Moorhead’s four seasons, the Zips have allowed 6.0, 5.2, 6.1, and 5.8 yards per play, while giving up 33.5, 28.0, 32.0, and 27.4 PPG. Given the annual shortcomings of the offense, any drop-off from the defense feels like a concern. Last season also saw the Zips with a positive TO margin for the first time in about a decade at +3 with 20 takeaways. The top eight tacklers are all gone from last season, but nobody had more than 66, so it’s clear that Tim Tibesar’s plan was to rotate everybody in. Unfortunately, those top eight had most of the production in terms of sacks, pass breakups, tackles for loss, and interceptions.
Akron 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Over 4.5 Wins
Moorhead got a lot out of a team that couldn’t make a bowl game and the most impressive data point to me was a 19-16 road win at Bowling Green after losing to rival Kent State in OT. The Zips had every reason in the world to mail that game in and didn’t. It should also be noted that the Zips were +480 in yards against MAC foes outside of the 45-3 loss to Toledo in which they were outgained 538-134. That game, and the 728 yards from Nebraska in a 68-0 loss, skewed the defensive numbers in a big way. This was maybe a better team than the 5-7 record showed and Moorhead is finally gaining ground with the direction of the program. My projection is 4.29 wins, but I do like this team.
BALL STATE CARDINALS
The Men of Muncie need to figure something out and fast. Last year’s dismal offensive performance with just 15.8 PPG led to the fourth straight season without a bowl game and Ball State hasn’t had a winning record in conference play outside of the 2020 COVID season since 2013. The MAC is not exactly known for being a stout conference, but the Cardinals haven’t played in the title game outside of the COVID year since 2008. Maybe downplaying the COVID year is a bit harsh, as Ball State did go 7-1 and beat San Jose State in the Arizona Bowl, but obviously there were a lot of factors in play that season.
In hopes of turning things around, the university hired Mike Uremovich as the head coach and his 4-8 season featured very little to be excited about. The Cardinals were simply brutal on special teams, mustered just 272 yards of offense per game, and finished -26 in sack differential with 49 sacks allowed. Returning production would have been an oxymoron here, but Ball State has next to none of it anyway, so Uremovich starts Year 2 with essentially a brand-new roster.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Is there a starting QB on the roster?
By definition, yes, somebody will have to start games. However, there is no clear-cut answer as to whether or not any of the guys in the QB room can be FBS-level starters, even in the MAC. Keldric Luster barely played over two years at SMU and then barely played at Texas State last season. D-II transfer Tyler Mizzell threw 10 interceptions with 26 TD passes for the Concord U. Mountain Lions after transferring out of Wake Forest. Maybe redshirt freshman Khalel Wright, who was part of Uremovich’s first freshman class last season, or this year’s top true freshman QB recruit Mason Adkins will get a crack. While the bar is exceedingly low for a team that had 15.8 PPG, 4.5 YPP, 49 sacks, and a starting QB that threw for just 1,583 yards, it doesn’t seem like the bar will move much higher.
How about the skill positions?
The Cardinals return one rushing TD from last season and two receiving TD. Granted, they didn’t have many touchdowns to possibly bring back regardless, but these are pretty much two new groups of players as well. QB Kiael Kelly led the team with just 600 rushing yards (2.8 YPC) last season. Qian Magwood was the leading WR with 19 catches for 320 yards, followed by returnee Donovan Hamilton with 20 grabs for 244 yards. It’s entirely possible that Uremovich likes the fit of his portal class and his two freshman classes more than what he inherited from Mike Neu, but as his own OC, last year’s results were pathetic and the talent level of the roster looks similarly low heading into 2026, even if the offensive line might be better.
Is the news any better on defense?
Uremovich brought his Butler DC and longtime best friend Jeff Knowles with him to Muncie. This unit was actually something of a success story last season. Neu’s final defense at Ball State gave up over 40 PPG. Knowles oversaw a unit that allowed 29.8 PPG and shaved off a full yard per play. Given how little help the offense was able to provide, this unit did its best, though some more pass rushers wouldn’t hurt. The Cardinals played at a slow tempo in hopes of keeping the defense from getting exposed, as they averaged just 60.8 plays per game. The defense faced 67.3 plays per game, so given their heightened workload, that unit deserves a lot of credit. That being said, Knowles has only two returning starters and both are in the secondary.
Ball State 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Under 3.5 Wins
This is a tepid take at best, as even with an offense that managed just 16 PPG in conference play, the Cardinals still won three of those eight games, plus the win over FCS New Hampshire. Unfortunately for the Cardinals, two of their three most winnable conference games are road visits to Kent State and UMass. They also shockingly upset Ohio last season and that probably doesn’t happen again with a trip to Athens. It is tough to find four wins here, as my projection is 3.41 wins.
BOWLING GREEN FALCONS
I felt like the Falcons were one of the more interesting teams that I wrote up last season because they hired former Ohio State standout and Tennessee State miracle worker Eddie George as the head coach. We saw flashes from the Falcons, as they upset Liberty in non-conference and upset rival Toledo in conference, but there were more disappointments than achievements. The Falcons lost four times as a favorite to MAC opponents and mustered very little on offense, especially in the passing game.
We’ll never know if things would have gone better had Notre Dame/Missouri transfer Drew Pyne not gotten hurt, as four different quarterbacks saw action and they collectively had as many touchdowns (12) as interceptions. That position is still in a state of flux heading into this season. One major silver lining is that George and his staff were able to attack the portal alongside everybody else instead of doing so in March last season after he was hired.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Are the Falcons set up for success?
