The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the college football games of Week 1. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s college football board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top trends and systems for this week’s CFB games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* Oddsmakers are leading you to water on low-total games in Weeks 0/1, especially with bigger favorites, as in games with totals of 48.5 or less and a favorite of four points or more, Under the total is 51-23 (68.9%) since 2013.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): Akron-Wake Forest (o/u at 48.5), Toledo-Michigan State (o/u at 47.5), Miami FL-Stanford (o/u at 48.5), Ohio-Nebraska (o/u at 45.5), Miami OH-Pittsburgh (o/u at 48.5), Northern Illinois-Iowa (o/u at 44.5), Western Michigan-Michigan (o/u at 48.5), Central Michigan-New Mexico (o/u at 46.5), Wisconsin-Notre Dame (o/u at 46.5)

* Under the total is 12-1-1 in Bruins-Golden Bears in-state rivalry since 2010
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): UCLA-California (o/u at 53.5)

* RUTGERS has gone 16-4 (80%) ATS in its last 20 non-conference games
Trend Match (PLAY): RUTGERS (-28.5 vs UMass)

* HAWAII is 16-2-2 ATS (88.9%) as a HOME UNDERDOG in conference games since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY): HAWAII (+3 vs UNLV)

* Under the total is 70-48-1 (59.3%) in ACC expected-tight matchups (within -3.5 to +3.5 line range) with totals <= 55.5 since 2015
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SMU-FLORIDA STATE (o/u at 52.5)

* Teams coming off an FBS loss in Game 1 and favored big (>=24 points) over an FCS team in Game 2 have gone just 48-71-2 ATS (40.3%) since 2012.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SACRAMENTO STATE (-37.5 vs Miss Valley State), NEW MEXICO STATE (-28.5 vs Mercyhurst)

College Football Stability Score plays for Week 1

If you were one of the many readers of the 2026 College Football Betting Guide, or alternatively, have been a VSiN subscriber for a while now. If so, you’re probably already familiar with the methodology Steve Makinen has successfully used for the last 13 years or so regarding college football Stability Scores heading into the start of each season. If not, in a nutshell, what these scores are is a quantitative way to determine each team’s level of stability as compared to how they left us in the prior season. It is one of the foremost strategies he employs every year to find value early. The thought behind it is that teams that are in more stable year-to-year situations are better bets early, while those that have undergone a lot of change in the offseason should be faded.

Steve keeps a handy chart on the Stability Scores of each FBS team and publishes them weekly for Weeks 0-3. Here are this week’s qualifying plays. There is a separate article on VSiN that goes in-depth about these plays and scores, with new studies conducted recently over the ever-changing landscape of the transfer portal in college football.

New head coaches are 92-154 SU and 111-133 ATS (45.5%) in the first four weeks of the CFB season versus returning head coaches since 2021
System Matches (FADE ALL): STANFORD, COASTAL CAROLINA, JAMES MADISON, PENN STATE, MICHIGAN, TULANE, SOUTH FLORIDA, FLORIDA, NORTH TEXAS, OKLAHOMA STATE, OHIO, MISSOURI STATE, NORTHERN ILLINOIS, COLORADO STATE, AUBURN, OREGON STATE, MEMPHIS, LSU, WASHINGTON STATE, OLE MISS

New defensive coordinators are 167-198 SU and 165-195 ATS (45.8%) in the first four weeks of the CFB season versus returning defensive coordinators since 2021
System Matches (FADE ALL): RUTGERS, TOLEDO, USC, STANFORD, PITTSBURGH, COASTAL CAROLINA, JAMES MADISON, SOUTH FLORIDA, FLORIDA, NORTH TEXAS, OKLAHOMA STATE, EAST CAROLINA, TEXAS STATE, NORTHERN ILLINOIS, COLORADO STATE, BAYLOR, OREGON STATE, MEMPHIS, WASHINGTON STATE, LOUISVILLE, SMU

Teams with 17+ total returning starters are 108-89 SU and 108-87 ATS (55.4%) in the first four weeks of the CFB season versus teams returning 16 or fewer since 2021
System Matches (PLAY ALL): USC, TEXAS A&M, UCLA, HOUSTON, NOTRE DAME

