Marshall vs. Louisiana:
In a year of realignment and conference changes, the Sun Belt held true to its traditional values. This is the only conference with divisions and so we get East vs. West in the Sun Belt Championship Game between Marshall and Louisiana. The Ragin’ Cajuns and Thundering Herd both went 7-1 in conference play to secure a spot in the big game on Saturday.
Through tiebreakers, Louisiana ranked higher, so the game will be in Lafayette, making this the third straight road game for Marshall, whose lone conference loss was a 24-23 defeat at Georgia Southern in a game they led 23-3 with seven minutes left. The Eagles scored two touchdowns in the final 2:15 to win the game.
***Top College Football Betting Resources***
*Join thousands of other sports bettors and unlock access to picks, public betting splits data, & the VSiN live video broadcast by upgrading to VSiN Pro. Grab your first month for less than $10.*
- NCAAF Expert Picks
- NCAAF Betting Hub
- NCAAF 2024 Week-By-Week Schedule
- Parlay Calculator
- NCAAF Betting Splits
- NCAAF Betting Odds
Marshall would like to have that one back, but they’ll have to win their first Sun Belt title on the road to make up for it.
For all of this week’s college football insights, refer to our College Football Week 15 Hub.
Marshall Thundering Herd at Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (-5.5, 56.5)
Saturday, 7:30 p.m ET
It has been a really strong season for both teams. Marshall had that aforementioned fluky loss to Georgia Southern with a late-game collapse to go with losses to Ohio State and Virginia Tech in the non-conference portion of the season.
Louisiana lost a 24-22 decision to South Alabama in a game where they were held to six points through three quarters, but the only other blemish was a defeat at the hands of Tulane, who, up until Thanksgiving, was very much in the running to be a College Football Playoff team.
Because of the division format, there aren’t many common opponents between the two teams and they didn’t play each other, but the strength of each division was much closer this season than it has been in past seasons, so relative imbalance of opponents has been cut down a bit.
With that in mind, it’s worth noting, and likely a catalyst behind the line movement we’ve seen towards Louisiana, that the Ragin’ Cajuns fared better in conference in both offensive and defensive yards per play, posting a 1.4 YPP differential vs. the Herd’s 0.44. Louisiana actually wrapped up the regular season tied for fourth in overall yards per play, trailing Miami, Ole Miss, and Boise State.
South Alabama (9th, 6.7) and Tulane (17th, 6.56), who were responsible for Louisiana’s two losses, are quite a bit higher than Marshall (60th, 5.91) and so that may also be a positive thing for the Ragin’ Cajuns. South Alabama was not an opponent for Marshall in crossover action, as the Thundering Herd faced Southern Miss and Louisiana-Monroe from the West Division, with ULM 112th in yards per play and Southern Miss among the seven worst offenses in college football.
It should be noted, however, that Marshall does rely very heavily on the run, with 465 rushes against 307 passes. A.J. Turner has 8.3 yards per carry and the QBs have a 25/4 TD/INT ratio, with starter Braylon Braxton at 17/2 for the season. Marshall doesn’t beat themselves and they’ve been able to take advantage and win close games as a result.
But, Louisiana is not far behind in ground success and has had a more potent passing attack. I would expect Marshall can hang around for a while, but Louisiana ultimately pulls away at Cajun Field.
Pick: Louisiana -5.5