Bowling Green had injuries, as every team does, but it seemed like last season was a series of fact-finding missions for George and his staff to isolate the players that best fit the system. Austyn Dendy looks like the feature back and had a solid freshman season with 4.6 yards per carry, but his 108 carries barely outpaced Chris McMillian with 84 and Cameron Pettaway with 72. Kaderris Roberts also had 48 carries. George was trying out everybody to see who would stick, and it was ultimately Dendy who did. This season, I would expect a tighter rotation with Dendy and Charleston Southern transfer Ke’Marion Baldwin, who had nearly five yards per carry for the Buccaneers. Similarly, a lot of guys that played, but maybe weren’t focal points, now get chances at WR and on the offensive line, including the tight ends with a lot of 12 personnel in this scheme.
Will the defense take a step forward?
The offense only mustered 20.5 PPG and just 4.9 YPP, so the defense was under a lot of pressure. Linebackers coach Joe Bowden, who played with George as a member of the Tennessee Titans, is now the DC of a group that allowed just 24.3 PPG, but 5.6 YPP. Gideon Lampron basically never left the field and he’ll be missed with 119 tackles, including 15 tackles for loss, but the defense was a lot like the offense in that a lot of guys played. Some of the expected starters were with George at Tennessee State two seasons ago, but either didn’t start at BG or had transferred elsewhere. Even if the defense doesn’t take a step forward, a similar baseline coupled with a better offense would be effective.
Did Eddie George learn some important lessons?
The Falcons had those two very impressive wins over Liberty and Toledo, but also blew leads against Kent State, Akron, and Eastern Michigan that would have made the season look a lot different and may have even led to bowl eligibility. The no-show against Central Michigan the week after the Toledo game was also a good teaching moment for everybody. Keep in mind, when George took over at Tennessee State, he hadn’t really coached anywhere else. Instead, he had been an adjunct professor at Ohio State and Vanderbilt and had been doing some acting. Even though he’s been around football all his life, coaching, especially in the current CFB landscape, is a lot different and his first recruiting cycle at the FBS level seems promising.
Bowling Green 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Over 4.5 Wins
Not a bet given the heavy vig, and we’ll see how much George has grown and adapted to life in the MAC, because most of the wins will have to come from conference games. The Falcons play Nebraska, Iowa State, and South Florida in non-conference, so that’ll be a tough stretch, plus conference play starts with perennial contender Miami of Ohio on the road. The schedule softens up considerably from that point forward and that’s where the wins should come. If you can find an in-season win total on BG after they probably start 1-4, that might be the way to go. My projection is 4.26 wins.
BUFFALO BULLS
Pete Lembo was dealt a harsh reminder about how hard it is to be a head coach at the G5 level and with the current state of affairs. Lembo’s first season at Buffalo was spectacular, as the team went 9-4 and comfortably beat Liberty in the Bahamas Bowl. But, this past season, Buffalo went 5-7 and even the wins were scary, beating Kent State by only a field goal as a 23.5-point favorite and then barely beating Eastern Michigan and UMass as substantial favorites. They also lost to Akron as a double-digit favorite.
The Bulls had a swing of 16 in the turnover margin department, going from +9 to -7, as C.J. Ogbonna was outstanding in 2024 and Ta’Quan Roberson and Gunnar Gray were less so in 2025. Al-Jay Henderson went from a 1,000-yard rusher to a 755-yard rusher due to attrition on the offensive line. Last year’s defense was even unequivocally better than the 2024 version, but the Bulls won four fewer games and now we have a lot of questions heading into Year 3 of the Lembo regime.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Isn’t there something ‘special’ about Lembo?
One area of the team that absolutely did improve last season was the special teams. Per Phil Steele, the Bulls were 13th in his special teams rankings, a jump of more than 40 spots, and Bill Connelly’s SP+ had the Bulls 12th nationally. After he was let go by Ball State, he bounced around a bit as a special teams coordinator and really did a fine job in that role. Even with 22 turnovers lost, Brian Fremeau at BCF Toys had Buffalo 37th in Net Starting Field Position and only 23.5% of opponents’ drives started less than 60 yards from the end zone. Special teams are a very underrated part of the game, especially in college football and especially with so much roster turnover, but being good in that area can absolutely elevate the floor of a team. Expect the Bulls to be good there again.
Is there anything special about the quarterbacks?
This is, by far, the most questionable position group on the roster. Everything starts with the QB and we saw that last season, as Buffalo excelled on special teams and played well on defense, but Roberson couldn’t keep up with what Ogbonna did the year prior. Elijah Holmes threw for over 3,000 yards for the D-II Wingate Bulldogs, while redshirt freshman Jason Wright had 15 rush attempts, but no pass attempts. Personally, I think we see true freshman Qur’an McNeill sooner rather than later, as he had offers from Arkansas, Cincinnati, UConn, Syracuse, and Boston College, but opted for Buffalo. With a very light NIL budget, I’m guessing they invested pretty heavily in this kid.
Can Bowden rebuild the defense on the fly?