In 2026, these are our new College Football Stability System(s):

Play ON any team with a STABILITY SCORE EDGE of 6+ in non-conference games in the first four weeks of the season (Weeks 0, 1, 2, 3), assuming the game does not have a point spread of -30 or higher for either team. (336-224 SU and 303-245-12 ATS, 55.3% since 2013)

System Matches (PLAY ALL): EASTERN MICHIGAN, WEST VIRGINIA, LIBERTY, MARSHALL, WESTERN MICHIGAN, DUKE, FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL, FLORIDA ATLANTIC, TULSA, ALABAMA, NEBRASKA, HOUSTON, ARKANSAS STATE, WASHINGTON, NOTRE DAME

Play AGAINST any college football teams with STABILITY SCORES of 0-6 in non-conference games in the first four weeks of the season (Weeks 0, 1, 2, 3) versus teams with higher scores, assuming the game does not have a point spread of -30 or higher for either team (FADE record 260-138 SU and 218-175-4 ATS, 55.5% since 2013)
System Matches (FADE ALL): GEORGIA TECH, COASTAL CAROLINA, JAMES MADISON, PENN STATE, TULANE, SOUTH FLORIDA, FLORIDA, OKLAHOMA STATE, EAST CAROLINA, OHIO, COLORADO STATE, CALIFORNIA, AUBURN, OREGON STATE, MEMPHIS, LSU, WASHINGTON STATE

CFB Opening Week(s) Concepts to Consider

CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #1: Huge home favorites (-36 points or more) have been outstanding in FBS vs. FBS matchups in the opening week(s) of college football since 2013, going 24-0 SU and 18-6 ATS (75%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA (-41.5 vs UTEP), INDIANA (-40.5 vs North Texas), OHIO STATE (-50.5 vs Ball State), TEXAS A&M (-40.5 vs Missouri State)
* WATCH FOR SOUTH CAROLINA vs Kent State (-35.5 CURRENTLY) *

CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #2: Home-field advantage means a lot in early-season games in the rare opportunities when G5 teams host P4 non-conference foes. The hosts in these matchups have proven quite competitive, going 19-34 SU but 33-20 ATS (62.3%) over the last 13 seasons.
System Match (PLAY ATS): TULSA (+13.5 vs Oklahoma State)

CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #3: In addition to No. 2 above, be careful with the P4 vs. G5 non-conference games in Week 0/1 when the P4 home favorite isn’t expected to overwhelm the opponent, as the visiting G5 teams have proven heavily motivated to cover point spreads in recent years. In fact, this trend has turned dramatically since 2023, as P4 home favorites of -30 or fewer points are 42-5 SU vs. G5 teams in weeks 0/1 but just 18-29 ATS (38.3%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): RUTGERS (-28.5 vs UMass), WAKE FOREST (-23.5 vs Akron), ILLINOIS (-27.5 vs UAB), MICHIGAN STATE (-9.5 vs Toledo), USC (-22.5 vs Fresno State), ALABAMA (-27.5 vs East Carolina), HOUSTON (-20.5 vs Oregon State), NEBRASKA (-23.5 vs Ohio), WEST VIRGINIA (-21 vs Coastal Carolina), PITTSBURGH (-16.5 vs Miami OH), DUKE (-7.5 vs Tulane), OREGON (-24.5 vs Boise State), PENN STATE (-24.5 vs Marshall), TEXAS (-29.5 vs Texas State), MICHIGAN (-27.5 vs Western Michigan), MISSISSIPPI STATE (-28.5 vs Louisiana-Monroe), FLORIDA (-26.5 vs FAU), WASHINGTON (-23.5 vs Washington State)

CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #4: The most small of favorites AND hefty favorites win the early neutral-field showdowns between non-conference Power 4 foes, as those laying less 3.5 points or fewer are on a 11-4 SU and 10-4-1 ATS (71.4%) run since 2013, while those laying 12.5 points or more have gone 13-0 SU and 10-3 ATS (76.9%) in that same time frame.
System Match (PLAY): NOTRE DAME (-20.5 vs Wisconsin)

