MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE OVERVIEW
They say success is the greatest revenge, but in this case of jilted lovers, the Mountain West might have some trouble making the defectors to the new Pac-12 jealous. Gone are Boise State, San Diego State, Fresno State, Colorado State and Utah State. To replace them, the conference brought in UTEP, Northern Illinois and North Dakota State. The Bison have a shot to be the hot new fling, but the Miners and Huskies are projected to be cellar-dwellars in their first seasons in the conference.
The aforementioned North Dakota State program — which dominated the FCS and the Missouri Valley Football Conference — is one of the short shots to win the Mountain West. UNLV and New Mexico are either tied as favorites or have slight variance in their prices to win it all, depending on the shop. All three programs have rightful claims to their status as true contenders, but the conference does go slightly deeper than that.
Hawaii returns quarterback Micah Alejado, who was named preseason Offensive Player of the Year. Timmy Chang has improved his win total each season on the island and has both an effective offense and a favorable schedule in conference play. There is no doubt the Rainbow Warriors are a dark horse of sorts to win the Mountain West.
Then there is Troy Calhoun and Air Force. The Falcons won nine games over the last two seasons, but Calhoun has an experienced roster, including quarterback Liam Szarka, who led one of the most efficient offenses in the country last season. Air Force could absolutely find a way to the table of contenders by season’s end.
Heartbreak usually leads to change. People hit the gym, change their diets and generally try to improve themselves when they get out of a long-term relationship. The Mountain West certainly tried to do that with the additions it made, but it’s unlikely those that departed for the Pac-12 are amazed by the changes to the conference. Either way, this should be a raucous and volatile season in the Mountain West, and that is great for bettors.
AIR FORCE FALCONS
From 2019 to 2023, double-digit win seasons, bowl game appearances and competing for league titles was a regularity for Air Force. However, roster turnover and injuries led to a stark drop-off in production over the last two seasons. After winning 40 games in four seasons — excluding the COVID-shortened season — the Falcons mustered just nine in the last two. That does not fit with the expectations of the second-longest tenured coach in college football.
Troy Calhoun has what he needs to get back to those winning ways this season. An experienced quarterback, returning production from an offense that was one of the most efficient in the country and no expectations. All eyes are on UNLV, New Mexico or North Dakota State this season. Perhaps, they should be on Colorado Springs.
Is this the best offense in the Mountain West?
The Falcons averaged 29.8 points and 407 yards per game last season. They ranked 11th in the country EPA per play, and 15th in both EPA per play when rushing the football and rushing success rate. Only four starters are back from that group, but one of them is quarterback Liam Szarka, the first time in four years Calhoun has a returning signal-caller. Owen Allen — the team’s second-leading rusher behind Szarka last season — is back as well. Three starters departed in the offseason along the offensive line, but the career starts for this unit match those from last season. It will be hard to match the production of one of the best offenses in the country, but this is potentially the best unit in the conference.
Will the defense do its part?
While the Falcons had one of the best offenses in the country, they quite literally had the worst defense. Air Force allowed 30.3 points and 423 yards per game. Opponents averaged 7.2 yards per play. The Falcons were dead last in the country in opponent EPA per play, 134th in net yards per play (-2.08) and 96th in success rate. This season, eight starters are back from that group, including eight of the top nine tacklers and tackles-for-loss leader Isaac Hubert. In an effort to regain some semblance of competence, Calhoun brought in Steve Russ as defensive coordinator. Russ most recently served in the same role at UAB, but was defensive coordinator here from 2014-2017. There is nowhere to go but up for this group.
Can Air Force surprise the Mountain West?
The Falcons drew a favorable schedule this season. They must play North Dakota State, UNLV and New Mexico, but the first two must make the trip out to Colorado Springs. Air Force also avoids playing Hawaii. One wonders how the newcomers to the conference — of which the Falcons play two at home — will fare getting ready for an option offense in the middle of the regular-season slog. Calhoun has been a consistent force in this conference. Given the production on offense and the potential for improvement on defense, this seems like a team that could make a surprising appearance in the Mountain West Championship, something that hasn’t happened since 2015.
Air Force 2026 Season Win Total Pick: Over 7.5 (+120)
The key to success for Air Force will be the defense. If the Falcons can creep back toward just average on that end, then this will be a team that is a true threat in the Mountain West. The offensive line is strong, and Szarka is the best quarterback Air Force has had in years. His return — along with that of Allen — could mean this is going to be one of the best offenses in the country once again.