The offensive questions are plenty obvious, including the loss of two guys who had 62 receptions apiece, plus Henderson, but the defensive losses were heavy, too. Leading tackler Red Murdock had 142 stops, 61 more than Dion Crawford, and he’s gone. So is Crawford. So is Mitchell Gosner, who was one of four Bulls with 70+ tackles. Everybody with 3+ sacks is out. But, the Bulls have 69 sacks over Lembo’s two seasons, so they should have found somebody to get after the QB. Last year’s defense only had 15 takeaways and only seven were interceptions. Quite a few in-house options have been elevated, so the program has guys who know the system.
Buffalo 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Over 6.5 Wins
This is a bit of a price play here, as the juice on Over 5.5 is cost-prohibitive, but 6-6 does look like the most likely outcome. However, the schedule is pretty kind with two FCS opponents at home in non-conference, plus home games against UMass and Bowling Green. November roadies at Ball State and Akron are extremely winnable games and even the Week 2 trip to FIU has the chance for a happy flight home. Lembo gets a lot out of his talent and I think his program bounces back. My projection is 6.32 wins, but the Over 6.5 has some equity. With two FCS games, Buffalo needs to get to seven wins for a bowl, so unless they can get a waiver for winning six games if two of them are the FCS games, that should be a motivating factor.
CENTRAL MICHIGAN CHIPPEWAS
Are you a quarterback who would rather run the ball than throw it? You might want to consider going to Central Michigan while Matt Drinkall is still there. The former Army offensive line coach went 7-6 in his first season as the head coach at CMU, as he did a pretty good job of ramming square pegs through round holes. Drinkall’s offense only averaged 3.9 yards per carry, which is not at all what you’d expect given his history with the Black Knights, but turning a team into a group capable of running that sort of offense takes time.
It’s also not very easy to find players who come from that scheme or can pick up that scheme, given how spread offenses and more of the “run and gun” style are en vogue these days. Also, Jim McElwain was not running a power offense, so any of the holdovers were going to take some time to whip into shape, while also trying to win games with what the team was capable of executing. After a successful first season, Drinkall now pivots to doing what he originally wanted to do and that could be a good thing or a bad thing.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Will this work in the MAC?
Objectively, the MAC is not a good conference. When offenses are humming, defenses are suffering. When teams prioritize defense to slow down the opposing offense, we see a lot of poor per-play and per-game numbers from those units. The MAC isn’t traditionally viewed as a physical conference, even though a lot of schools are located in or near recruiting hotbeds for linemen talent on both sides of the ball. Drinkall is looking to run a lot of 21 personnel, as he has a mobile QB in Angel Flores, who was the team’s second-leading rusher and top touchdown-getter last season. With a lot of returning linemen and some transfer portal acquisitions, Central Michigan is going to play a run-heavy, ball-control style of offense. Given the inefficiency most teams in this conference display, shortening the game and limiting possessions may be extremely fruitful.
How close is Drinkall to running the offense the way he wants?
That’s the biggest question, probably, as Joe Labas completed 70.6% of his passes last season with a 13/6 TD/INT ratio while Flores was the running QB with 107 rush attempts against just 28 pass attempts. Brock Townsend had over five yards per carry for the Chippewas, while Vaughn Blue had over five yards per carry for Liberty. It is not easy to get wide receivers to buy in with this kind of playbook, but leading receiver Langston Lewis stuck around and that says a lot to me. While this is a slightly undersized line compared to most, that’s by design, as the linemen need to be pulling and getting out ahead of the play to optimally run this scheme. They are very, very close.
Is the defense a bigger worry than the offense?
Last season, the offense only had 22.5 PPG, but they were assisted greatly by a defense that allowed just 23.5 PPG, including just 18 PPG in conference play. However, the losses are extremely heavy on that side of the ball. Jordan Kwiatkowski and Dakota Cochran combined for 199 tackles and 14.5 tackles for loss. Leading sack man Michael Heidman had 10.5 of the team’s 28 sacks. While Jaion Jackson was probably the team’s second-best corner, he’s one of just two returning starters. This style of offense limits exposure for a defense, but this group definitely looks to be a major worry.
Central Michigan 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Over 6.5 Wins
Per Brian Fremeau of BCF Toys, there wasn’t a single MAC team in the top 50 in Offensive Points Per Drive. We do have to take into account how some of the paycheck games against P4 teams skew the numbers, but a lot of MAC teams also mix in a FCS team or two. If Central Michigan can achieve this ground-and-pound, uber-methodical offensive attack and limit the available possessions in games, they should have a ton of success in this conference because the offenses by and large stink. Even with defensive concerns, that unit shouldn’t be asked to do a ton. The conference schedule is a bit tougher for the Chips, but they host Sac State and only play three true conference road games, with one against lowly Ball State. My projection is 6.14 wins.
EASTERN MICHIGAN EAGLES
The Chris Creighton magic may be dwindling in Ypsilanti. In a world where coaches change teams like they change underwear, Creighton is kicking off his 13th season with the program. However, after records of 5-7 and 4-8, the Eagles have missed the bowl season in consecutive years for the first time since 2014-15, Creighton’s first two years with the team.
The program heads into 2026 with the lowest-ranked transfer portal class in the conference per 247Sports, but also tied with in-state rival Central Michigan for the largest freshman class. Creighton wants to be a program builder and watch players develop over multiple seasons. While admirable, and successful in the past, it is a hard route to take nowadays. Sticking with that theme, instead of going outside the program to replace DC Ben Needham, Creighton simply promoted two of the defensive assistants to revive a unit that has allowed 6.2 yards per play each of the last two seasons.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Is this a case study in returning production in the transfer portal era?