* Another thing to consider here is that all of these games have gone Under the total at a 26-15 (63.4%) rate since 2016.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): Baylor-Auburn (o/u at 58.5), Louisville-Ole Miss (o/u at 55.5), Wisconsin-Notre Dame (o/u at 46.5)

CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #5: In general, laying more than a field goal in weeks 0/1 with road favorites has not been a rewarding strategy, as these teams have gone 74-26 SU but just 41-58-1 ATS (41.4%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI FL (-24.5 at Stanford), OKLAHOMA STATE (-13.5 at Tulsa), UNLV (-3 at Hawaii), UCLA (-2.5 at California), Western Kentucky (-2.5 at Nevada), SMU (-3 at Florida State)

CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #6: Week 0/1 games between P4 conference opponents in Weeks 0/1 have been ridiculously low-scoring since 2021, producing 15 Unders, six Overs (71.4% Under) and 46.6 PPG on average since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): Miami FL-Stanford (o/u at 48.5), SMU-Florida State (o/u at 53.5)

CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #7: Oddsmakers are leading you to water on low-totaled games in Weeks 0/1, especially with bigger favorites, as in games with totals of 48.5 or less and a favorite of four points or more, Under the total is 51-23 (68.9%) since 2013.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): Akron-Wake Forest (o/u at 48.5), Toledo-Michigan State (o/u at 47.5), Miami FL-Stanford (o/u at 48.5), Ohio-Nebraska (o/u at 45.5), Miami OH-Pittsburgh (o/u at 48.5), Northern Illinois-Iowa (o/u at 44.5), Western Michigan-Michigan (o/u at 48.5), Central Michigan-New Mexico (o/u at 46.5), Wisconsin-Notre Dame (o/u at 46.5)

CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #8: Non-conference games between Group of 5 opponents involving home underdogs in Weeks 0/1 have been explosive, particularly when not expected to be. In fact, since 2013, when totals on these games involving home dogs (or pick-’ems) are 64 or less, the result has been 23 Overs, 11 Unders (67.6%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): UNLV-Hawaii (o/u at 55.5), Western Kentucky-Nevada (o/u at 52.5)

CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #9: Non-conference games between Group of 5 opponents featuring a home favorite have been unexpectedly lower scoring, producing 46 Unders, 27 Overs (63%) since 2013.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): San Jose State-E Michigan (o/u at 56.5), Liberty-James Madison (o/u at 50.5), Wyoming-Colorado State (o/u at 46.5), FIU-S Florida (o/u at 52.5), Arkansas State-Memphis (o/u at 52.5), Sam Houston State (o/u at 53.5), Central Michigan-New Mexico (o/u at 46.5)

College Football Game 2 Reactionary Systems

These systems take into account traits about a team’s season opener and how they affect their second game.

CFB Game 2 Reactionary System #1 — FCS letdown: Teams that faced an FBS foe in Game 1 and are favored by 30 points or more versus an FCS opponent for Game 2 have gone just 97-120-6 ATS (44.7%) since 2012.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NORTH DAKOTA STATE (-39.5 vs Fordham), SACRAMENTO STATE (-37.5 vs Miss Valley State)
* WATCH FOR NEW MEXICO STATE vs Mercyhurst (-28.5 CURRENTLY) *

CFB Game 2 Reactionary System #2 — FCS Game 2 foes not an easy rebound: Teams coming off an FBS loss in Game 1 and favored big (>=24 points) over an FCS team in Game 2 have gone just 48-71-2 ATS (40.3%) since 2012.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SACRAMENTO STATE (-37.5 vs Miss Valley State), NEW MEXICO STATE (-28.5 vs Mercyhurst)

CFB Game 2 Reactionary System #4 — Home cooking not enough to revive struggling offense: Teams that scored 10 points or fewer in their season-opening losses of 17 points or more have responded with just a 48-63-2 ATS (43.2%) record when playing at home in Game 2 over the last decade-plus.
System Match (FADE): JACKSONVILLE STATE (-20.5 vs E Kentucky)

CFB Game 2 Reactionary System #5 — Oddsmakers don’t have a true grasp on some teams early: Teams whose lines swing grossly huge amounts from Game 1 to Game 2 have performed predictably, with 52 points being the benchmark. Teams whose lines are >=52 points better than the opener have gone just 22-30-2 ATS (42.3%) over the last 13 seasons.
System Match (FADE): NEW MEXICO STATE (-28.5 vs Mercyhurst)

College Football Revenge Handicapping

The following are methodologies for handicapping revenge situations in college football, including the best and worst teams in revenge mode, and the best betting systems uncovered. Revenge is defined as having lost a game to a specific opponent in the prior or current season only.