The Falcons have to face the big boys of the conference, but two of them — North Dakota State and UNLV — will have to make the road trip to Colorado. Air Force has to go to New Mexico to end the season, but they avoid Hawaii entirely. Duquesne, UConn, SJSU and UTEP make up the other winnable opportunities at home. Air Force could shake up expectations in the conference.
HAWAII RAINBOW WARRIORS
Improvement has been the theme for Hawaii under Timmy Chang. The Rainbow Warriors have improved their record each season under Chang, and statistically, they have seen their numbers improve on each side of the field. Coming off a nine-win season, one would assume improvement is hard to achieve in 2026, but the ‘Bows have everything they need to get it done.
Micah Alejado was named the preseason Offensive Player of the Year. Pofele Ashlock was named to the preseason All-Conference team. This should be one of the premier offenses in the conference. On the other side, linebacker Jamih Otis and defensive back Elijah Palmer are preseason All-Conference players as well. The talent is there, and the schedule provides opportunity. This has the makings of a massive season in Honolulu.
Three Burning Questions For The 2026 Season
What does a healthy Alejado look like in 2026?
Alejado had an incredible 2025 despite dealing with a nagging ankle injury, which he suffered in the season-opener against Stanford. The injury eventually led to Alejado missing two starts — Sam Houston State and Portland State — but the signal-caller still delivered. Alejado completed 66% of his passes for 3,106 yards while tossing 24 touchdowns to nine interceptions. The Las Vegas native was never a dual threat in high school, but still showed an ability to escape pressure and use his legs, as represented by the 614 yards and six touchdowns he rushed for over his last two seasons at Bishop Gorman. Improvement in the passing should largely be expected given his pedigree, but can Alejado add another dynamic to his game on the ground with a healthy ankle this season?
Does the steady improvement for the defense continue?
When Chang took the job in 2022, the Rainbow Warriors had just two starters back on defense and went on to allow 34.7 points per game and 6.6 yards per play. In every season since, Hawaii has allowed fewer points and yards per game, improved in yards per play each season and has seen the sack total climb from just 17 in 2022 to 30 last season. Only three starters are back for Chang in 2026, but Dennis Thurman is back for a second season at defensive coordinator, and the top three players in tackles for loss — along with leading sack-getter Elijah Palmer — are all on the roster. Hawaii does not need to be a shutdown unit by any stretch, so if they can improve or even maintain the production from last season, this unit should be a strength.
Can the ‘Bows break through?
Hawaii has achieved a winning record in Mountain West play just three times since joining the conference in 2012, one of which occurred last season. Coming off a nine-win season, the goal for Chang and the Rainbow Warriors is a Mountain West Championship. The betting market believes this team is on the fringe of contention — it is the fourth option to win the conference at DraftKings (+450). Hawaii also gets the benefit of hosting all three teams — UNLV, NDSU and New Mexico — that are ahead of it in the betting market. Chang has improved his record every season at the helm. The trend would tell you that the ‘Bows are on the brink of something big.
Hawaii 2026 Season Win Total Pick: Over 7.5 (+120)
Belief in Hawaii hinges on the growth and development of Alejado. The second-year signal-caller has provided no reason not to believe. He also has a plethora of weapons at his disposal to make the dream of Hawaii winning a championship tangible. All the Rainbow Warriors have to do is take advantage of the opportunity in front of them.
While the schedule has the challenge of all three conference powers, each of them must make the trip out to the islands. A road trip to Wyoming will be difficult, but it comes after a bye week for Hawaii. They have to go to NIU, UTEP and Nevada as well, all of which are games this team should take care of if they are what their potential suggests they are. Not only is this team worth playing Over on its win total, but they are a solid bet to be the Mountain West champion.
NEVADA WOLF PACK
Nevada was never a dominant powerhouse in football, but this was a proud program with a track record of success. Ten wins over the last four seasons between two head coaches shows just how tumultuous the time has been in Reno. But, Jeff Choate is a fiery dude who does have a sturdy base with his Wolf Pack roster this season that could lead to some improvements.