Per Bill Connelly, Eastern Michigan ranks 24th in percentage of returning production and that’s even with the loss of a 1,000-yard rusher in Dontae McMillan. The team’s three leading tacklers are back, the starting QB, and top WR, and that’s seemingly a rarity in the current landscape of college football. Phil Steele has the Eagles No. 1 in the MAC and No. 7 nationally in his experience chart. How valuable is that continuity? With the P4-level teams, I’m not sure how much it matters, but it might in the G6, where the talent isn’t as strong and there are more transfers from JUCOs and lower-division schools. Unfortunately, the defense has more returning production than the offense and this is a defense that allowed 6.2 yards per play and only generated 14 sacks.
What is the ceiling for the offense?
EMU will roll with QB Noah Kim once again, the Class of 2020 Michigan State commit who is on his seventh season of college football. Kim had an 18/11 TD/INT ratio and was tops in the MAC with 2,817 passing yards, but the offense only had 24.1 PPG, even with just 11 sacks allowed. Kim is mobile enough to evade the pass rush and the combination of Braydon Bennett and the depth guys at running back should produce, as Bennett had over six yards per carry at Coastal Carolina. McMillan was the team’s second-leading receiver, so we’ll see who can help there, but this is largely a similar offense to last season, just with a less experienced offensive line. While EMU went from 5.1 YPP to 5.7 YPP from 2024 to 2025, they scored 1.8 fewer PPG. Make of that what you will.
Is that returning production the key for the defense?
Bryce Llwewellyn had 102 tackles to lead the way and he’s back, along with the team’s second and third-leading tacklers. However, while there are a lot of returnees, impact plays were few and far between. The defense allowed 6.2 YPP for the second straight season and gave up nearly two more points per game. The defense improved greatly against the pass, but allowed a full yard more per carry. This was the 131st-ranked defense on third down, only had nine takeaways, and 126th in sacks. One potential silver lining is that the defense only allowed 5.6 YPP in conference games.
Eastern Michigan 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Under 5.5 Wins
The talent level on the roster doesn’t really seem to be any stronger. While the Eagles do host Sacramento State in the Hornets’ first MAC game, they have to go to UMass and Akron, two of their more winnable conference contests. With a neutral-site game against Central Michigan, the Eagles only play three conference home games. It does seem like other programs are evolving more and portal success seems paramount nowadays. Perhaps EMU goes bowling, but the ceiling is probably six wins and several outcomes below that seem more plausible. My projection is 5.39 wins.
KENT STATE GOLDEN FLASHES
A lot of context is required when looking at Kent State’s 2025 season. First, Kenni Burns was 1-23 over the previous two seasons and then got fired for cause in April, pushing OC Mark Carney into the head coaching role. Second, looking at the full-season stats would be disingenuous. Kent State lost 62-14 to Texas Tech, 66-10 to Florida State, and 44-0 to Oklahoma, getting outgained by over 1,000 yards combined. While Toledo also blew them out in conference play, the Golden Flashes were competitive in most of their other games and went 5-3 in them.
While the full record states that Kent State was outgained by 12.3 PPG and outgained by nearly 140 yards per game, conference play was a different story. They only allowed 5.2 YPP and gained nearly 5.7. They were +1 in TO margin. After going 0-16 against MAC opponents under Burns, they were 4-4 under Carney and there is a lot of hope around the program that this wasn’t just a one-year blip.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
What does Dru have in store for Year 2?
The Dru in question is Dru DeShields, who basically came out of nowhere last season to post an 18/3 TD/INT ratio with just over 2,000 passing yards. The redshirt freshman finally kept his ACL intact and it paid huge dividends for the Kent State offense, as they put up over 20 PPG for the first time since 2022. While the yardage totals still weren’t eye-popping, even in conference play, taking care of the football and protecting the quarterback really made a difference. It was also an impressive season given that top WRs Chrishon McCray and Luke Floriea had moved on, as they combined for 84 of the team’s 139 receptions the previous year.
What about the rest of the offense?
Here’s the thing – DeShields staying healthy is vital because there is absolutely no FBS experience behind him. So, that’s one concern and a massive one at that. The team’s top four rushers from last season are all gone and so are the top two receivers by yardage. Wayne Harris led the team with 35 receptions, but only had 383 yards. While the wide receiver room didn’t invite a lot of new faces to the party, virtually the entire running back room is new. It’s also entirely possible that the offensive line is better, despite some lost starters. That group only helped the team to 2.9 yards per carry and if we even eliminate the brutal non-conference schedule, the Flashes had just 3.6 YPC in conference games. That’s not good enough in this league, but a more stable passing game and a full recruiting cycle for Carney should help.
Will the “Sophomores and Seniors” defense work?
There is a fascinating dynamic on Cherokee Valeria’s defense, as there are portal players that are seniors and some homegrown talent that will play big roles as sophomores. Many of the portal guys are second-year players in the scheme, so we may see more explosive plays out of them. The team’s -3 sack differential last season was better than the -25 and -29 of the last two seasons, but more turnovers need to come. DeShields only had three interceptions as the primary QB and the Flashes were still negative in TO margin for the season. Like last season, they’ll be under duress in the non-conference with South Carolina, Ohio State, and USF, but should be competitive in conference games again.
