Week 7 College Football Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Matt Youmans
Here are my Week 7 college football best bets:
Michigan at USC (-2.5)
If developing quarterbacks is an art form, Lincoln Riley must be considered the Michelangelo or Picasso of college football coaches. At Oklahoma, Riley developed Heisman Trophy winners and top NFL draft picks. At USC, Riley’s work is not as impressive, but he is making progress with junior Jayden Maiava.
Riley is not known for coaching teams with dominant defenses — or even decent defenses. The Trojans’ weakness is obvious and it will get tested Saturday by Bryce Underwood, one of the nation’s best freshman quarterbacks. Michigan-USC is a marquee matchup that can catapult the winner into the playoff conversation. The loser will face a variety of consequences.
Riley needs this win. A failure to rise up in big games has put some big-name coaches under fire, starting with James Franklin at Penn State and Steve Sarkisian at Texas. Riley is feeling the heat for flopping in too many marquee games in his four years at USC, including a 27-24 loss at Michigan last season.
With a bye week to prepare for the Wolverines, Riley and defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn should have a significant advantage. As talented as Underwood is, he struggled as a passer in both of his September road starts. Underwood went 9-for-24 for 142 yards in a loss at Oklahoma and 12-for-22 for 105 yards in a win at Nebraska. Underwood, who has only three touchdown passes in five games, will need to lean on running back Justice Haynes for help.
If the Trojans need to win a shootout, Riley’s offense looks capable. Maiava has completed 70.5% of his passes for 1,587 yards and 11 touchdowns with one interception. He’s supported by a few playmakers in receivers Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane and running back Waymond Jordan. USC ranks No. 3 nationally in scoring (48.4 ppg), but the Wolverines will bring a defense that’s a different animal.
Lynn’s defense can do enough — and that means slowing Haynes and Underwood on the ground — to put the Trojans in position to win. USC’s offense will have plenty of success, just as the Oklahoma and Nebraska offenses did against the Wolverines. Maiava, a former UNLV transfer, is 7-2 as the Trojans’ starter and he’s far superior to Underwood as a passer.
Riley’s problems have come mostly on the road, and he still has trips coming up to Notre Dame, Nebraska and Oregon. I’m betting he gets this win at the Coliseum, but with the Circa Sports line at -2.5 (-120), I’ll lay the moneyline price.
Best Bet: USC -140 moneyline
Ohio State (-14.5) at Illinois
The Fighting Illini stepped up as a home underdog to beat USC 34-32 on Sept. 27. Luke Altmyer passed for 328 yards and two touchdowns against the Trojans and he added 390 passing yards and a touchdown in a win at Purdue a week ago. Altmyer has found a groove as Illinois has rebounded from its humiliating loss at Indiana. The top-ranked Buckeyes have the No. 1 scoring defense (5.0 ppg), so it might be a long day for Altmyer. This will be only the second road start for Ohio State freshman quarterback Julian Sayin, who passed for 208 yards in a 24-6 win at Washington. I almost always believe the Buckeyes are laying inflated numbers on the road and usually get burned, so I’ll hedge the side by also looking Under the total.
Best Bets: Illinois +14.5 and Under 51 (half-unit each)
Indiana at Oregon (-7.5)
Hoosiers coach Curt Cignetti is being labeled a bully for blowing out lightweights (and a respectable Illinois team) yet failing to step up against the heavyweights. It’s true Indiana fell well short against Notre Dame and Ohio State last year, but, to be fair, those were road games against teams that played for the national championship. This is another road test against a title contender, so what will be different? The Hoosiers are better than they were a year ago and have a better quarterback, Fernando Mendoza, who has 73% completions and 16 touchdown passes. The underdog has the coaching and talent to put a scare into the Ducks.
Best Bet: Indiana +7.5
Oklahoma (-1) vs. Texas
It makes no sense for the Sooners to upgrade quarterback John Mateer to probable to play in this game just 17 days after surgery on a broken bone in his throwing hand. If he’s really going to play, Oklahoma should have left his status as questionable to leave the Longhorns guessing. Mateer will likely play, yet how effective he can be is a mystery. The Sooners will be in trouble if backup Michael Hawkins is forced to play much. This appears to be a rare spot when backing Texas’ less-than-dynamic duo of coach Steve Sarkisian and quarterback Arch Manning is an appealing option. What’s most obvious is both defenses are elite and the quarterbacks will have problems putting points on the board.
Best Bets: Texas +1 and Under 45 (half-unit each)
Florida at Texas A&M (-7.5)
It is being reported that Florida coach Billy Napier must finish 8-4 to keep his job. “Sun Belt Billy” is 2-3 after beating Texas, so he needs a miracle if that reporting is true. The Gators came through for me last week and I’ll go with them again. The offense woke up against the Longhorns with DJ Lagway passing for 298 yards and freshman Dallas Wilson debuting with 111 yards and two touchdown receptions. The Aggies’ offense hit a speed bump in a lackluster 16-10 win over Auburn two weeks ago, and this should be another tight one.
Best Bet: Florida +7.5
Purdue at Minnesota (-8)
In a 42-3 beatdown at Ohio State, the Golden Gophers were limited to 162 total yards. Minnesota is in a bounce-back spot against a soft Purdue defense, but coach Barry Odom’s defense is especially weak against the pass and that’s not the Gophers’ strength. Odom is hunting for his first Big Ten win and he has a shot in Minneapolis. The Boilermakers averaged 24.7 points in recent losses to Illinois, Notre Dame and USC with quarterback Ryan Browne running the offense. It’s interesting to note Browne is a North Carolina castoff, forced by coach Bill Belichick to transfer after the spring, and Browne is clearly better than any of the Tar Heels’ current quarterbacks.
Best Bet: Purdue +8
San Diego State (-7.5) at Nevada
Freshman quarterback Carter Jones entered in relief last week and nearly led Nevada to an upset at Fresno State, which held on to win 20-17. Jones passed for 121 yards and two touchdowns. He’s a major upgrade from starter Chubba Purdy, who has one touchdown pass and eight interceptions for the season. The Wolf Pack defense has been hanging tough. In the Aztecs’ only road games, they were blown out by 23 at Washington State and grinded out an ugly 6-3 win at Northern Illinois. If Jones is for real, the Wolf Pack could be howling Saturday night in Reno.
Best Bet: Nevada +7.5
Last week: 1-4 against the spread
Season: 17-16-3
For more college football Week 7 best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Week 7 hub, exclusively on VSiN.