Neutral-field underdogs are great in revenge
Since the start of the 2016 season, neutral-field underdogs playing in revenge mode have gone 56-37 ATS (60.2%).
System Match (PLAY): BAYLOR (+7.5 vs Auburn)

Road revenge line range angle that has thrived
Double-digit road favorites have been solid producers in the revenge role, going 54-45 ATS (54.5%) since 2016.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA STATE (-13.5 at Tulsa)

Revenge teams that lost as double-digit favorites last time out
Teams looking to avenge outright losses where they were double-digit favorites have struggled, going just 118-131 ATS (47.4%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA STATE (-13.5 at Tulsa)

College Football Conference Play Systems

* Under the total is 70-48-1 (59.3%) in ACC expected-tight matchups (within -3.5 to +3.5 line range) with totals <= 55.5 since 2015
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SMU-FLORIDA STATE (o/u at 52.5)

These are some of the top situational trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:

Thursday, September 3

* RUTGERS has gone 16-4 (80%) ATS in its last 20 non-conference games
Trend Match (PLAY): RUTGERS (-28.5 vs UMass)

* BUFFALO is 24-15-1 (61.5%) ATS at home since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-20.5 vs Albany)

* GEORGIA TECH is 12-26-1 ATS (31.6%) as a favorite since 2018
Trend Match (FADE): GEORGIA TECH (-6.5 vs Colorado)

* UAB is 7-18 (28%) in road/neutral games over the last four seasons
Trend Match (FADE): UAB (+27.5 at Illinois)

Friday, September 4

* PURDUE is 7-19 ATS (26.9%) at home over the last four seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PURDUE (-35.5 vs Indiana State)

* GEORGIA STATE is 2-11 (15.4%) ATS in the last 13 games versus FCS opponents
Trend Match (FADE): GEORGIA STATE (-28.5 vs NC A&T)

* KANSAS is 7-20 (25.9%) ATS as a favorite since 2018
* KANSAS is 42-28-1 (60%) Over the total since 2019
Trends Match: FADE KANSAS (-41.5 vs LIU), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 53.5)

* TOLEDO is 9-1 (90%) ATS in the last 10 as an underdog
Trend Match (PLAY): TOLEDO (+9.5 at Michigan State)

* UTEP is 11-26 ATS (29.7%) in non-conference games since 2017
Trend Match (FADE): UTEP (+41.5 at Oklahoma)

* STANFORD is 11-20-1 (35.5%) ATS in the last 31 home games
Trend Match (FADE): STANFORD (+24.5 vs Miami FL)

* FRESNO STATE is 40-24-1 (62.5%) Under the total since 2021
* USC is 36-18 ATS (66.7%) Over the total in the last four seasons
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in Fresno State-USC (o/u at 51.5)

Saturday, September 5

* AIR FORCE is 32-21 (60.4%) ATS in non-conference games since 2014
Trend Match (PLAY): AIR FORCE (-28.5 vs Duquesne)

* ALABAMA is on a 31-10 ATS (75.6%) surge at home
Trend Match (PLAY): ALABAMA (-27.5 vs East Carolina)

* APPALACHIAN STATE is 9-26 ATS (25.7%) in the last 35 games as a favorite
Trend Match (FADE): APPALACHIAN STATE (-18.5 vs Maine)

* ARIZONA STATE is 16-4-1 (80%) Under the total in non-conference games since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): Morgan State-Arizona State (o/u at 52.5)

* BALL STATE is 41-27-1 (60.3%) Under the total over the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): Ball State-Ohio State (o/u at 56.5)