Nevada is a prime example of a program that lacks the backing in the NIL era to stay relevant. There is more money out there for Nevada, but the results need to be there as well. No one is asking the Wolf Pack to make it to the CFP, but regular bowl appearances should be the norm in northern Nevada.
Who emerges among the trio of contenders for the quarterback job?
Nevada had one of the least efficient passing-attacks in the country in 2025. The Wolf Pack ranked 114th in passing success rate, 133rd in passing EPA per play and ranked in the 34th percentile in explosive pass rate. Those anemic numbers are why Nevada has a three-way competition at quarterback despite Carter Jones returning. Jones (1,019 yards 6 TD 8 INT) will fight UCLA transfer Luke Duncan and program stalwart AJ Bianco for the gig. Duncan is 6-foot-6 and started on the road against Ohio State last season for UCLA. Bianco has been in Reno for three seasons. The expectation is that Duncan will eventually win the job, but Choate has sworn this race is tight heading into fall camp. No matter who wins, the Wolf Pack will need much more from the position in 2026.
Can the running game find its legs once again?
If the passing game finds its way back toward average, it could mean wonders for the Nevada rush offense, which has some strong indicators of future success. Leading rusher Caleb Ramseur is gone, but Herschel Turner ran for 395 yards on 5.1 yards per carry and is back. He is behind what seems to be a strong offensive line on paper. Three starters return, including preseason All-Conference left tackle Jack Foster and right tackle Zach Cochnauer, who earned Fourth Team All-Conference honors last season. Choate also brought in both Jacob Norcross and Ethan Newman Jr. from Memphis to play center and right guard, respectively. Nevada averaged just 4.4 yards per carry and finished 76th in rush success rate last season. With the returning production and additions, this group could be much improved.
Can Jeff Choate work his magic with this defense?
Given Choate’s defensive background, the effectiveness of this unit will always be in question. There has been steady improvement each of the last two seasons, but could this be the year they take the step toward above average? Choate certainly has the pieces. Defensive lineman Dylan LaBarbera and defensive back Aidan Walker were preseason All-Conference selections. Linebacker EJ Smith is back after an early injury ended his season as well. The Wolf Pack have allowed fewer points and yards per game, as well as yards per play, each year under Choate. It would not be surprising to see that trend continue this season.
Nevada 2026 Season Win Total Pick: Over 4.5 (+120)
Quarterback is an obvious question for Nevada, but Duncan showed enough in his starts for Hawaii last season that the expectation should be that he wins the job and serves in the role admirably. If he can provide a steadier hand at the position, then this offense has enough talent to be much more effective. Assuming Choate can get the most out of this defense, this could be a difficult out for Mountain West foes.
The Wolf Pack draw some difficult opponents on the schedule. Nevada must go to both North Dakota State and UNLV while also hosting Air Force, New Mexico and Hawaii. But the potential of this defense under Choate, coupled with an offense that has some upside, could equate to an upstart season for the Wolf Pack in 2026.
NEW MEXICO LOBOS
Head coach Jason Eck and the Lobos took the Mountain West by storm last season with a 9-4 record and six wins in conference play. Now, New Mexico is the favorite with one of the most experienced rosters in the country. Twelve starters are back from last year’s squad, and among them are quarterback Jack Layne and reigning Defensive Player of the Year Jaxton Eck.
It’s easy to see why the Lobos are considered the favorite by some to win the conference. However, there is a big difference between being the upstart ‘dog and the hunted favorite. How will New Mexico deal with this massive role change?
Three Burning Questions For The 2026 Season
Is the quarterback position actually settled?
Layne is back after leading the Lobos to nine wins and a bowl berth, but despite his success, he might not be a lock to be the starting quarterback. Layne missed spring camp recovering from surgery on a torn flexor tendon in his throwing elbow. He also was not overtly dominant last season. Layne threw for 2,486 yards with just 13 touchdowns to 10 interceptions. He averaged only 7.6 yards per attempt. Good, not great numbers. Behind Layne is Oregon transfer Luke Moga. A former three-star recruit, Moga reportedly made the most of Layne’s absence in spring and “dazzled” the media in Albuquerque. Moga is a strong athlete with enough upside to convince Oregon to recruit him at one point. Should Layne not be healthy, or even struggle early, this could be Moga’s job before the season’s end.
Will this defense be any better?