Kent State 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Over 3.5 Wins
It will be a challenge to match the five wins from last season, given that the Flashes play Sacramento State on the road on a short week after the rivalry game against Akron and don’t have the luxury of seeing UMass on the schedule. However, Carney’s swing game might very well be the season finale at Eastern Michigan and I’m very low on the Eagles this season. This isn’t a super strong play, but the talent level is better here again. And, hey, if you’re looking for a possible X factor, Josh Cribbs is the new special teams coordinator. I do like this, despite a projection of 3.23 wins.
MASSACHUSETTS MINUTEMEN
The Minutemen really put the “ass” in UMass last season, as they were 0-12 and scored just 11.1 PPG. It was the first year for head coach Joe Harasymiak and one to forget to say the least. This wasn’t a byproduct of getting super unlucky in the turnover department or anything like that either. This was a truly terrible team that got outgained at home by Bryant and lost all eight conference games by an average score of 38-11. The low point of the season was probably a 42-6 loss to Kent State, a team that hadn’t beaten a FBS opponent since the end of 2022.
Now it’s UMass who hasn’t beaten a FBS team in a while, as their last win was against Army back on October 8, 2023, a game in which Kay’Ron Lynch-Adams ran for 234 yards. The Minutemen rushed for a total of 989 yards last season over 12 games. Since their last FBS win, the Minutemen have beaten Merrimack, Central Connecticut State, and Wagner. They’ll get two FCS teams – Sacred Heart and Stonehill – this season, so 0-12 looks unlikely, but I guess you never really know.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Will UMass win a game?!
Let’s get the hardest question out of the way early. I’m going to say yes. Sacred Heart and Stonehill are two great options, but they also host Ball State and Eastern Michigan this season, two teams that they didn’t play last season, and I think either one could be beatable, if not both. It is also Year 2 for Harasymiak and his assistants, although OC Mike Bajakian won’t be along for the ride, as he’s the new QB coach of the Cleveland Browns (I swear, the jokes write themselves with that organization). Given that the UMass offense had 3.9 yards per play and an 8/9 TD/INT ratio from the QBs, something tells me that Bajakian isn’t really a big loss. New OC Max Warner, who was an offensive assistant at Toledo, seems like an upgrade.
Can UMass right the wrongs of last season?
Well, for starters, three different QBs started games and six different players, including two of the QBs, had at least 40 rushing attempts. Jacquon Gibson had 63 catches and nobody else had more than 27. Fifteen players had at least 20 tackles. Injuries played a part, but Harasymiak and his staff were just trying to find dudes that could ball pretty much all season long. There are quite a few P4 transfers on the roster now between this portal cycle and the coaching staff’s first one. One of them is Pop Watson, who may start at QB. He’s never really gotten a crack to start, but was a three-star recruit and the MaxPreps HS QB of the Year in Massachusetts back in 2021, so it’s a homecoming for him and he headlines a much better QB room.
Will anybody get to the quarterback?
An absence of negative plays was an enormous issue for the UMass defense last season. They only racked up 13 sacks and allowed more than five yards per carry, including 5.1 YPC in conference action. Only Air Force and UCLA had fewer tackles for loss. Ironically, Rutgers was one of the teams with fewer sacks than UMass and that’s where Harasymiak and his DC Jared Keyte came from. So, maybe it’s just the scheme. Jackson State transfer Joshua Nobles had 10 sacks before transferring in, but got hurt before the season started. Edge William DePaepe was at Indiana. Linebacker Michael Robinson was at Rutgers. This group seems decidedly more talented.
Massachusetts 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Over 2.5 Wins
The betting market seems to be confident in three wins coming from the group of Sacred Heart, Stonehill, Sacramento State, Eastern Michigan, Ball State, and Akron and I can’t blame them. This team is absolutely better on paper and the schedule is absolutely friendlier. That’s not to say I’m rushing to put my money on them, since I don’t even know if Harasymiak is a good coach, but this is Stonehill’s first game against a FBS team and Sacred Heart lost by 28 to a UConn team that went 3-9 in 2023, so that should get the Minutemen at least one win away from cashing this. My projection is 2.77 wins.
MIAMI OF OHIO REDHAWKS
A 7-7 record at Miami feels like a down year for Chuck Martin, who begins his 13th season at the helm in Oxford. But, when you dig deeper, the season played out exactly as expected. Miami was an underdog in all seven losses and a favorite in all seven wins. How’s that for following a script? Unfortunately, one of those defeats came at the hands of Western Michigan, who got revenge for a regular-season loss when it mattered most in the conference title game. That marks two seasons in a row that the RedHawks have lost in Detroit with the hardware on the line, but also their third straight Motor City appearance.
So, the goal is pretty clear for Martin and his players this season. Get back to the title game, but win it this time. Even though the G6 CFP berth is out there for somebody to take, it would take something really, really special for a MAC team to even be in the running, so the goals are pretty reasonable and pretty attainable for the RedHawks as they embark on a season with a lot of new faces on offense and some serious production to replace on defense.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Who wins the QB battle?
The winds of change blew through Oxford last season, as Brett Gabbert finally exhausted his eligibility. The program’s all-time third-leading passer was first replaced by former rival Dequan Finn from Toledo, but Finn quit the program before playing his old team. Henry Hesson took over and was awful against the Rockets, leading Thomas Gotkowski to finish the season as the starter. Gotkowski only completed 44.2% of his passes, but he’s still on the roster alongside Kansas transfer David McComb and D-II Fort Hays State transfer Caleb Heavner. McComb had offers from Memphis, Virginia Tech, North Texas, and Tulane, among others and is probably a better fit in that he’s more Gabbert-like than Finn was.