* BOSTON COLLEGE is 34-15 (69.4%) ATS in their last 49 non-conference games
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON COLLEGE (+7.5 at Cincinnati)

* BOWLING GREEN is 10-15 (40%) ATS in non-conference games since 2019
Trend Match (FADE): BOWLING GREEN (-2.5 vs Tarleton State)

* UCLA is 9-22 (29%) ATS in non-conference games since 2015
* CALIFORNIA is 31-19 (62%) ATS as underdog since 2018
Trends Match (PLAY): CALIFORNIA (+2.5 vs UCLA)

* CHARLOTTE is 5-20 (20%) ATS in the last 25 home games
Trend Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (-20.5 vs Citadel)

* CLEMSON is 26-14 (65%) ATS in road/neutral games since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEMSON (+10 at LSU)

* DUKE is 32-20 (61.5%) ATS in non-conference games since 2014
Trend Match (PLAY): DUKE (-7.5 vs Tulane)

* FLORIDA is 10-18-1 (35.7%) ATS in non-conference games in the last seven seasons
Trend Match (FADE): FLORIDA (-26.5 vs FAU)

* GEORGIA 0-10 ATS (0%) in the last 10 vs FCS opponents
Trend Match (FADE): GEORGIA (-46.5 vs Tennessee State)

* GEORGIA SOUTHERN is 23-7 ATS (76.7%) as a home favorite since 2018
Trend Match (PLAY): GEORGIA SOUTHERN (-25.5 vs Charleston Southern)

* HAWAII is 16-2-2 ATS (88.9%) as a home underdog in conference games since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY): HAWAII (+3 vs UNLV)

* INDIANA is 16-4 (80%) ATS in their last 20 games as a 20+ point favorite
Trend Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-40.5 vs North Texas)

* LIBERTY is 26-11 (70.3%) ATS as an underdog since 2014
* JAMES MADISON is 30-18 (62.5%) ATS as a favorite since 2020
Trends Match: 1 PLAY ON LIBERTY, 1 PLAY ON JAMES MADISON

* KENT STATE is 15-28 (34.9%) ATS in the last 43 games as an underdog
* SOUTH CAROLINA is 17-10 (63%) ATS as a favorite in the last six seasons
Trends Match (PLAY): SOUTH CAROLINA (-35.5 vs Kent State)

* KENTUCKY is 21-9 (70%) ATS in non-conference games since 2018
Trend Match (PLAY): KENTUCKY (-23.5 vs Youngstown State)

* LOUISIANA TECH is 41-31-1 (56.9%) Over the total since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): Northwestern State-Louisiana Tech (o/u at 55.5)

* MARYLAND is 18-9 (66.7%) ATS in the last 27 non-conference games
Trend Match (PLAY): MARYLAND (-45.5 vs Hampton)

* MIAMI OHIO is on a 42-28-1 (60%) Under the total run over the last six seasons
* PITTSBURGH is 47-28 (62.7%) Over the total since 2020
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in Miami OH-Pitt (o/u at 48.5)

* MISSISSIPPI STATE is 21-14 (60%) ATS at home since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY): MISSISSIPPI STATE (-28.5 vs Louisiana-Monroe)

* NEBRASKA is 8-17-3 (32%) ATS at home in the last 28
Trend Match (FADE): NEBRASKA (-23.5 vs Ohio)

* NEW MEXICO is 9-21 (30%) ATS as a favorite since 2018
* NEW MEXICO is 23-14 (62.2%) Over the total in the last three seasons
Trends Match: FADE NEW MEXICO (-10 vs Central Michigan), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 46.5)

* NORTHWESTERN is 33-13 (71.7%) Under the total as a home favorite since 2013
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): San Diego State-Northwestern (o/u at 46.5)

* OLD DOMINION is 12-24 (33.3%) ATS at home since 2019
Trend Match (FADE): OLD DOMINION (-40.5 vs Norfolk State)

* SAN DIEGO STATE is 53-30 (63.9%) Under the total since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): Portland State-San Diego State (o/u at 61.5)

* TENNESSEE is 18-7 (72%) ATS in non-conference games since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY): TENNESSEE (-46.5 vs Furman)

