Tuley’s Takes – Week 7 College Football Best Bets, Picks and Predictions:
October continued to be bountiful for us here in the Tuley’s Take home office as we went 5-0 ATS last week with two of our “dog or pass” plays pulling outright upsets.
We started Saturday with Nebraska +7.5 in a 20-17 home loss vs. No. 7 Indiana, then won with UCLA +11.5 in a 17-15 shocking upset at No. 13 Oregon, Syracuse +9.5 in a 28-25 spread-covering loss at Virginia, Georgia Southern +7.5 in a 24-17 spread-covering home loss vs. James Madison and Purdue +2.5 in 41-13 home rout vs. Minnesota. That makes our Best Bets here 8-1 ATS the last two weeks to actually get us back over .500 at 13-12 ATS after a horrendous start to the CFB season.
Our game plan laid out two weeks ago of looking for home dogs and also avoiding overmatched dead dogs in the SEC has certainly worked better. (Though I wish I had made an exception last Saturday with Georgia vs. Alabama, as I mentioned, I leaned toward the Bulldogs pulling the minor upset but passed because of my SEC boycott.)
We’re hitting the halfway point of the CFB season with Week 7 of 13, so hopefully we can carry the momentum into the second half of the season. I have four (hopefully) live dogs for Saturday, with two at home with Indiana and BYU to keep with our recent winning theme.
#4 Ohio State at #5 Indiana (+3.5)
After having Indiana to win last season’s CFB Playoff, I gave them out at +245 to repeat as Big Ten champions in the VSiN College Football Betting Guide back in July. That’s actually a bet to win the conference championship game in December, but if I thought they could win outright at a neutral site, I certainly have to take them getting more than a field goal in this Saturday’s midseason classic at home.
The Hoosiers were lucky to stay undefeated by rallying to beat Nebraska 17-15 last week (and I was happy to fade them vs. the Cornhuskers), but that was a clear look-ahead spot with their focus on this game against Ohio State, which started the season ranked No. 1 but lost 24-23 at Texas in Week 2. The Buckeyes have mostly coasted against lesser opponents since then, but these teams are pretty equal in all regards, including their rankings, and this should come down to a FG just like Indiana’s 13-10 win in the Big Ten title game last December.
And I don’t know anyone currently who would take OSU’s Ryan Day over IU’s Curt Cignetti. Marc Lawrence of playbooksports.com, longtime handicapper and frequent VSiN guest, points out that Ohio State is 1-5 ATS in its last six revenge conference games under Day, while Cignetti has a bunch of trends in his favor, including my favorite one being 5-0 SU & ATS as home underdogs vs. teams with a .750 winning percentage against FBS schools.
College Football Best Bet: Indiana +3.5
Cincinnati (+2) at West Virginia
In another noon ET kickoff back East, Cincinnati visits West Virginia in a Big 12 (Big 12, really?) matchup. I’m not sure the right team is favored here with Cincinnati at 4-1 (1-1 in the Big 12) and West Virginia at 3-3 (0-3 in conference), but I’ll take the small points.
Both teams can run the ball well, with the Mountaineers averaging 295.5 rushing yards per game and the Bearcats at 230.8. The difference is that West Virginia’s defense is sieve-like, allowing 36 points per game and more than 450 total yards per game. I’ll also take Cincy QB JC French IV, who doesn’t throw for a lot of yards with the emphasis on the running game, but he’s played the game-manager role to a T with six TD passes and zero INTs. Unlike our other dogs, I’m definitely calling for the outright upset here with the spread so low.
College Football Best Bet: Cincinnati +2
Florida (+11.5) at #7 Texas
OK, I know I’m going against my self-imposed boycott of SEC games, but this does fit into the scenario at the end of my intro where what I was really avoiding were overmatched dogs that happened to be in the SEC (where it does appear to be a bigger gap in NIL money and talent between the haves and the have-nots). I should have made Georgia an official Best Bet since they’re obviously not a have-not (luckily, I did play the Bulldogs in some season-long SU and ATS contests and confidence pools, but I’d rather have me and my followers winning cash now).
Well, Florida isn’t a have-not either, so I’m jumping back into the SEC here with the Gators as live underdogs at No. 7 Texas. I gave out the Longhorns +650 to win the CFB Playoff in the VSiN College Football Betting Guide back in July, so I’m certainly hoping they win outright here. However, after watching their games, they didn’t look like the No. 1 team in the country in their first four wins, and they lost 27-24 at Oklahoma last Saturday. That also puts them in a “mini-anti-swagger” role as well as they could certainly have a letdown after having their undefeated season ended and will be content with a one-score win here, like they tend to play.
Florida has lost two straight at Missouri and at South Carolina to fall out of the Top 25, but if they can return to their earlier form when they won 44-39 at Auburn and 52-28 vs. No. 4 Ole Miss, they should be able to match Texas score for score and cover this big number. We’re hopeful that Florida QB Aaron Philo (questionable, shoulder) will be able to play Saturday, but I’ve often taken backup QBs with success in spots like this and hope the return of WR Vernell Brown III, who missed the last two games, helps either starter.
College Football Best Bet: Florida +11.5
#2 Notre Dame at #8 BYU (+10.5)
Both teams enter this Top 10 matchup undefeated after the CFB Playoff Committee passed them over last December. Notre Dame hasn’t really been tested yet and gets some criticism for its relatively cupcake schedule and easy path to the CFB Playoff as an Independent.
While I know some CFB bettors are backing the Irish as a chance to prove themselves against a quality opponent, I think the oddsmakers (and the betting market) have set this line too high and haven’t given BYU enough respect. The Cougars are 3-0 in Big 12 play and atop the standings (whatever happens here doesn’t count against them in the conference race) and also haven’t been tested, with their closest win being 17-10 at TCU in the rain.
Notre Dame leads the nation, allowing just 11 points per game, but again that’s against a softer schedule, while BYU’s defense isn’t too shabby at 13.4 ppg. The Irish have the better passing game with Heisman candidate CJ Carr (1,378, 16 TDs, just 1 INT), but BYU’s Bear Brandmeier has thrown for 1,272 yards himself with nine TDs and also just 1 INT, and can also take over a game with his running, as he did against TCU with leading rusher LJ Martin probably missing another game.
We also like that this is a step up in class for Notre Dame, and Lawrence points out that the Irish haven’t beaten a Top 10 team on the road since 2012, while BYU has been gold under coach Kalani Sitake at 8-1 ATS vs. undefeated opponents and 15-2 SU and ATS in its last 17 games as home dogs. Woof, woof.
College Football Best Bet: BYU +10.5
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