Who sparks life back into Miami’s running game?
Even with a mobile QB in Finn, the RedHawks put up just 4.2 yards per carry, their lowest since 2022. Furthermore, they only managed 4.1 yards per carry against MAC opponents. They had 4.94 YPC against MAC opponents two seasons ago, so that’s probably the benchmark that Martin and OC Pat Welsh will be looking for. Along with Heavner, Martin went to Fort Hays State and secured Rodney Nelson, who averaged better than six yards per carry. D’Shawntae Jones had 4.4 yards per pop last season on 63 attempts and led the team with seven rushing touchdowns as a 5-foot-10, almost 250-pound back. Seems like there’s a bit of a “thunder and lightning” component to the ground game to go with an offensive line that played together a lot last season.
Is the RedHawks defense in any danger?
One of the staples of the Martin era has been a stout defense. Last season’s 21.7 PPG allowed was the most since 2022, but the 41 sacks were also the most in a long time. With a sub-50% completion rate from the offense, the defense was put into some tougher situations relative to previous seasons and still did just fine. They allowed under 200 passing yards per game in conference play and just 3.7 yards per carry. The defensive losses are extremely heavy, as Eli Blakey, Jackson Kuwatch, and Corban Hondru amassed more than 300 tackles, eight sacks, 11 pass breakups, and 12 QB hits. Top pass rusher Adam Trick had 8.5 sacks and 13 QB hits and he’s also gone. Martin always finds defenders and losing guys is nothing new, but it might take some time with the group that departed.
Miami of Ohio 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Over 7.5 Wins
The MAC co-favorites should split their non-conference games down the middle, with two P4 losses and wins in the other two games. While the RedHawks don’t get newcomer Sacramento State or Eastern Michigan, they do get UMass and Kent State on the road, so those are two very winnable roadies. The RedHawks have gone 21-6 in MAC play over the last three seasons, winning at least six games each time. With plus money on 8+ wins, I’ll trust that Martin does what he almost always does. My projection is 7.77 wins.
OHIO BOBCATS
Aside from an uncharacteristic 3-9 showing in 2021, the Bobcats have been one of the most consistent G5 teams in the nation. Last year’s 9-4 mark was the first time since that ‘21 season that Ohio didn’t win 10+ games, but given everything that they went through, it was another really good season. It wasn’t surprising that the transfer of power from Frank Solich to Tim Albin resulted in a one-year blip, but now the Bobcats have another new head coach in John Hauser. While they’ve kept all of their promotions internal, from Albin to Brian Smith to Hauser, who was the interim head coach for the Frisco Bowl win over UNLV, you have to wonder if there’s a big impact on one of these seasons.
Perhaps this could be the one, as Hauser, who was the defensive coordinator, is now looking at a program with one returning starter on offense, the loss of a multi-year QB in Parker Navarro, the loss of near-1,400-yard rusher Sieh Bangura, who transferred back into the program prior to last season, and a noticeably lackluster transfer portal class.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Will the string run out at the quarterback position?
Whether you want to credit the scouting and talent evaluation, the system, the stability of the program, or just outright good luck, Ohio has been on a generational run of QBs since Tyler Tettleton showed up in 2009. Ohio’s three all-time leading passers have all come within the last 20 years with Tettleton, Nathan Rourke, and Kurtis Rourke. While Navarro had trouble taking care of the ball with just a 27/22 TD/INT ratio in his two seasons as a starter, he ran for nearly 2,000 yards with 27 rushing scores. Hauser and OC Scott Isphording have options, including returnee Nick Poulos, who redshirted last season, New Hampshire transfer Matt Vezza, who ran for 600 yards, and incoming freshman Levi Davis. But, the bar is set so high here that virtually any of those options are likely to fall short.
Is QB the only concern on offense?
Hardly. The offensive line features all new starters. While pretty much everybody has been in the system for a long time, they are unproven, which is a major concern with Bangura’s 1,392 yards and 15 rushing TDs and the team’s top four wide receivers in yardage, including a 1,000-yard pass-catcher in Chase Hendricks all elsewhere. Even in the transfer portal era, Ohio has had a lot of continuity and returning production year over year, or have at least had high-upside players waiting in the wings. The offense looks unrecognizable this season. And, as potent as they’ve been on a per-play basis, with 6.1 and 6.2 YPP over the last two seasons, they still haven’t scored 30 PPG since 2022 when they had a +12 TO margin.
Will the defense save the day?
It’s possible, but it is interesting to note that Hauser was the co-DC at Miami of Ohio, so he was one of the few external hires in recent seasons. I’m not sure if that will matter or not. Kurt Mattix is back to be the DC after shacking up in Charlotte with Albin last season. The attrition on the defensive side is a lot lighter than the offensive side, but still noticeable. With the top two tacklers gone, top defensive back Tarik Pearson, and most of last season’s very low total of 22 sacks, backups will have to step up and transfers will have to acclimate quickly. After racking up 36, 36, and 35 sacks over the previous three seasons, the 22 sacks were the fewest since that ill-fated ‘21 season with 17.