* VIRGINIA TECH is 6-23 ATS (20.7%) in non-conference games since 2019
Trend Match (FADE): VIRGINIA TECH (-55.5 vs VMI)

* WEST VIRGINIA has gone 22-13 ATS (62.9%) at home in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): WEST VIRGINIA (-20.5 vs Coastal Carolina)

Sunday, September 6

* LOUISVILLE is 8-15 (34.8%) ATS in non-conference games since 2021
* OLE MISS is 19-8 ATS (70.4%) in non-conference games in the last six seasons
Trends Match (PLAY): OLE MISS (-7 vs Louisville)

* NOTRE DAME is 32-12 ATS (72.7%) in road/neutral games in the last seven seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): NOTRE DAME (-20.5 vs Wisconsin)

Monday, September 7

* FLORIDA STATE is 13-27 (32.5%) ATS in conference games since 2021
Trend Match (FADE): FLORIDA STATE (+3 vs SMU)

These are the top head-to-head series trends between teams from recent years’ action:

(187) UTEP at (188) OKLAHOMA
Home teams are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in Miners-Sooners series since 2000
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA (-41.5 vs UTEP)

(165) WESTERN MICHIGAN at (166) MICHIGAN
Under the total has converted in the last five meetings between these in-state foes
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): Western Michigan-Michigan (o/u at 48.5)

(167) TULANE at (168) DUKE
Favorites have won and covered all four matchups between Tulane and Duke since 2011 (average cover margin of 14.25 points)
Trend Match (PLAY): DUKE (-7.5 vs Tulane)

(179) OKLAHOMA STATE at (180) TULSA
Road teams are 4-3 SU and 6-1 ATS in the last seven games between Oklahoma State and Tulsa
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA STATE (-13.5 at Tulsa)

(199) WYOMING at (200) COLORADO STATE
Home teams are 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS in the last seven of this series
Trend Match (PLAY): COLORADO STATE (-3 vs Wyoming)

(203) UCLA at (204) CALIFORNIA
Under the total is 12-1-1 in this in-state rivalry since 2010
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): UCLA-California (o/u at 53.5)

(207) BOISE STATE at (208) OREGON
Boise State has covered all four meetings with Oregon since 2008
Trend Match (PLAY): BOISE STATE (+24.5 at Oregon)

(215) ARKANSAS STATE at (216) MEMPHIS
Underdogs are 3-8 SU but 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 of Red Wolves-Tigers series
Trend Match (PLAY ATS): ARKANSAS STATE (+11.5 at Memphis)

(217) UNLV at (218) HAWAII
Home teams are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in the last five of this Mountain West rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): HAWAII (+3 vs UNLV)

WASHINGTON STATE at (202) WASHINGTON
Road teams are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in the last four non-neutral meetings for the Apple Cup
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON STATE (+23.5 at Washington)

Strategies Using CFB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. Note that these systems only include games matching TWO FBS OPPONENTS against one another.

Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of 5:15 p.m. ET on Tuesday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage. There will be an updated betting splits article on Saturday morning.

CFB DK Betting Splits system #1: Going back to the start of the 2022 season, when more than 75% of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 588-657 ATS (47.2%). This angle has produced consistently over the last four seasons and blindly fading these majority bettors during this span who have given you a small profit in four straight years. In 2026, this system is 1-2 ATS.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ILLINOIS, MICHIGAN STATE, OKLAHOMA, ALABAMA, HOUSTON, WEST VIRGINIA, JAMES MADISON, PITTSBURGH, SOUTH CAROLINA, AUBURN, OREGON, PENN STATE, TEXAS, ARKANSAS STATE, SOUTH FLORIDA, TEXAS A&M, SAM HOUSTON STATE, MICHIGAN, CENTRAL MICHIGAN, UCLA, WESTERN KENTUCKY, NOTRE DAME, SMU