The Lobos return six starters from last season’s unit. Their returning production is a strength on offense, but is it on defense? New Mexico was very strong in limiting big plays, finishing in the 67th percentile in explosive play rate allowed. However, it was in the 19th percentile in non-explosive EPA per play and the 36th percentile in late-down success rate. Linebacker is the position of strength for this group with the Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year back in the fold, but the team lost a good amount of production along the defensive line. It wouldn’t be surprising to see this group allow more than the 3.4 yards per carry it limited opponents to in 2025, and bettors might want to expect a dip in sack production after the Lobos racked up 36 last season.
How does the team fare with expectations?
New Mexico was a surprise in 2025. The team closed as an underdog in seven of its games, but in the six games it was favored in, New Mexico went 3-3 SU and 1-5 ATS. This season, the team is either the outright favorite to win the Mountain West or tied on the oddsboard with UNLV. There is no question that the market will — as it stands in the offseason — make this team a favorite in the majority of its contests. It’s a nice story when you’re the underdog, but meeting market expectations is a whole new task when you’re the hunted at the top of the pack.
New Mexico 2026 Season Win Total Pick: Under 8.5 (-180)
The win total is a tough play considering the juice on Over 7.5 and Under 8.5 wins, but if one were more likely than the other, it would be Under 8.5 victories. New Mexico did not fare well as a favorite last season, and now it faces a reality in which it will be the favorite in most of its conference games. Perhaps some improvement could mean the team handles that role much better, but with the continuity on the roster, the flaws remain the same as well.
The team’s schedule presents some big challenges as well. Road trips for the Lobos include Oklahoma, Hawaii and Wyoming. They must host both UNLV and North Dakota State, as well as Air Force. Can they get the coin to flip heads consistently in those coin-flip type spots in conference play? That seems unlikely. New Mexico is a good team, but most of its damage dealt last season was as an underdog. This team as a favorite seems to be overvalued.
NORTH DAKOTA STATE BISON
North Dakota State was the big fish caught by Mountain West commissioner Gloria Nevarez in the wake of the Defecting Five heading for the Pac-12. The Bison are a great football program with a long history of not only dominating at the FCS level, but also stepping up to challenge some of the best FBS programs in the country. NDSU retains that role as favorite despite stepping up to the FBS level, and many will be curious to see how it fares in the Mountain West.
Having said that, the Bison are entering this new journey with a largely homegrown roster. Not many transfers are on this team, and head coach Tim Polasek lost a lot of talent from last year’s team to the transfer portal. This season will be a true test of NDSU’s formula as a football program.
Three Burning Questions For The 2026 Season
How does North Dakota State handle being a favorite at a higher level?
The role of favorite is nothing new to this program. North Dakota State was not only favored in every game it played last season, it closed as a 30+ point favorite in six of its 13 contests. The Bison have expectations — both internally and externally — of success in the Mountain West, but this is a higher level of competition. The powers that be in the conference did NDSU no favors either when mapping out the schedule for its inaugural season in the Mountain West. The Bison have road trips to Air Force, UNLV, New Mexico and Hawaii. Those will be coin-flip spots for North Dakota State. Gone are the days of bullying a lesser conference. NDSU is certainly capable of winning this league, but the road will be much tougher.
Will the lack of talent from the transfer portal burn the Bison?
North Dakota State took a different tact with its 2026 recruiting class than most: it brought in 29 high school players and only nine transfers. Three played at Power Four programs last season, and one of those three is punter Caleb McGrath. The Bison lost a lot of talent to the portal, including two First-Team All-MVFC offensive linemen. At the FCS level, the strategy of bringing in a large number of high school recruits with the plan of retaining and developing them is what worked for NDSU. However, this is not the FCS. Teams — especially in the Group of Five — are constantly retooling with G5 castoffs and former top prospects looking for a new home after failing to catch on at the power programs. The Bison have just 10 starters back and brought in zero starters in the portal. Will that end up burning them in their first season in the Mountain West?
Does the run of quarterback development continue?
When Cole Payton was selected by the Eagles with the 178th pick of the NFL Draft, that marked the fifth Bison starting quarterback drafted in the past 11 years. Nathan Hayes — the heir apparent to Payton — now has the pressure of keeping that run going. Hayes appeared in 10 games last season. He completed 57% of his passes for 381 yards with four touchdowns and one interception. Hayes has been in the system since 2022, so there should not be a learning curve of any sort. But he takes over an offense that does not have its top two rushers or receivers from a season ago.
