Week 7 College Football Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Matt Youmans
When the 12-team bracket for the College Football Playoff was unveiled in December, the exclusion of Notre Dame made it obvious the playoff system still was broken. Those who hate the Fighting Irish and their stubbornness to remain independent loved it, but it was wrong. The playoff field was headed for certain expansion for many reasons, not just that one.
Eight teams is probably enough, but if the powers that be want more, the right number is 16. It’s not a perfect world, of course, but a 16-team bracket is close to perfect. News leaked this week that the field will be expanding to 24 teams, possibly as soon as the 2027 season. It’s not ideal, but it’s also not the end of the world.
At the end of the 2025 regular season, Notre Dame was No. 3 in my power rankings, and a majority of analysts agreed. Only Ohio State and Indiana would have been favored over the Irish on a neutral field — the Hoosiers being favored was not a certainty — and that’s why it was wrong. A 16-team field was needed last year.
The Big Ten has been pushing for 24 and the SEC has warmed up to the proposal, so it’s going to be a done deal. The Big Ten and SEC own almost all of the power, and Notre Dame has a little. Money and greed have ruined many great things throughout history, and hopefully college sports are not next.
We are about to witness another incredible Saturday of games, starting in Bloomington, Indiana and ending in Honolulu. Notre Dame is featured in my college football best bets for Week 7:
Ohio State (-3.5) at Indiana
How will the Hoosiers defend the unstoppable force that is Buckeyes receiver Jeremiah Smith? Indiana coach Curt Cignetti and his defensive coordinator, Bryant Haines, will have to figure out a way. Smith had eight receptions for 144 yards in the Big Ten title game, but the Hoosiers pulled out a 13-10 win because they made more plays on third and fourth downs while Buckeyes coach Ryan Day made a few big mistakes. Cignetti does not make those mistakes, which is why he’s got a 33-2 record and a 22-game win streak.
Smith is not going to be stopped, but Ohio State’s running attack (which produced only 58 yards in the Big Ten title game) still is far from explosive. The Buckeyes are perceived to be dominant defensively, but they have faced four weak offenses and they had problems against the other two as Arch Manning led Texas to three fourth-quarter touchdowns and Illinois totaled 462 yards, including 199 on the ground. Indiana quarterback Josh Hoover has two big-play receivers, Charlie Becker and Nick Marsh, and Hoover has 17 touchdown passes with zero interceptions. Hoover needs to continue the no-turnover trend. Cignetti as a home underdog getting more than a field goal is an offer I can’t refuse.
Best Bet: Indiana +3.5
Florida State at Miami (-21)
The Seminoles were left for dead in early September, but they have shown signs of life and should show up for this rivalry game. Ashton Daniels passed for 377 yards and led Florida State to a 21-6 lead in an eventual 14-point loss to Alabama in Tuscaloosa. The Seminoles smoked Virginia 38-7 and were one yard from a 21-0 lead at Louisville last week before coach Mike Norvell blew it and his team eventually was blown out. The Hurricanes were 4-point favorites in a 28-22 win in Tallahassee last year.
Best Bet: Florida State +21
Notre Dame (-10.5) at Brigham Young
An injury to LJ Martin, one of the top running backs in the nation, is a major setback to the BYU offense. Martin’s absence basically means quarterback Bear Bachmeier must be a one-man wrecking crew against Notre Dame’s fourth-ranked scoring defense (11 ppg). Bachmeier has passed for 1,033 yards and rushed for 239 while totaling 12 touchdowns in five games, but now he’s facing a defense with elite athletes all over the field. Bachmeier has made few negative plays, with one interception and three sacks in 116 pass attempts. The Irish know exactly what’s coming and they probably will do a solid job of wrestling with the Bear.
Irish quarterback CJ Carr has Heisman-worthy numbers (70.8% completions, 16 touchdowns, one interception), but this is his biggest test aside from his first start in last season’s opener at Miami. Notre Dame had some difficulties on the road against North Carolina in a 37-26 win and will face more adversity in a hostile atmosphere at altitude. The Cougars are 15-2 ATS in their past 17 as underdogs in the mountains of Provo. BYU needs to run effectively and turn this into a grinder. I’ll predict the Irish survive, 27-20.
Best Bet: BYU +10.5
New Mexico (-15) at Hawaii
It’s not a big surprise to see Hawaii struggling because several key players were lost from last year’s 9-4 team. It was not supposed to be this ugly. After a 1-5 start, diminutive quarterback Micah Alejado has only five touchdown passes with four interceptions and while taking 17 sacks. The Lobos rank No. 3 in the nation in scoring defense (10.6 ppg), but star linebacker Jaxton Eck and top cornerback Frankie Edwards have been ruled out with injuries, so the Warriors will catch a break and should be competitive. New Mexico’s passing offense is mediocre, and the Hawaii defense has been decent at stopping the run. This appears to be too many points to give a desperate home dog in Honolulu.
Best Bet: Hawaii +15
Last week: 3-2 against the spread
Season: 23-10-5
For more college football Week 7 best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Week 7 hub, exclusively on VSiN.
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