CFB DK Betting Splits system #2: When 76%+ of the number of bets were on the home side of an ATS wager since the start of the ’22 season, this majority group has gone just 241-263 ATS (47.8%). In 2022 it was 46.5%, in 2023 it was 46.7%, in 2024 it was 46.6%. Last year it was six games over .500. I personally believe that performance will prove to be a fluke. Again, if you see the big green lights on the VSiN betting splits # of BETS page >75%, it is best to fade it. In 2026, this system is 1-2 ATS.
System Matches (FADE ALL): GEORGIA TECH, USC, ALABAMA, JAMES MADISON, PITTSBURGH, OREGON, PENN STATE, TEXAS, SOUTH FLORIDA, MICHIGAN, MISSISSIPPI STATE, FLORIDA, NOTRE DAME

CFB DK Betting Splits system #3: When the majority of the handle was on road favorites for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group is just 368-410 ATS (47.3%). Recreational bettors love road favorites because they are most often the better team. The point spread is the great equalizer. There is plenty of reason to fade these over-backed road favorites.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI FL, UCLA, W KENTUCKY, SMU

CFB DK Betting Splits system #4: When a 68%+ majority of the handle was on small home favorites of seven points or fewer for an ATS wager since the start of the 2023 season, this majority group is 83-66 ATS (55.7%). Bettors are wisely valuing home-field advantage in these games that are expected to be competitive. In 2026, this system is 1-0 ATS.
System Match (PLAY): JAMES MADISON

CFB DK Betting Splits system #5: When a 58% or greater majority of the handle has been on road underdogs for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone 153-134 ATS (53.3%). This is a pretty good percentage for a high-volume, simple-based system and a nice advantage against the usual majority win rates. It goes to show that being on the side of majority handle when it goes against the grain can pay off.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): SAN JOSE STATE, BOSTON COLLEGE, TULANE, NORTHERN ILLINOIS, WYOMING, ARKANSAS STATE, SAM HOUSTON STATE, CLEMSON, CENTRAL MICHIGAN

CFB DK Betting Splits system #6: When a majority of 55% or more of number of bets has backed road underdogs for an ATS wager over the past four seasons, this majority group has gone 154-132 ATS (53.8%). This is even better than the handle numbers in No. 4, actually, and it suggests that following public bettors getting behind road dogs can be an actionable strategy.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): SAN JOSE STATE, NORTHERN ILLINOIS, SAM HOUSTON STATE, CENTRAL MICHIGAN

CFB DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority of number of bets has backed a team in an ATS wager in non-Saturday games, their 2022-25 season record was 288-233 (55.3%). This goes to show that public bettors can be better performers with fewer games to choose from. A lot of times their mistake proves to be taking too many games on a Saturday.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): RUTGERS, WAKE FOREST, GEORGIA TECH, ILLINOIS, SAN JOSE STATE, MICHIGAN STATE, OKLAHOMA, MIAMI FL, USC

CFB DK Betting Splits system #8: Contrary to popular belief, majority handle bettors have been very good when getting behind huge home favorites, specifically those favored by 27.5 points or more. In most cases, I would fear this as a prototypical public bet, but these groups are 82-65 ATS (55.8%) over the last four seasons. In 2026, this system is 0-2 ATS.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): RUTGERS, ILLINOIS, OKLAHOMA, ALABAMA, INDIANA, OHIO STATE, SOUTH CAROLINA, TEXAS, TEXAS A&M, MICHIGAN, MISSISSIPPI STATE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #9: The average college football total has steadied at about 53. In games since the start of the 2022 season where the totals reached 59 or higher and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, when majority handle bettors favored the Under, they have been relatively sharp, going 67-51 (56.8%). This is pretty rare, as it occurred in only 118 of 3173 games.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BAYLOR-AUBURN

CFB DK Betting Splits system #10: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 49 or lower, 72%+ super majority handle bettors siding with the Under have gone 69-51 (57.5%). Because not many public bettors embrace betting Unders, this doesn’t produce a lot of plays, but the super handle majority has been sharp.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): TOLEDO-MICHIGAN STATE, OHIO-NEBRASKA, WYOMING-COLORADO STATE, CENTRAL MICHIGAN-NEW MEXICO, WISCONSIN-NOTRE DAME