North Dakota State 2026 Season Win Total Pick: Under 8.5 (+140)
Given the track record of North Dakota State, it is understandable that the team enters its first season in the Mountain West as one of the short shots to win the conference. That being said, it seems the lofty expectations of this team are somewhat high. The loss of talent in the transfer portal was immense, and there was not much brought back to supplement those losses. The Mountain West is no power conference, but these are teams built with former Power Four players that have some strong talent. There should be doubts about the Bison’s ability to just walk in and dominate.
The Bison must also go to Air Force, UNLV, Hawaii and New Mexico in conference play. That’s road trips to all of the contenders. The home schedule is far from daunting — especially non-conference games against Fordham and Sacramento State — but Wyoming, Nevada and UTEP all have potential for improvement this season. Can NDSU really come out on top of the majority of their MW road games? Doubtful.
NORTHERN ILLINOIS HUSKIES
Chaos is the word that best describes the offseason Northern Illinois went through. In February, their head coach — Thomas Hammock — departed for a job in the NFL with the Seattle Seahawks. Rob Harley was named the interim head coach in his stead. The roster turnover was immense, especially on defense.
The chaos continued into July, but in a positive sense when Taron Dickens suddenly became available in the transfer portal. Still, Harley has his hands full. The defense is building from the ground up, he seems to be a lame-duck coach and the team is transitioning to a new conference. Perhaps the Huskies can shock the Mountain West like they shocked Notre Dame two years ago, but there is a lot working against one of the conference’s new additions.
Is Taron Dickens the answer NIU needed at quarterback?
Two weeks prior to starting work on this guide, the quarterback position looked bleak for NIU. Brady Davidson and Jalen Macon were the only returners for the program. The two had combined to complete fewer than 50% of their passes for four touchdowns and three interceptions, and they were set to duke it out for the job. However, one-time UNC commit and former Western Carolina quarterback Taron Dickens was released by the Tar Heels due to academic issues in mid-July, and the Huskies struck. Dickens appeared in 18 games at Western Carolina. He completed 271 of 365 passes for 3,508 yards with 38 touchdowns to two interceptions while adding 97 rushes for 321 yards and a score. He also set an NCAA record for consecutive completions in a single game when he completed 46 straight passes against Wofford. His arrival is a huge win for the program.
What are the expectations for this defense?
Harley ran this unit last season, so there is some familiarity with the pieces, but this unit is being overhauled in a big way. The top 14 tacklers from 2025 are all gone. The leading returnee in that category is defensive end Jay’Shon Thomas with 21 tackles and two sacks. In order to offset the losses, Harley brought in quite a few bodies, but none come from the Power Four level, and most are FCS or even JUCO transfers. The Mountain West will not be confused for the SEC, but there are some very good offenses in this conference. Can Harley do his best work and rebuild this unit while the plane is in the air, or will this turn out to be one of the worst defenses in the country?
Is Harley set up for failure?
Harley is leading this team in 2026, but it is important to note he is just the interim head coach. Hammock caught the program by surprise when he left his alma mater for a job as the highest-paid running back coach in the NFL with the Seahawks in late February. For the sake of continuity, the athletic department promoted Harley, but he is in just his second season with the program. The roster is completely new, and the program is making the transition into a new conference. It seems Harley is in place to take the lumps before ultimately being replaced. How does that manifest for a team projected to win three or four games this season? This could get ugly quickly in DeKalb.
Northern Illinois 2026 Season Win Total Pick: Under 3.5 (-110)
Data and statistics are always the best way to evaluate and project teams in sports, but sometimes vibes do matter. The vibes for Northern Illinois heading into the 2026 season aren’t great, and then there is the data. No returning starters on defense, a new offense and quarterback for the offense and a new conference. None of that adds up to a positive outlook.
The schedule for the Huskies is insanely difficult as well. In non-conference, they will have road games at Iowa, Arizona and Georgia State. They avoid New Mexico in conference play, but they go to Wyoming, UNLV (off a bye week) and North Dakota State. Hawaii and Air Force make the trip to DeKalb as well. All of this likely equates to an ugly season for a team experiencing a hectic offseason.