Ohio 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Under 6.5 Wins
It is entirely possible that an established, steady program can withstand and overcome all of the doom and gloom addressed above, but I have my doubts. Given how the Bobcats have had tenured starting QBs like Tettleton and the Rourkes, I won’t be the least bit shocked if they take some lumps and embrace a transitional year with Davis, the three-star QB from the Columbus area, to set him up to follow the long line of productive predecessors. While the Bobcats do avoid reigning champ Western Michigan, they get Miami and Toledo over a three-week stretch, have to go out to Sacramento, and have some non-conference toss-ups. My projection is 6.91 wins, but I could see a down year.
SACRAMENTO STATE HORNETS
Welcome the Sac State Hornets to the FBS ranks, as the team from the capital of California will play in the Mid-American Conference. There has been a lot of money funneled into athletics lately at the school, as the basketball program is coached by Mike Bibby, Shaquille O’Neal is the “GM”, and home games have a party-like atmosphere. They’re now in the Big West Conference, but the football team is in the MAC as a football-only member.
That is hardly the only change for the program, as they hit the FBS ranks with a new head coach in Alonzo Carter and a ton of new faces. Last year’s team was led by Rodney Hammond, who had over 1,200 rushing yards, and Ernest Campbell, who had 755 yards on just 37 catches. HC Brennan Marion’s up-tempo offense produced 33.8 PPG, but the scheme will be different this season. Also, the most obvious change for the Hornets will be the travel, with two trips to Michigan, one to Ohio, one to Indiana, and then the regular-season finale in Hawaii.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Do the players get to keep their frequent flyer miles?
As long as they’re flying commercial, they should be able to, but that all depends on how the tickets are booked. Hopefully the Hornets players do get to keep them, because they’re going to log some miles this season. The biggest trip for the program last season was to head down to East Texas A&M. This season, Eastern and Central Michigan, Bowling Green, Ball State, and Hawaii are all on the schedule. Of course, they could take advantage of some teams making the long trek to them. While the travel is certainly a talking point, it should be noted that there are no back-to-back road games for the Hornets outside of the end of the season with a bye week in between and that they only leave California once prior to October 10.
Is this the real-life sequel to Coach Carter?
The 2005 movie featuring Samuel L. Jackson was based on a California high school basketball coach who had a talented team that wasn’t showing up in the classroom and he put the season on hold to put academics first. Ken Carter was the head coach at Richmond High School in the West Contra Costa Unified School District. Alonzo Carter’s only other college head coaching gig was at Contra Costa College in San Pablo. Alonzo, who grew up in Oakland, has a strong reputation in the athletics community in terms of mentoring players and assisting them off-the-field as much or more as he does on it. He’s been at San Jose State and Arizona on Brent Brennan’s staff over the last five years and now gets his own program. I don’t know how the team will do in close games or what his clock-management will look like, but there are a lot of JUCO transfers and discarded players that make up his roster and I have to assume this team is going to play extremely hard every week.
Are the Hornets going to be competitive?
Playing hard is a nice trait to have, but does the roster have the talent to turn that into playing tight games and even winning some? Well, we’ll have to wait and see, but 247Sports did grade Sac State’s transfer portal class second in the MAC. QB Carson Conklin transferred to Fresno State when Marion took over, but has now come back to the place where he was the starter in 2024. There are major questions in the trenches on both sides and obviously new playbooks to learn with OC Eric Kiesau from Florida and DC Adam Clark from Northern Arizona. Any returnees on defense now have to learn a 3-3-5 stack and returnees on offense, while very few and far between, have a more traditional offense to learn. Competitive? Maybe, but it probably won’t show in the standings.
Sacramento State 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Under 4.5 Wins
Mississippi Valley State and UMass look like the best (and maybe only) hopes for wins from the Hornets this season. Ohio, Kent State, and Toledo all head west in conference play and those are two of the better programs annually in the MAC, plus a Kent State team hungry for any win that they can get. Obviously this is a transitional year to say the least and one that is likely to feature a lot of hurdles and challenges. My projection is 4.82 wins.
TOLEDO ROCKETS
For the first time since 2016, the Rockets will not be playing for Jason Candle. Hell, for the first time since 2009, Candle isn’t even with the program. He’s now the head coach at UConn and the Rockets moved quickly to replace him with Mike Jacobs, who spent the last two seasons with Mercer at the FCS level. Jacobs is a northwest Ohio native and his staff also consists of people with Ohio ties, including former Tiffin and Ohio Dominican head coach OC Cris Reisert and Cleveland native and Youngstown State DC Jahmal Brown.
Jacobs was a long snapper and offensive lineman at Ohio State from 1997-2001 and got into coaching pretty much right after that. His first head coaching gig was at Notre Dame College about a half hour from downtown Cleveland. This is something of a step up for the 47-year-old, but he took Mercer to the playoffs in back-to-back seasons and may very well be an upgrade over Candle, something hard to say about a guy who won 65% of his games overall and 68% of conference games.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Holy Toledo, who are these guys?
There are virtually no recognizable names on the roster for the Rockets this season. Returning production is hard to find, as the top returnee in tackles had 35 and the top returnee in yards of any kind had 194 receiving yards. It’s hardly a surprise, as Candle left when a lot of his players were running out of eligibility and a head coach leaving means that the transfer portal is wide open. 247Sports lists 37 transfers for the Rockets, who have the third-best MAC class per their ranking. John Alan Richter is not one of those transfers, so he’s a name that Rockets fans may recognize. Otherwise, there are a lot of Mercer transfers who were with Jacobs, including RB CJ Miller and WR Adjatay Dabbs, plus there are some faces on the OL familiar to Reisert, as they came with him from Gardner-Webb.