CFB DK Betting Splits system #12: Since the start of the 2022 season, majority handle bettors have been quite sharp in two contrarian ways for betting totals in non-conference games. When all majorities have favored Unders in totals of 55 or higher, they have gone 44-29 (60.3%). When greater than 80% of majorities have gone behind Overs for totals of less than 55, they’ve gone 57-33 (63.3%). In 2026, this system is 0-1 ATS. These are very good performance levels, again going against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): UNDER – COASTAL CAROLINA-WEST VIRGINIA, BAYLOR-AUBURN, UNLV-HAWAII
OVER – UTEP-OKLAHOMA, FRESNO STATE-USC, MIAMI OH-PITTSBURGH, KENT STATE-SOUTH CAROLINA, BOISE STATE-OREGON, MISSOURI STATE-TEXAS A&M, SAM HOUSTON STATE-TROY, WESTERN MICHIGAN-MICHIGAN, UCLA-CALIFORNIA

This Week’s College Football Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NCAAF tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NORTH TEXAS +40.5 (+3.3)
2. STANFORD +24.5 (+2.8)
3. EAST CAROLINA +27.5 (+2.0)
4. BAYLOR +7.5 (+1.9)
CALIFORNIA +2.5 (+1.9)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OHIO STATE -50.5 (+4.8)
2. IOWA -31.5 (+3.1)
3. WESTERN KENTUCKY -2.5 (+2.8)
4. HOUSTON -20.5 (+2.7)
5. TEXAS -29.5 (+2.4)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL +14 (+5.2)
2. NORTH TEXAS +40.5 (+5.0)
ARKANSAS STATE +11.5 (+5.0)
4. TULSA +13.5 (+4.7)
5. FLORIDA STATE +3 (+3.4)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MISSISSIPPI STATE -28.5 (+5.3)
2. OHIO STATE -50.5 (+4.8)
3. HOUSTON -20.5 (+4.7)
4. WAKE FOREST -23.5 (+3.7)
5. RUTGERS -28.5 (+2.5)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. UMASS-RUTGERS OVER 51.5 (+2.4)
2. LIBERTY-JAMES MADISON OVER 50.5 (+2.3)
3. WESTERN MICHIGAN-MICHIGAN OVER 48.5 (+2.2)
4. FLORIDA ATLANTIC-FLORIDA OVER 59.5 (+2.1)
EAST CAROLINA-ALABAMA OVER 52.5 (+2.1)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SMU-FLORIDA STATE UNDER 52.5 (-3.2)
2. OKLAHOMA STATE-TULSA UNDER 58.5 (-2.7)
3. BOSTON COLLEGE-CINCINNATI UNDER 49.5 (-2.3)
4. MISSOURI STATE-TEXAS A&M UNDER 53.5 (-2.2)
5. SAN JOSE STATE-EASTERN MICHIGAN UNDER 56.5 (-2.1)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NORTH TEXAS +40.5 (+7.5)
2. MARSHALL +24.5 (+6.4)
3. BAYLOR +7.5 (+5.6)
4. OHIO +23.5 (+4.7)
SAM HOUSTON STATE +16.5 (+4.7)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. WESTERN KENTUCKY -2.5 (+5.2)
2. MICHIGAN STATE -9.5 (+5.1)
3. USC -22.5 (+4.7)
4. PITTSBURGH -16.5 (+4.4)
5. GEORGIA TECH -6.5 (+4.1)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL-SOUTH FLORIDA OVER 52.5 (+15.2)
2. AKRON-WAKE FOREST OVER 48.5 (+12.9)
3. COLORADO-GEORGIA TECH OVER 50.5 (+10.5)
4. CENTRAL MICHIGAN-NEW MEXICO OVER 46.5 (+10.2)
5. CLEMSON-LSU OVER 50.5 (+10.1)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAN JOSE STATE-EASTERN MICHIGAN UNDER 56.5 (-4.6)
2. BAYLOR-AUBURN OVER 59.5 (-2.4)
3. MISSOURI STATE-TEXAS A&M UNDER 53.5 (-2.3)
4. UNLV-HAWAII UNDER 56.5 (-1.6)
5. MARSHALL-PENN STATE UNDER 52.5 (-1.1)

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