SAN JOSE STATE SPARTANS
It is fitting that blue is the main color for San Jose State, because sadness is the lone emotion any thought of the Spartan program evokes. SJSU has not won a bowl game since 2015, and it has not won more than seven games in a single season since 2012 (that lone bowl win was a 6-7 season). It seems that the Spartans are in for much of the same in 2026.
Ken Niumatalolo has a large rebuild on his hands. Only three starters are back for San Jose State, and they added only two starters in the transfer portal. Niumatalolo did a fantastic job in his first season at the helm in a similar situation, but that was with an ingenuitive offense that took the league by surprise. This is his third season, and many in the conference have seen this team’s tendencies. Is everything truly as bleak as it looks?
Who will be doing the spreading and the shredding?
Offensive coordinator Craig Stutzmann’s Spread & Shred offense took the Mountain West by storm two seasons ago, but it fizzled in 2025. This season, the offense has a completely new depth chart at quarterback, outside of one-time UCLA transfer Robert McDaniel. Luke Weaver is the presumed winner of the QB battle. Weaver started two games — Sam Houston State and Portland State — at Hawaii last season in place of the injured Micah Alejado. He won both, completing 53 of 85 passes for 534 yards, five touchdowns and one interception. The redshirt senior is seasoned and well-traveled, having worked his way up from Modesto Junior College two years ago. He likely gives the Spartans the best chance in this offense.
Does another wide receiver emerge?
The common theme for the Spartans in Stutzmann’s offense has been the emergence of a previously non-heralded player at receiver. In his first season, Nick Nash erupted for 1,382 yards and 16 touchdowns. Last season, Danny Scudero caught 88 passes for 1,297 yards and 10 touchdowns. Who is next in line? It could be any of these receivers, as the top five pass-catchers from last season depart. Four transfers make up the receiver room, but one name to watch is Anthony Ivey. Ivey is a former four-star recruit who transferred in from Penn State. This is obviously a massive step down for him — which could be a red flag — but the pedigree is there, and so too is the system to maximize his talents.
Can Niumatalolo do it again?
On paper, this looks rough for Niumatalolo. The Spartans lost 24 starters to the transfer portal and brought in just two, according to Phil Steele. Only three full-time starters return from a three-win team. Receiver, defensive line and defensive back are position groups which lost every starter and need to be rebuilt. There are some former Power Four transfers in the mix, but all are making the transition to San Jose State for a reason. Niumatalolo is a good coach who surprised the entire conference with a seven-win season when he arrived. He has continuity on his staff, but he’ll have to do one of his best coaching jobs of a long career to get this group into the mix in the Mountain West.
San Jose State 2026 Season Win Total Pick: Under 4.5 (+100)
Perhaps the Spartans can surprise the Mountain West like they did in 2023 when they won seven games in Niumatalolo’s inaugural season. That was due to a surprising offense and a favorable schedule, and neither seem to be in the cards for San Jose State this season.
The Spartans have difficult road trips against USC, Hawaii and Air Force on the schedule. They must host an experienced Fresno State squad in non-conference play, as well as Wyoming, New Mexico, UNLV and North Dakota State. None of that includes spots against Eastern Michigan and UTEP on the road, which are coin flips at best. In this preview, I was wrong about Niumatalolo in 2023, but I’ll take my chances and say he can’t do it again.
UNLV REBELS
This has been an unprecedented run for UNLV. The Rebels have won 30 games over the last three seasons and made an appearance in the Mountain West Championship all three years. None of those trips to the title game have ended with UNLV hoisting a trophy, and now the feel-good story of the little ol’ Rebels is turning into expectations of success from the fanbase. Dan Mullen did his part in his first season at the helm, but he must do it again with another roster built on the backs of transfers.
If not now, when? The conference has been completely overhauled. Gone are the Boise State Broncos, which bested UNLV in all three of the previous conference title games. The Rebels are the premier program in the conference now, as crazy as it sounds. Mullen keeps a cool exterior, but failing to win Mountain West — let alone not even making it — would be a colossal failure for him.
Three Burning Questions For The 2026 Season
Will the run of success at quarterback continue?
