Week 11 College Football Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Matt Youmans
Here are my Week 11 college football best bets:
San Diego State (-7) at Hawaii
Darkness is the Earth’s shadow falling upon us, and as the rest of the country sits in the dark at the tail end of another college football Saturday, bettors’ eyes should shift to a sunset in Honolulu and one of the most intriguing games on the schedule. It’s not the Big Ten, Big 12 or SEC, but the best matchup the Mountain West has to offer will be on stage as Hawaii quarterback Micah Alejado takes his shots at San Diego State’s dominant defense.
This is a showdown worthy of the hype, unlike the Raiders-Broncos debacle the NFL served up on a cold dish Thursday night.
Alejado operates an entertaining offense and he’s got a hot hand, passing for an average of 385 yards over the past four games. During his heater, the Warriors have scored 39.3 points per game. However, the Aztecs allow 10 points per game to rank No. 2 in the nation in scoring defense behind top-ranked Ohio State.
The last game on the day’s betting rotation will be featured on the big screens in the Circa sportsbook, and the nation’s wagering spotlight is something Hawaii coach Timmy Chang embraces. “My vision is for Hawaii to be America’s team,” Chang said during a late-October appearance on VSiN.
Chang was the greatest quarterback in Hawaii history and he’s returning the program to its identity of throwing the ball all over the yard. San Diego’s State identity of running the rock and playing relentless defense is something quite different. Which style will win the fight?
Are the Aztecs, 7-1 overall and atop the Mountain West at 4-0, the real deal? The answer will be yes, if their defense can control Alejado. There are reasons to be skeptical. San Diego State has defeated four of the weakest teams and worst quarterbacks in the conference to this point and is about to get into the toughest four weeks of its schedule.
With a talented group of receivers, Alejado will be the best quarterback the Aztecs have faced. On the flip side, Hawaii (6-3, 3-2) has a vulnerable defense that will get tested on the ground by running back Lucky Sutton, who has averaged 22 carries and 121 yards in four league games. Sutton is not Marshall Faulk, but he’s hard to handle.
As Hawaii’s coach, Chang is 18-6-1 ATS at home, including 12-5 ATS as a Honolulu underdog. This line looks inflated, based on the Aztecs’ dominance against a soft schedule, and this is a game “America’s team” can win behind Alejado’s passing and playmaking ability.
Best Bet: Hawaii +7
Indiana (-15) at Penn State
When the sun rises in Happy Valley, the Nittany Lions will be in unfamiliar territory as double-digit home ‘dogs. These teams did not meet last year, but Penn State was a 31-point favorite against Indiana two years ago. A lot has changed since Curt Cignetti arrived to coach the Hoosiers, who are led by quarterback Fernando Mendoza, a Heisman Trophy frontrunner. Indiana has the nation’s No. 1 scoring offense (46.4 ppg) and No. 3 scoring defense (10.8). While it’s not the brightest idea to bet against IU, Penn State is a talented team that will play with pride, and the price is right. The Lions trailed 17-14 at halftime at Ohio State before the bounces went the Buckeyes’ way and the game got away. This will be the first home start for quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer, who should be more comfortable, and senior running back Kaytron Allen can help keep the offense moving. It’s tough to blow out quality teams on the road, and the Hoosiers did struggle through a 20-15 win at Iowa in late September.
Best Bet: Penn State +15
Duke (-9.5) at Connecticut
Huskies senior Joe Fagnano has better numbers than the quarterbacks who are Heisman candidates. Fagnano has completed 68.8% of his passes for 2,529 yards and 22 touchdowns with no interceptions. He has put up those numbers against weak opposition, and UConn is a big ‘dog in this game because Duke is a big step up in competition. But this is a tricky spot for the Blue Devils, who are off of an emotional comeback win at Clemson and stepping out of ACC play. Duke has a much more important game against conference leader Virginia on deck.
Best Bet: UConn +9.5
Texas A&M (-7) at Missouri
While both teams are off a bye, the Aggies (8-0) are playing their third consecutive road game and have a target on their back as the nation’s No. 3-ranked team. Texas A&M quarterback Marcel Reed will find out the Missouri defensive front is the strongest he has faced this season. The Tigers’ Ahmad Hardy, arguably the top running back in the SEC, is the nation’s fourth-leading rusher with 937 yards. Missouri did lose starting quarterback Beau Pribula to injury in a 17-10 loss at Vanderbilt, but freshman Matt Zollers stepped in to pass for 138 yards with a touchdown and has had extra time to prepare for this start.
Best Bet: Missouri +7
Oregon (-6.5) at Iowa
On a cold and possibly rainy or snowy day in Iowa City, the Hawkeyes hope to drag the Ducks into the mud and play old-school Big Ten football. Iowa is not a sexy team to bet on, not with a quarterback in Mark Gronowski who has 11 rushing touchdowns and only four passing touchdowns in eight games. Still, the Hawkeyes have the ability to dictate this matchup with their defense and ground attack. Aside from Ohio State and Notre Dame, no team has given Indiana more trouble the past two years than Iowa, which had the Hoosiers backed into a corner and let them off the hook late in the fourth quarter. The line might move to 7 by gameday, but if that doesn’t happen, I’ll buy the half-point to get it there.
Best Bet: Iowa +7 (-130)
Last week: 3-1 against the spread
Season: 28-24-5
For more college football Week 11 best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Week 11 hub, exclusively on VSiN.
