College Football Playoff Semifinals Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Matt Youmans
Here are my best bets for this week’s CFP Semifinals:
Miami (FL) (-3.5) vs. Ole Miss
Fiesta Bowl
Thursday, January 8
A Disney movie might someday be made about Trinidad Chambliss, who’s authoring one of the most inspiring underdog stories in college football history. There’s no need to wait for a movie because the script is in progress, playing out in reality, and the only mystery is whether the story ends with Chambliss leading Mississippi to the national championship.
Ole Miss has the feel of a team of destiny. Ditched by their narcissistic coach, Lane Kiffin, prior to the playoffs, the Rebels have rallied to win two games to reach the semifinals. Chambliss, a senior quarterback, was a dazzling playmaker in an upset of SEC champion Georgia on New Year’s Day in New Orleans. He passed for 362 yards and two touchdowns in a dramatic 39-34 comeback victory.
In the next scene, the Rebels run into the Miami Hurricanes in the Fiesta Bowl in Glendale, Arizona. With a dominant defense that suffocated Texas A&M and Ohio State, the favored Hurricanes plan to put intense pressure on Chambliss and crush the underdog en route to the title game, which will be played in Miami. If the Canes earn a homecoming game, it’s a good story. If Chambliss wins again, it’s a fairytale fit for a movie.
Chambliss’ story is almost too good to be true. In the fall of 2024, he won the starting job at Ferris State, a small school in Big Rapids, Michigan. In his first start, he threw two interceptions in a lopsided loss. The season ended with Chambliss leading Ferris to the Division II national championship. There’s much more to the story, but the short version is he landed an offer from Ole Miss and only caught his big break when the starting quarterback went down to injury in the third game of this season.
Chambliss and the Rebels are on the proverbial mission to prove they can win without Kiffin, a phony who’s pretending to root for his former team from his new home at LSU. Ole Miss’ new coach, Pete Golding, is an authentic character with a shot to be cast as another heroic figure. The storylines are great for theatre. How about the betting line?
As a handicapper, it’s important to be objective. Don’t get caught up in the drama and bet on what you want to see happen, but bet on what you expect will happen.
Miami has the superior defense in this matchup. Chambliss is about to face adversity in the form of Rueben Bain and the Canes’ relentless pass rush. Miami’s defense was too much for the Aggies and Buckeyes, who each had talented quarterbacks yet combined to score only 17 points in the two playoff games. Chambliss is an improvisational artist with the scrambling ability to escape pressure, but this can’t be a one-man show, and he’ll need help from his line and running back Kewan Lacy.
The Hurricanes have not asked quarterback Carson Beck to do too much lately. Beck had 103 and 138 passing yards in the two playoff games, while Mark Fletcher carried the mail with 262 yards rushing in the playoffs. At some point soon, Beck will need to do more. But when Beck tries to do too much, he can screw it up, which is why the approach has been conservative.
Another element of the matchup to consider is the kicking game, and the Rebels have the edge with Lucas Carneiro, who made field goals of 47, 55 and 56 yards against Georgia. “Cool Hand” Lucas has looked better than many of the kickers in the NFL.
Miami was the underdog in the first two playoff games and now flips to the favorite. The Canes can be fragile favorites, as they were when laying two touchdowns in a home loss to Louisville on Oct. 17. I don’t love this play, but do like it enough to roll with the Rebels as hungry dogs.
Best Bet: Ole Miss +3.5
Indiana (-3.5) vs. Oregon
Peach Bowl
Friday, January 9
Betting against Curt Cignetti, who also could be the subject of a movie, is generally a bad idea. Cignetti has compiled an incredible 25-2 record in two years as Hoosiers coach and just humiliated Alabama in the Rose Bowl. The media hype is off the charts and the skeptics have now jumped on the overflowing Indiana bandwagon. As a bettor, you want to be ahead of the curve on teams — as I have been with IU — and not late to the party. Is this the time to jump off the bandwagon?
When these Big Ten teams met on Oct. 11, Oregon was a 7.5-point home favorite and I was on the underdog. Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza threw a pick-six early in the fourth quarter that allowed the Ducks to tie the score at 20, but the Hoosiers regrouped to win 30-20. There was no doubt which team was stronger at the line of scrimmage on both sides.
The line was too inflated in the first meeting, but the number has been adjusted more than 10 points for the rematch on a neutral field. Indiana actually gets a slight advantage by playing in Atlanta, where the stadium will be full of delirious Hoosiers, including VSiN’s Wes Reynolds. Cignetti is currently the sharpest football coach on the planet, but Oregon’s Dan Lanning and his staff rank among the best, so this is in no way a coaching mismatch.
If the Ducks’ Dante Moore declares for the NFL Draft, he and Mendoza will be the top quarterback prospects and potentially the first two overall picks. Mendoza is a -500 favorite at DraftKings to go No. 1. Moore will want to make a statement in this game. What’s interesting is neither quarterback was great in the first meeting when Moore threw two interceptions.
In rematches, I typically prefer to play the loser of the first game, especially when the loser was the favorite. (Recent examples were Georgia over Alabama in the SEC title game, and Alabama over Oklahoma in the CFP first round.) The Hoosiers were fortunate to escape upsets on the road at Iowa and Penn State this season, so they are not infallible or unbeatable.
I’ve got tickets on Indiana (10-1) and Oregon (8-1) to win the championship and believe the winner of this game will win it all. I have a small bet on the Ducks +4 and predict the Hoosiers advance by a field goal.
Best Bet: Oregon +3.5
Last week: 3-2 against the spread
Season: 48-34-5
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