UNLV has not returned a starting quarterback since Doug Brumfield in 2023. Five quarterbacks have started for the team over that span, and the Rebels still accumulated 30 wins and made three conference title games. This season, the presumed starter is Auburn transfer — and one-time five-star prospect — Jackson Arnold. Dan Mullen took in Anthony Colandrea last season, made him Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year and then got him a payday at Nebraska. Could he do the same for Arnold? Behind him is former Michigan quarterback Alex Orji, who is coming off a catastrophic leg injury and was not fully healthy in spring. The success of the co-favorite in the Mountain West rests on whether or not Mullen can work his magic at the most important position once again.
Who emerges at the other skill positions?
Running back Jai’den “Jet” Thomas is a known commodity for UNLV. Thomas ran for 1,036 yards, averaged 7.2 yards per carry and scored 13 total touchdowns last season. Outside of the First-Team All-Conference back, there is not much returning production. The top three receivers from last season departed in some form or fashion. There are big expectations for wide receiver Taeshaun Lyons, the leading returnee at the position (13 receptions, 222 yards). Outside of that, both running back depth and the wide receiver room as a whole are filled with transfers expected to carry large loads for the offense.
Does a calm offseason lead to improvement for the defense?
Defensive coordinator Paul Guenther joined the staff last March as an associate head coach and safeties coach, but was thrust into his current role when Zach Arnett resigned in April. Those around the program say Guenther did not have the ability to install his own scheme, and it led to some poor results. UNLV finished 104th in the country in opponent EPA per play, gave up 6.4 yards per play and 5.2 yards per carry. Guenther now has a full offseason to install his defense, but only four starters return. Either way, there is no excuse to lean on when it comes to preparation. This unit must be better this season if the Rebels are to finally win a conference title.
UNLV 2026 Season Win Total Pick: Under 8.5 (-180)
Logic would dictate that UNLV just cannot keep up the run of success at quarterback the program has experienced the last three seasons. This depth chart seems to have more flaws to it than previous ones, especially with Orji coming off the horrendous injury he suffered last season. The former Michigan signal-caller is somewhat limited as a passer. If he isn’t the same athlete, what happens if Arnold struggles and loses the job? It’s also hard to buy the excuse the staff is selling when it comes to last season’s defensive effort. This could be another subpar unit.
That’s not to say that this team will be terrible, but nine or more wins seems like a real challenge for this group. UNLV will host both Memphis and Cal in the non-conference portion of its schedule. It has to face Hawaii and New Mexico on the road. North Dakota State will make the trip to Allegiant as well. The schedule, along with some flaws in the roster, make it seem like eight wins is an extremely likely outcome for the Rebels.
UTEP MINERS
The betting market does not have much faith in Scotty Walden and the Miners. UTEP is the longest shot on the board to win the Mountain West at DraftKings (80-1), and the team has the lowest win total in the conference. The Miners won’t win the conference, but there is a silver lining.
This is a roster with some upside and a good amount of returning production. They were a sneaky solid defense at times last season, and the staff has done a decent job plugging some holes with the transfer portal. There is certainly a strong chance this is not the squad that finishes last in the Mountain West.
Can EJ Colson spark a rebuilding offense?
Colson — a transfer from Incarnate Word — started a game and appeared in another for UCF back in 2024. That did not go well — he went 9 of 16 for 64 yards and threw a pick — and he made his way to the Cardinals. Last season, Colson showed some promise. He completed 70.9% of his passes and threw for 2,142 yards with 16 touchdowns and four interceptions. He also added 287 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. Head coach Scotty Walden named Colson the starter in May, and with that comes a Herculean task: turn around an offense which was 131st in EPA per play and 129th in success rate. And do it with the team’s top four rushers and top seven receivers all out the door.
Could the running game surprise some defenses in the Mountain West?
It’s hard to project what an offense will do when not a single returning starter is back, but on paper UTEP could have done much worse in trying to improve its ground game. The Miners averaged only 116 yards per game and 3.7 yards per carry last season. The program has not averaged more than 3.9 per attempt since 2022. In order to fix it, Walden brought in some help along the offensive line. Left guard Brian Williams earned All-Conference honors in the SWAC last season, and right tackle Jaymon Lamb played in seven games for North Texas. At running back, the crown jewel seems to be Missouri transfer Tavorus Jones, a former four-star prospect who appeared in 20 games for the Tigers.
Can the defense keep it up?