What kind of offense should we expect to see?
Under Jacobs, Mercer racked up 6.8 yards per play last season with a balanced approach that left them third in the nation in yards per game. The Bears had 4.9 yards per carry on more than 400 rushing attempts and threw for over 3,800 yards. Toledo may have been a little more run-heavy last season, but that’s also because they had a lot of leads to protect and some big leads at that. Obviously this year’s team won’t have the same defense as last year’s squad, so we’ll have to wait and see how the game state plays out. With Miller, Penn State transfer Cory Smith, and two senior tackles who played for the Rockets last season, I would expect them to lean on the run at the outset.
What kind of defense should we expect to see?
This is going to be an aggressive defense under Brown. Last year’s Mercer group only allowed 3.4 yards per carry, but gave up 5.7 yards per play because they got burned for some explosives in the passing game. The Bears had 42 sacks in 12 games, but also only generated 15 takeaways. With 96 tackles for loss, you can see how they pursued the run heavily and also got to the quarterback, but an evasive QB had the chance to burn them. There are some running QBs in the MAC, but not as many this season as we’ve seen in other years. With quite a few Mercer transfers who know the scheme, this should be an exciting defense to watch.
Toledo 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Over 7.5 Wins
The schedule is pretty soft for Jacobs in Year 1, as the Rockets don’t face Miami of Ohio, get reigning champ Western Michigan at home, and get a visit from San Diego State in non-conference action. It will take time for things to come together and the opener against Michigan State may not be pretty, especially for a defense that allowed just 13.3 PPG and 96 rushing yards per game last season, but Jacobs seems like a good hire and there’s at least some familiarity thanks to all the transfers from a team that finished in the FCS Top 25 each of the last two seasons. My projection is 8.04 wins.
WESTERN MICHIGAN BRONCOS
For a G6 team to return the conference’s Offensive Player of the Year with the current state of college football seems rare. For that player to be the starting QB is even rarer. Then, add in a 1,000-yard running back from the previous season and all of a sudden you have the foundation of something special. Therefore, it should come as no surprise that Lance Taylor’s Broncos are expected to make a strong run at repeating as MAC champs this season. Broc Lowry threw for 1,803 yards and rushed for 963 more with 23 total touchdowns and Jalen Buckley shook off an injury-plagued 2024 to reel off 5.6 yards per carry.
This is something of a throwback offense running double tight ends for OC Walt Bell, but it worked, as WMU played keep-away with 4.6 yards per carry. Even though they only had 5.2 yards per play, a +9 turnover margin helped and the defense was spectacular, shaving nearly two touchdowns per game off of their ledger year over year. But, it could be harder than it looks to stay on top.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Will Martini be shaken and stirred?
The Martini in question is Greer Martini, the 30-year-old defensive coordinator who has big shoes to replace with the departure of Chris O’Leary. O’Leary is now the DC with Jim Harbaugh and the Chargers, as he left the organization for a year to call plays in Kalamazoo and then went right back. With O’Leary, the Broncos were tied for fourth in the nation with 43 sacks. They were +21 in sack differential, ranked 12th in third-down defense, and only allowed 24 red-zone trips in nine conference games. Martini was the linebackers coach and his unit was really good, but they had to go to the portal to replace those guys. Plus, Nadame Tucker and Rodney McGraw combined for 21.5 sacks and 26 QB hits, as Tucker had 14.5 sacks and was signed as a UDFA by O’Leary and the Chargers. McGraw is now with the Dolphins.
Can the offense pick up the slack?
The Broncos were just 109th in yards per play last season. Of course, run-pass distribution was a major factor, as they ran the ball over 600 times. They were seventh in total rush attempts, with three service academies ahead of them, plus Rice, who now runs the option, and Indiana. Lowry’s ability to run was the separator and the separator for him in taking over the job full-time after he and Brady Jones were in something of a timeshare to start the year. With Lowry and Buckley, along with a pretty experienced offensive line, they’ll be able to run. But, will they be able to pass enough to keep the opposing defense honest?
Did Lance already have his chance?
Lance Taylor was 10-15 over his first two seasons in Kalamazoo. Everything seemed to come together last season, sparked by the pass rush and the ability to wear down the other team’s defense. The Broncos were 12th in average time of possession, but they were tied for 98th in plays of 10+ yards and tied for 110th in plays of 20+ yards. Under O’Leary, the defense shaved off 1.4 yards per play, after allowing 6.4 and 6.1 in Taylor’s first two seasons. It sure seems like there are a lot of reasons to be skeptical of the team given the heavy personnel losses on defense and an NFL-caliber defensive coordinator.
Western Michigan 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Under 7.5 Wins
It is a luxury to be able to use the transfer portal for depth as opposed to impact, which is the case on offense, but the defense is a major work in progress. There is a ton of depth behind Buckley, but not so much behind Lowry, who had 203 carries, a lot for a 6-foot-1 QB. The Broncos also don’t get the luxury of facing UMass and Ball State this season, so the conference slate is a bit tougher. They also draw Michigan, Rice, and Boise State in non-conference play. While they should beat Rice, that game will basically have a running clock with teams that averaged 49.8 and 44.5 rush attempts per game, meaning the margin for error could be thin. My projection is 7.39 wins.
