Week 6 College Football Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Matt Youmans
Here are my Week 6 college football best bets:
Texas (-5.5) at Florida
What was supposed to be a showdown between Heisman Trophy candidates has been reduced to a clash of overhyped, underachieving quarterbacks. The Texas-Florida game on the first Saturday of October was circled in the offseason because Arch Manning and the Longhorns would be storming into The Swamp to potentially put their No. 1 ranking on the line.
Rain is in the forecast for Gainesville, and the disappointing play of Manning and Gators quarterback DJ Lagway already had put a damper on this game. Texas is ranked No. 9 and has not faced a respectable opponent in more than a month. Florida is unranked and riding a three-game losing streak.
Manning’s performance in the Longhorns’ 14-7 loss at Ohio State on Aug. 30 was miserable and uninspiring. He has since padded his stats against three lightweight teams — Sam Houston, San Jose State and UTEP — but we are no longer fooled by the media hype and it’s obvious he’s got a long way to go and a lot to prove.
Lagway was sensational as a freshman yet has slumped as a sophomore. He threw five interceptions in a loss at LSU and passed for only 61 yards in a loss at Miami. The Gators scored a pitiful 11 points per game during their losing skid.
Texas’ strength is its defense, the same is true of Florida, and that’s bad news for a pair of struggling quarterbacks. The good news for the Gators is that 6-foot-3 freshman receiver Dallas Wilson is set to return from injury and make his season debut. In the spring game, Wilson was a star while making 10 catches for 195 yards and two touchdowns. Wilson could be the big-play target Lagway desperately needs to spark the offense.
One of my first bets this week was Florida +7. Nothing that happened in September indicated the Longhorns warranted so much respect from the oddsmakers, and there was a Thursday afternoon move toward the Gators in the betting market. I made this number Texas -3.5.
It’s possible I’m wrong and this will be Manning’s breakout game. It’s also possible I’ll regret betting on clueless Florida coach Billy Napier, whose job is in serious jeopardy and soon will be lost if he doesn’t win this game. The Gators have been left for dead by most, but they should be sitting on a big effort and show up as live home ‘dogs in this spot.
Best Bet: Florida +5.5
Clemson (-14) at North Carolina
Once upon a time, Bill Belichick was feared when he was off a loss or had extra time to prepare for an opponent. Before a bye, the Tar Heels took a 25-point beating at Central Florida, so Belichick should be motivated and well prepared. North Carolina is capable of staying in this game behind its defense and veteran quarterback Max Johnson. Clemson (1-3 SU, 0-4 ATS) has been a colossal flop and coach Dabo Swinney seems to have no answers. Senior quarterback Cade Klubnik has completed 60% of his passes with six touchdowns and four interceptions while triggering an offense averaging only 19.8 ppg. Belichick’s back-to-school experiment has been an embarrassment on and off the field, so if he’s got anything left, this should be the time to back him as a double-digit underdog. I’ll hedge that theory by adding a play on a low-scoring game because the defenses figure to control an ugly game.
Best Bets: North Carolina +14 and Under 47 (half-unit each)
Illinois (-9.5) at Purdue
The Fighting Illini are riding high after a dramatic 34-32 upset of USC in which Luke Altmyer passed for 328 yards and two touchdowns. Next week, Illinois will host No. 1 Ohio State — and that means this trip to West Lafayette, Ind., is a classic sandwich spot. The Boilermakers were by far the Big Ten’s worst team last year, when Purdue was a 22-point underdog in a 50-49 overtime loss at Illinois. Ryan Browne accounted for 415 total yards (297 passing, 118 rushing) in last season’s shootout and is back to trigger an improved offense that recently put up 30 points against Notre Dame. The scheduling spot is much better for Purdue and new coach Barry Odom, who is off a bye quickly turning around what was a terrible team. Odom is hunting for his first Big Ten win and could get it here.
Best Bet: Purdue +9.5
Miami (FL) (-4.5) at Florida State
It’s not going to be easy to slow the No. 3 Hurricanes, who have a dominant offensive line to pave the way for running back Mark Fletcher Jr. (236 rushing yards in the past two games) and protect quarterback Carson Beck. Miami has no apparent weaknesses, aside from coach Mario Cristobal’s game-management shortcomings. After getting upset at Virginia, the Seminoles should be dangerous ‘dogs in this rivalry game in Tallahassee, where they took down Alabama in the season opener. Florida State needs a huge effort from dual-threat quarterback Tommy Castellanos to have a shot. I’ll take the points and predict the Canes win by a field goal.
Best Bet: Florida State +4.5
Duke (-3) at California
Hopefully, the home ‘dogs are barking, and the Golden Bears are typically at their best in late-night underdog spots in Berkeley. Freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has led Cal (4-1) to victories over Boston College, Minnesota and Oregon State. Bears coach Justin Wilcox is a defensive wizard, but his hands will be full trying to scheme ways to stop Duke quarterback Darian Mensah, who has 69% completions, 1,573 yards and 13 touchdowns in five games. This is a challenging spot for the Blue Devils, who are faced with a cross-country trip after winning at Syracuse last Saturday.
Best Bet: California +3
Last week: 3-4-2 against the spread
Season: 16-12-3
For more college football Week 6 best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Week 6 hub, exclusively on VSiN.