UTEP quietly put together a strong defensive campaign in 2025. The Miners finished 14th in the country in opponent EPA per play and 20th in success rate. They placed in the 97th percentile in explosive play rate allowed and the 94th percentile in late-down success rate. Only four starters are back, but there is some talent here. Middle linebacker Jayden Wilson returns after finishing second in tackles (92) and third in tackles for loss (7.5). Justin Content and Xavier Smith are roaming the secondary once again. The two combined for 10 pass breakups, seven tackles for loss and two interceptions last season. Kyle Beyer takes over as defensive coordinator, but served as an analyst for this team last season. There is certainly a strong chance this could be an above-average unit in the Mountain West.
UTEP 2026 Season Win Total Pick: Over 3.5 (+110)
There is certainly enough on this roster on offense to be somewhat optimistic about their chances of climbing out of the national cellar when it comes to production. A lot will lie on the shoulders of Colson at quarterback, but he has the upside. The defense could also be better once it gets to conference play.
The Miners will take their lumps. They have road trips to Oklahoma and Michigan to start the season. They must also go to New Mexico, North Dakota State and Air Force while hosting Hawaii. But there are opportunities on this schedule in the form of matchups with Texas Southern, Oregon State, Nevada and San Jose State. If they spring an upset, this is a team that could achieve four wins on the season.
WYOMING COWBOYS
It’s always difficult to take over for a legend, especially one who had the success Craig Bohl did in his time at Laramie. Still, Jay Sawvel’s time at the helm has been disappointing, even in the context of filling big shoes. The Cowboys have just seven wins under Sawvel, and the offense has been one of the worst in the conference in that time. The pressure is building despite the high elevation.
If there was a time Sawvel could save his bacon, it would be this season. He brought in an offensive mind to fix the team’s biggest problem and landed a decent fish in the transfer portal to play quarterback. While the Cowboys lost talent to the portal, a majority of this roster has been part of the program. This could be a massively improved team if the right pieces hit.
How does the Cowboys’ new offense fare?
In the two seasons under Sawvel, the Cowboys’ offense has taken a dump. Despite nine returning starters last season, Wyoming averaged 16 points and 315 yards per game. It ranked 128th in the country in EPA per play and 124th in success rate. To address those issues, Sawvel brought in Christian Taylor to run the offense. Taylor most recently served as an offensive advisor for the Buffalo Bills and was the offensive coordinator for William & Mary from 2020 to 2023. In his time at William & Mary, Taylor led an offense which was great at generating explosive runs, using backs out of the backfield and topped the country in passing efficiency. All of that will be needed to improve this unit.
But seriously, will the offense be better?
Outside of the addition of Taylor on the staff, Sawvel brought in one of his former recruits at William & Mary: quarterback Tyler Hughes. Hughes is a dual-threat who totaled 3,000 yards passing and rushing last season and 31 touchdowns. He is familiar with Taylor’s system as well. The Cowboys’ leading rusher from last season — Samuel Harris — is back for his sophomore season, and he lines up behind an offensive line with two starters and 41 career starts back. The top four receivers from last season are gone, but this is reportedly a strong group of tight ends, which is important in the new scheme. With Hughes pulling the trigger and adding a dynamic the Wyoming offense has missed in recent seasons, the needle is clearly pointing up.
Is Sawvel the guy for the job?
Sawvel is in the third year of a five-year contract, and the first two years weren’t great. The former defensive coordinator took over a program which had three losing seasons under his predecessor, Bohl. One of those was the 2020 COVID-shortened season. Sawvel has only known losing seasons in his time at the top in Laramie. This might be Sawvel’s best chance at a winning record. According to Phil Steele, while there aren’t many returning starters, 77.2% of this roster is ‘homegrown,’ meaning a lot of guys who have been in the program. If the offensive changes hit, this should be a team that can improve on its four wins last season.
Wyoming 2026 Season Win Total Pick: Under 5.5 (-115)
The upside of Wyoming begins with its offense. If Hughes and offensive coordinator Christian Taylor are the match they look like on paper, this offense could really stun the conference. That would allow Sawvel to focus on a defense which has a strong foundation.
Wyoming does have a difficult schedule in the context of the Mountain West, which could be what holds it back. The Cowboys draw Hawaii, North Dakota State, Air Force, UNLV and New Mexico. Two of those — NDSU and UNLV — are on the road and another two opponents come off bye weeks. Factor in road games against Colorado State and Central Michigan, and you’re asking Wyoming to come out on the right side of 50-50 contests more often than not.
