College Football Bowl Game and CFP Quarterfinals Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Matt Youmans
Here are my best bets for this week’s college football bowl games and CFP quarterfinals:
Alabama vs. Indiana (-7)
Rose Bowl
Thursday, January 1
In how he coaches and in the way he talks, Curt Cignetti often appears to be a mirror image of Nick Saban, and that makes sense considering Cignetti was a part of Saban’s first staff at Alabama in 2007. So it’s ironic that Cignetti is about to lead top-ranked Indiana into the Rose Bowl to face the Crimson Tide on New Year’s Day.
In two years with the Hoosiers, Cignetti has compiled an incredible 24-2 record, recently capturing the Big Ten championship by upsetting Ohio State. Cignetti was hired at Indiana around the same time Saban retired. In two years at Alabama, Kalen DeBoer is 20-7 as Saban’s successor, so far falling short of the Tide’s higher expectations.
DeBoer can shift the storyline with a win in Pasadena, but that seems unlikely to happen. Cignetti is the hottest story in college football for a reason. The Hoosiers have the nation’s No. 2 scoring defense (10.8 ppg) and their quarterback, Fernando Mendoza, is the Heisman Trophy winner. From a historical perspective, it’s obviously odd to see Indiana as a 7-point favorite against Alabama in a playoff quarterfinal, but the betting line tells an accurate tale.
In Cignetti’s first season, Indiana stepped up in class twice and came up short both times by losing road games to Ohio State and Notre Dame, teams that eventually met in the national title game. In his second season, the Hoosiers won at Oregon in October and knocked off the Buckeyes in Indianapolis in early December to eliminate any doubts about their heavyweight status.
Mendoza gets most of the headlines, but the Indiana defense has been dominant. The Hoosiers held Ohio State to 58 rushing yards and pitched a scoreless second half in the 13-10 win in the conference title game. The Tide’s inability to run the ball — a shortcoming that was fully exposed in a 28-7 loss to Georgia in the SEC title game — will put a big burden on quarterback Ty Simpson’s shoulders during what is expected to be a rare rainy day at the Rose Bowl. Simpson will need to play like a superstar for Alabama to have a shot.
Saban coached his final game two years ago in Pasadena, where the Tide fell to Michigan in a thriller. This is not a title-caliber Tide team, and the Saban clone is on the opposite sideline. I’m betting on Cignetti with a lot of confidence.
Indiana is significantly better on both sides of the ball and should win by double digits, but there’s always a chance things go sideways and this turns into a sweat, so I’ll also play the Hoosiers on the moneyline and in a teaser.
Best Bets: Indiana -7 and moneyline -235.
Mississippi vs. Georgia (-6.5)
Sugar Bowl
Thursday, January 1
After being ditched by Lane Kiffin, the Rebels played with great energy and focus while blowing out Tulane 41-10 in the CFP first round. It was a team on a mission to prove it could win without its former coach. The Ole Miss offense, led by quarterback Trinidad Chambliss and Kewan Lacy, rolled up 497 total yards against the Green Wave. This will be a totally different challenge. Kirby Smart has coached up the Georgia defense, which allowed an average of 7.3 points in the past four games. With their dramatically improved defense, the Bulldogs will be tough to beat if quarterback Gunner Stockton continues his efficient play. Stockton totaled seven touchdown passes with one interception in late-season victories over Alabama and Texas.
Best Bets: Georgia -6.5 and a 6-point teaser with Georgia -0.5/Indiana -1.
Miami (FL) vs. Ohio State (-9.5)
Cotton Bowl
Wednesday, December 31
A year ago at this time, Ryan Day’s job was in jeopardy, but the Buckeyes stormed through the playoffs with four big wins, including two blowouts. The road will be much tougher this time. Ohio State’s defense (8.2 ppg) is as good as it gets, but the offense has not been as explosive with freshman quarterback Julian Sayin. The Miami defense forced three turnovers and limited Texas A&M to 89 rushing yards in a 10-3 road win in the first round. Mark Fletcher rushed for 172 yards to carry the Hurricanes, but if Fletcher is neutralized in this game, can Carson Beck move the offense through the air? Beck and coach Mario Cristobal inspire little faith, yet Miami is strong enough defensively to threaten to pull the upset in a low-scoring game. I’m waiting for +10 to resurface, but will take the underdog and buy the half-point if needed.
Best Bet: Miami (FL) +10 (-125)
Iowa vs. Vanderbilt (-5.5)
Reliaquest Bowl
Wednesday, December 31
The Commodores (10-2) could have been a worthy playoff team, but losses at Alabama and Texas left them on the outside looking in, and quarterback Diego Pavia also came up short in the Heisman race. The disrespect Pavia showed to Indiana’s Mendoza was a classless display and he needs to be humbled. The Iowa defense should be up to the task. In Vanderbilt’s last four games, Pavia was phenomenal, averaging 373.5 passing yards with 12 touchdowns and three interceptions while also running for 368 yards and four touchdowns. The Hawkeyes, who held Indiana to 20 points and Oregon to 18 points, like to get dirty and make it ugly.
Best Bet: Iowa +5.5
Last week: 3-0 against the spread
Season: 45-32-5
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