Week 12 College Football Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Matt Youmans
Here are my Week 12 college football best bets:
Texas at Georgia (-6)
It was not Arch Manning’s fault that he was overhyped as the Heisman Trophy favorite coming into the season. Manning actually said over the summer he didn’t deserve or want the hype, and those of us who propped up the Texas quarterback with unrealistic expectations were in the wrong. But, better late than never, Manning might finally be showing he does have the right stuff.
Manning’s arc of improvement in the past two games has revived the Longhorns’ hopes of reaching the 12-team playoff. Still, he’s got a high hurdle to clear Saturday when 10th-ranked Texas (7-2) faces No. 5 Georgia (8-1) between the hedges in Athens.
Manning passed for an average of 337 yards with a total of six touchdowns in the Longhorns’ most recent victories over Vanderbilt and Mississippi State before a bye. He resembled more of a legitimate NFL prospect and much less of an overhyped bust.
The opposing quarterback is enjoying a better season. Georgia junior Gunner Stockton has completed 69.4% of his passes with 15 touchdowns and two interceptions while also running for 321 yards and seven touchdowns. The Bulldogs averaged 36 points in their past three games and rushed for 303 yards — with Nate Frazier going for 181 yards on 12 carries — in a 41-21 win at Mississippi State last week. Stockton will be lining up against a Texas defense — led by linebackers Anthony Hill and Colin Simmons — that is tied for the SEC lead with 34 sacks.
Manning’s surge could be a little deceiving. He’s not truly stretching defenses vertically because many of his completions have been near the line of scrimmage, something Georgia coach Kirby Smart will be ready to scheme for in this game. Smart is known for fielding elite defenses, but this is not one of his best units, so Manning will have some opportunities.
Manning is back in the spotlight, though he has yet to shine against a ranked opponent on the road and I’ve got to see it to believe it. The Bulldogs are 35-1 in their past 36 home games — their 33-game home win streak was stopped by Alabama in late September — and that includes 11 wins against Top 25 opponents.
Best Bet: Georgia -6
Michigan (-11.5) at Northwestern
Freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood has a lot to learn and a long way to go. In Michigan’s nine games, Underwood has completed 61% of his passes with only seven touchdowns. The Wolverines are without leading rusher Justice Haynes, who has 857 yards and 10 touchdowns while averaging 7.1 yards per carry. Haynes needed foot surgery and hopes to return for the Ohio State game, leaving Jordan Marshall as the top running back. Prior to a bye, Michigan was a 20-point favorite in a lackluster 21-16 victory over last-place Purdue. The well-coached Wildcats (5-4) are tough defensively and look like live ‘dogs in this game at Wrigley Field. I bet Northwestern at +13 — a number that was five points too high, according to my power ratings — and the market has started to make a correction late in the week.
Best Bet: Northwestern +11.5
Penn State (-7.5) at Michigan State
It’s rare that a team riding a six-game losing streak is laying more than a touchdown on the road against a respectable opponent. Penn State (3-6) is winless in Big Ten play and has lost its head coach and veteran starting quarterback along the way. The Nittany Lions are also reeling from a deflating last-minute loss to No. 2 Indiana. On the positive side, quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer played his best game in the 27-24 loss to the Hoosiers. The Spartans also have dropped six in a row, but coach Jonathan Smith made a quarterback switch in a 23-20 overtime loss at Minnesota before a bye. Smith benched Aidan Chiles and went to Alessio Milivojevic, who passed for 311 of the team’s season-high 467 total yards. All of the Lions’ goals for the season have been flushed, they blew a shot to upset Indiana and should be flat this week.
Best Bet: Michigan State +7.5
Iowa at USC (-7)
The weather forecast in Los Angeles calls for a 100% chance of heavy rain and it plays right into the Hawkeyes’ hands. USC’s offense is mostly finesse, with quarterback Jayden Maiava throwing to speed receivers Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane. Iowa is all about being physical on both sides of the ball and making the game ugly. Last week in the cold and rain in Iowa City, the Hawkeyes dragged Oregon into an old-school Big Ten football battle and fell 18-16 on a late field goal. It’s never pretty with quarterback Mark Gronowski, but he can run and the Hawkeyes can grind it out. Iowa has lost three games by margins of two, three and five points.
Best Bet: Iowa +7
Boise State at San Diego State (-3)
Some numbers do lie. San Diego State took the nation’s No. 2 scoring defense (10 ppg) to Honolulu last week and allowed three touchdown passes in the first half of a 38-6 loss to Hawaii, which used its accurate quarterback and speed receivers to burn a defense that had not been tested much through the air. The Aztecs faced four of the weakest teams and worst quarterbacks in the Mountain West before getting exposed. A vulnerable pass defense should not be a problem against Boise State, which is without quarterback Maddux Madsen and forced to go with minimally talented backup Max Cutforth. Rain will be falling Saturday night in San Diego, where the Aztecs can use their run defense and running back Lucky Sutton to prevail in a low-scoring game.
Best Bets: San Diego State -2.5 and Under 41.5 (half-unit each)
Last week: 4-1 against the spread
Season: 32-25-5
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