Week 1 College Football Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Matt Youmans
Summer vacations are history, the kids are back in school, and it’s time to notify the family that you are not to be disturbed on weekends until sometime in 2027. It’s finally football season, the best time of year.
The college football kickoff has been mostly about underdogs — Bill Belichick coached North Carolina to a surprising win in Ireland on the last Saturday in August before 29-point dog UMass blew out Rutgers on Thursday — so let’s stick with the underdog theme for this weekend’s best bets.
Fresno State at USC (-22.5)
Lincoln Riley is known for coaching Heisman Trophy-winning quarterbacks and overhyped teams, and his current USC team appears to be legit. Senior quarterback Jayden Maiava, a former UNLV transfer, operates an explosive offense. Is the defense tough enough? The Trojans will get a strength test on the ground from Fresno State, which has a massive offensive line paving the way for star running backs Bryson Donelson and Rayshon “Speedy” Luke.
Matt Entz is a bet-on coach. He guided North Dakota State to two FCS national championships in five years (60-11 record) and led the Bulldogs to a 9-4 finish punctuated by a win in the Arizona Bowl last year. The quarterback is a question mark. Jayden Mandal will get his first career start under the Friday night lights in the L.A. Coliseum, so that’s scary, but he’s got a solid support system with experienced linemen, running backs and receivers. The Pac-12 dog should put up a good fight.
College Football Best Bet: Fresno State +22.5
Miami (FL) (-24.5) at Stanford
Duke transfer Darian Mensah is a quarterback upgrade for the Hurricanes, who return leading rusher Mark Fletcher (1,192 yards, 10 touchdowns) and leading receiver Malachi Toney (109 catches, 1,211 yards and 10 touchdowns). Miami will miss NFL first-round draft picks Rueben Bain and Akheem Mesidor on the defensive front.
The Cardinal turned in a respectable performance last week in a 37-27 victory over Hawaii as veteran Davis Warren passed for 310 yards and Micah Ford rushed for 99 yards and three touchdowns, but the Hawaii defense rarely pressured Warren and that will change in this Friday night matchup in Palo Alto. While the Hurricanes could be too fast and talented for Stanford, it should not be easy to cover this huge number on the road. If this becomes a blowout, the score should go over the total.
College Football Best Bets: Stanford +24.5 and Over 47.5 (half-unit each)
UNLV (-3) at Hawaii
With a hurricane lingering near the islands, the forecast calls for rain and winds Saturday night in Honolulu. Adverse weather would favor the Rebels, who can run the ball far more effectively with quarterback Jackson Arnold and running back Jet Thomas. Arnold accounted for 345 total yards (291 passing, 54 rushing) and three touchdowns in a 27-21 loss to Memphis. Still, the Rebels emerged from opening weekend with more injury problems, especially on their offensive line, and some holes were exposed in their defense.
Hawaii quarterback Micah Alejado, a former Bishop Gorman High star, was embarrassed in a 38-10 loss in his return to Las Vegas last year. Alejado and the Warriors were unimpressive last weekend in a loss at Stanford, but they are hungry for revenge and often a different team at home. Hawaii coach Timmy Chang is 21-6-1 ATS at home, including 13-5 as a home dog.
College Football Best Bets: Hawaii +3 and Under 56.5 (half-unit each)
UCLA (-1.5) at California
The three-win Bruins were bad last season, yet they did upset Penn State 42-37 as 24-point underdogs in Pasadena. Bob Chesney, who coached James Madison to the CFP, is rebuilding with transfers and has energized the program. Chesney and his staff, which includes former Raiders quarterback Derek Carr, will try to develop talented young quarterback Nico Iamaleava.
Tosh Lupoi, a former Oregon defensive coordinator, takes over a Golden Bears team that is also rebuilding. Cal is counting on sophomore quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele to be a rising star. Chesney is a proven winner and that is UCLA’s advantage.
College Football Best Bet: UCLA -1.5
Western Kentucky (-1.5) at Nevada
It’s now or never for Nevada coach Jeff Choate, who won three games in each of his first two seasons in Reno. Choate’s team is stronger on the offensive and defensive lines. The mystery man for the Wolf Pack is dual-threat quarterback Carter Jones. Hilltoppers coach Tyson Helton has a much better track record than Choate, but Helton has some unsolved mysteries to deal with, too. There are 138 FBS teams and Western Kentucky ranks 133rd in returning production with only six starters back and more than 60 new players.
College Football Best Bet: Nevada +1.5
Louisville vs. Mississippi (-6.5)
Dual-threat quarterback Trinidad Chambliss (4,464 total yards, 30 touchdowns) and running back Kewan Lacy (1,567 rushing yards, 24 TDs) will make the Ole Miss offense one of the nation’s best. Pete Golding is a head coach in a regular-season opener for the first time and he’s running into a wily veteran. Cardinals coach Jeff Brohm is 11-4 ATS as an underdog of seven points or more dating to his time at Purdue in 2018.
Brohm is a big-game hunter, and he’s got offensive firepower led by Ohio State transfer quarterback Lincoln Kienholz, running back Isaac Brown and an experienced line. The number has moved to 6.5 at most books, but +7 is still available in Las Vegas. Don’t be surprised if Brohm sings an upsetting tune Sunday in Nashville, Tennessee.
College Football Best Bet: Louisville +7
Last season: 50-36-5 against the spread
For more college football Week 1 best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Week 1 hub, exclusively on VSiN.
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