College Football Playoff National Championship Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Matt Youmans
Here is my best bet for tonight’s CFP National Championship:
Indiana (-7.5) vs. Miami (FL)
A Miami team that is loaded with NFL prospects is a home underdog in the national championship game, and Indiana coach Curt Cignetti is well aware of the oddsmakers’ line.
“I think the 8.5-point spread is a setup,” Cignetti said with a smirk.
Fox Sports analyst Chris Fallica has called the point spread “stupid” and disrespectful to the Hurricanes, who are essentially hosting the Hoosiers in an improbable college football title game Monday night. It does seem bizarre that Indiana, a 100-1 longshot to win the championship prior to the season, is such a big favorite in Miami.
Still, the top-ranked Hoosiers (15-0) have earned the favorite’s role by knocking off Ohio State to win the Big Ten title before blowing out Alabama and Oregon in the playoffs. Cignetti is close to achieving perfection, 50 years after Bob Knight coached the Indiana basketball team to a 32-0 record and the NCAA championship in the 1975-76 season.
Cignetti mirrors Knight in many ways, and Knight had a famous quote that is fitting for the preview of this title game: “Dumb loses more games than smart wins.”
Cignetti is a coaching genius, incredibly detailed in every aspect of roster building and game preparation, and his football team is a reflection of him. The Hoosiers, while not as talented across the board as the Hurricanes, don’t beat themselves with dumb plays. Miami is more prone to making big mistakes.
The coaching matchup is Indiana’s primary edge. Cignetti is as sharp as it gets and Hurricanes coach Mario Cristobal is a game-management mistake waiting to happen. But if Cristobal can coach a clean game Monday night, his team is talented enough to pull the upset.
While the Hoosiers obviously do have NFL prospects — quarterback Fernando Mendoza is the heavy favorite to be the No. 1 overall pick in the draft — their success comes from being a cohesive and highly intelligent team. The Hurricanes have more size and strength on the offensive and defensive lines. Miami’s fast and fearless pass rushers, Rueben Bain and Akheem Mesidor, must put heat on Mendoza to help a shaky secondary that struggles in coverage.
When the Hurricanes were upset this season by Louisville and SMU, Carson Beck threw a total of six interceptions. Just as Cristobal needs to avoid coaching clumsiness, Beck needs to avoid costly errors. Miami also must use its powerful line to pave running lanes for Mark Fletcher. The Canes’ plan will be to run the ball to control the clock and shorten the game.
Here are five prop bets worth a look:
* Fernando Mendoza completions Over 17.5 (-105, Westgate SuperBook): The Heisman winner did not put up huge passing numbers against Alabama (14-for-16, 192 yards) or Oregon (17-for-20, 177 yards), but those games turned into blowouts early and there was no need to throw the ball much in the second half. This game should be more competitive, and the Hoosiers will look to attack the Hurricanes’ suspect secondary.
* Carson Beck passing yards Under 202.5 (-115, Circa Sports): When the Hurricanes won their first two playoff games in the underdog role, they emphasized the running attack. Beck passed for 103 yards against Texas A&M and 138 yards against Ohio State.
* Beck longest completion Under 35.5 yards (-115, DraftKings): The Hoosiers’ ball-hawking secondary surrenders few big plays.
* Mark Fletcher rushing yards Over 69.5 (-115, Westgate). Miami has a size advantage with its offensive line, and Fletcher has 58 carries for 395 yards (6.8 per carry) in three playoff games.
* Miami’s first drive results in a punt (-125, DraftKings): The defenses will have an advantage due to the offensive play-calling being conservative as neither team wants to make the first big mistake early in the game.
The Hoosiers are not infallible, narrowly escaping upsets on the road at Iowa and Penn State this season. I’ve got a futures ticket on Indiana at 10-1 to win the title, so this is a bit of a hedge, but the Hurricanes will put up a fight as home ‘dogs. My prediction is Indiana, 27-20. While most of the market is at 7.5, DraftKings moved back to 8.5 on Monday morning.
Best Bet: Miami +8.5 (-115)
Season record: 48-36-5 against the spread
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