Week 5 College Football Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Matt Youmans
Here are my Week 5 college football best bets:
Ohio State (-8.5) at Washington
In its only quality win of the season, top-ranked Ohio State took advantage of a young quarterback making his first career road start. The Buckeyes won their season opener thanks to Arch Manning being a mess for Texas.
The script will be flipped on Saturday afternoon, when Ohio State freshman quarterback Julian Sayin makes his first career road start. Sayin and the Buckeyes are 8.5-point favorites at unranked Washington in the Big Ten opener for a pair of 3-0 teams. Husky Stadium will be rocking and there’s a chance the nation’s No. 1 team could get rolled.
Ohio State’s ranking is based mostly on its status as the reigning national champion. In the Buckeyes’ 14-7 victory over Texas on Aug. 30, the Sayin-led offense produced only 203 total yards. Since then, Sayin and the Buckeyes have padded their stats in lopsided victories over Grambling and Ohio, so there’s a lot still to prove.
Washington ranks No. 2 nationally in scoring offense at 55.7 ppg, but that number is as helium-filled as the Goodyear Blimp because the Huskies have faced terrible defenses (Colorado State, UC Davis and Washington State) so far. The Buckeyes’ strength is their top-ranked scoring defense (5.3 ppg).
This is when we find out if Washington sophomore quarterback Demond Williams Jr. is the real deal. Huskies coach Jedd Fisch has called Williams “sensational” and “super special.” Williams has completed 73.5% of his passes for 778 yards and six touchdowns with no interceptions while also running for 220 yards and two touchdowns. Williams is flanked by a couple of special playmakers in running back Jonah Coleman and wideout Denzel Boston.
An Ohio State defense that dominated Manning will get more of a stress test from Williams. The Huskies might fall short of pulling the upset, but they have enough firepower to make Buckeyes coach Ryan Day sweat it out in Seattle.
Best Bet: Washington +8.5
USC (-7) at Illinois
The Trojans (4-0, 2-0) sit atop the Big Ten standings — something that’s never been said before — but their toughest stretch of the schedule starts now. USC coach Lincoln Riley is unhappy with the early kickoff time (noon ET) in Champaign, Ill., after his team played a late game (8 p.m. PT) in Los Angeles a week ago, so this is a body-clock challenge for the road team. Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava has been outstanding (nine touchdown passes, no interceptions) and star receiver Ja’Kobi Lane is expected to return from injury after sitting out of a 45-31 victory over Michigan State. The Fighting Illini were ranked in the Top 10 before getting humiliated 63-10 at Indiana, so this should be the right time to back a good team off a bad loss at an inflated price.
Best Bet: Illinois +7
LSU at Mississippi (-1.5)
A year ago, LSU was all offense and no defense. Now the Tigers boast a great defense (9.3 ppg) that is carrying a sluggish offense. Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin has two quarterbacks he can win with, but Trinidad Chambliss has outplayed Austin Simmons, who started the first two games before going down with an ankle injury Sept. 6 at Kentucky. Chambliss has passed for 660 yards and rushed for 174 in his two starts against Arkansas and Tulane. The Tigers’ marquee wins against Clemson and Florida suddenly don’t look so impressive. Kiffin is 2-0 at home versus LSU.
Best Bet: Mississippi -1.5
San Diego State (-2.5) at Northern Illinois
The Aztecs, who were two-touchdown home underdogs in a 34-0 victory over California a week ago, hit the road to DeKalb, IL, in a classic letdown spot. In its only previous road trip, San Diego State stumbled to a 23-point loss at Washington State. This is far from the same Huskies team that upset Notre Dame last year, but coach Thomas Hammock will lean on running backs Telly Johnson Jr. and Chavon Wright to try to grind out an ugly win.
Best Bet: Northern Illinois +2.5
Indiana (-8) at Iowa
Aside from losses to Notre Dame and Ohio State, Curt Cignetti has taken no prisoners in his two seasons as Indiana coach. Cignetti is 15-0 straight up and 12-3 ATS as a favorite. He’s probably got the Hoosiers headed for another playoff appearance, and quarterback Fernando Mendoza (76.8% completions, 14 touchdowns, no interceptions) is the Heisman Trophy favorite. IU is legit, yet also seems to be in a bet-against spot after dropping 63 points on Illinois and laying an inflated number in Iowa City. Hawkeyes quarterback Mark Gronowski is not exactly lighting it up or attracting Heisman hype with three touchdown passes in four games, so this is risky business, but the situation sets up well for the home ‘dog.
Best Bet: Iowa +8
Hawaii at Air Force (-6.5)
Liam Szarka stepped in at quarterback last week and led the Falcons to 514 total yards in a 49-37 loss to Boise State. Szarka passed for 246 yards, ran for 110 and accounted for three touchdowns. Dylan Carson rushed for 109 yards and Cade Harris had 177 receiving yards for the Falcons, who can put up points and also allow plenty with a poor defense. This should be a high-scoring game if Hawaii quarterback Micah Alejado bounces back from a poor performance in a 23-21 loss to Fresno State. The Warriors have had little success on the ground (3.4 yards per carry, no rushing touchdowns) and seem to be a team running on fumes. Hawaii is playing for the sixth consecutive week, so the trip to Colorado Springs at altitude will be a high hurdle.
Best Bets: Air Force -6.5 and Over 53.5 (half-unit each)
San Jose State at Stanford (-3)
The style is ugly and there’s not much substance to Stanford’s offense. The Cardinal have a game-manager quarterback in Ben Gulbranson, but running back Micah Ford (335 rushing yards in four games) can wear down a defense behind a physical offensive line. Stanford should have the strength on the ground to pound it out against a disappointing San Jose team that was upset by Central Michigan and needed a last-minute field goal to beat Idaho. I bet Stanford -2.5 and this line is rising so do not lay more than three points.
Best Bet: Stanford -3
Oregon at Penn State (-3.5)
On paper in the preseason, Penn State had the experience and talent to warrant a No. 1 ranking. The results on the field have been underwhelming so far. The coaching is always a concern with the Nittany Lions. “Big Game” James Franklin has a 1-15 record versus Top 5 opponents at Penn State, which recorded his lone win against Ohio State in 2016. Franklin set up a cupcake nonconference schedule (Nevada, Florida International and Villanova) that did nothing to prepare his team for the Ducks’ talent and speed. Drew Allar has only four touchdown passes for a Lions offense that needs to ride stud running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton. Oregon quarterback Dante Moore (74.7% completions, 11 touchdown passes) is off to a hot start, yet he also has faced weak defenses and is about to walk into the toughest road test of his brief career. I don’t love this play, but I do like the Ducks’ Dan Lanning in the coaching matchup. This could be a defensive battle decided by a field goal.
Best Bets: Oregon +3.5 and Under 52.5 (half-unit each)
Alabama at Georgia (-3)
Gunner Stockton grew up in Georgia’s 44-41 overtime win at Tennessee two weeks ago. Stockton accounted for 342 total yards and three touchdowns while making multiple big plays under pressure. Alabama’s loss at Florida State does not look so bad now, but what did the Crimson Tide really prove by rebounding to beat Louisiana-Monroe and Wisconsin? This one means a lot to Bulldogs coach Kirby Smart, who has lost nine of the past 10 to the Tide. Georgia has a 33-game home winning streak, so that’s my side. The line is mostly -3, yet some books (including ESPNBet, FanDuel and South Point) are showing 2.5.
Best Bet: Georgia -2.5
Last week: 4-1-1 against the spread
Season: 13-8-1
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