Week 9 College Football Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Matt Youmans
Here are my Week 9 college football best bets:
Missouri at Vanderbilt (-2.5)
Everyone appreciates a Cinderella story out of nowhere, whether it’s an unknown former greenskeeper becoming the Masters champion with a clutch final shot or a college football player who received no scholarship offers out of high school and turned into a Heisman Trophy favorite. The latter is the story of Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia.
The 10th-ranked Commodores (6-1) host No. 15 Missouri (6-1) on Saturday in Nashville, where the winner will emerge with Southeastern Conference title dreams intact. The loser will not be forced to sing along to a sad country song about losing a girlfriend, a job, a pickup truck and a big game all in one weekend. The loser still will be in the hunt for big things.
Pavia is in the Heisman hunt. Once a long shot, he’s at +700 on the DraftKings odds board as the fourth choice behind Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza (+340), Alabama’s Ty Simpson (+350) and Ohio State’s Julian Sayin (+400). Pavia’s play makes him worthy of the award and his story makes him an even more attractive candidate.
The 6-foot Pavia is on the small side and that’s why he left high school in Albuquerque and landed at New Mexico Military Institute, where he led the Broncos to the junior college national championship. After two years in the middle of nowhere, he moved down the road to Las Cruces and spent two years at New Mexico State, leading the Aggies to a rare bowl win. Pavia hit the transfer portal and followed a coach to Vanderbilt, eventually sparking the Commodores to an upset of No. 1 Alabama in October 2024. That’s the short version of his story, which has more to be written.
In a 31-24 victory over LSU last week, Pavia passed for 160 yards, ran for 86 yards and accounted for three touchdowns. The Commodores rushed for 239 yards and made a statement by controlling most of the game against one of the SEC’s elite teams.
A playoff appearance remains a possibility for Vanderbilt coach Clark Lea, who’s authoring an incredible turnaround tale with a program that was a longtime loser. Lea is working similar magic to what Curt Cignetti has done at No. 2 Indiana.
Do not overlook Missouri, which features Penn State transfer quarterback Beau Pribula, star running back Ahmad Hardy and an outstanding defense. Hardy, arguably the best running back in the SEC, has 840 yards and 11 touchdowns.
My biggest season win-total wager was on Missouri Over 7. That bet looks good, but the Tigers are not there yet with five games to go. Missouri was fortunate to escape with a 23-17 double-overtime win at Auburn a week ago. Alabama is responsible for the only loss suffered by both the Tigers and Commodores.
With Missouri on the road again, this is a better spot for Vanderbilt, which proved its toughness by handling LSU. I prefer to side with Pavia to keep the good times rolling in Nashville.
Best Bet: Vanderbilt -2.5
Brigham Young at Iowa State (-2.5)
Situational handicapping points to the Cyclones, who are off a bye and catching BYU after its emotional rivalry win against Utah. The Utes finished with a 102-yard advantage against the Cougars, who were plus-2 in turnover margin to help keep their undefeated season alive. BYU (7-0) has played with fire more than once, including in a lucky double-overtime win at Arizona on Oct. 11, and will soon get burned. Iowa State has a veteran quarterback in Rocco Becht and matches up well due to its strong run defense, which is a big key to beating BYU because its offense mostly runs through running back LJ Martin and freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier on the ground.
Best Bet: Iowa State -2.5
Texas (-7) at Mississippi State
Blake Shapen is the better quarterback in this matchup. Shapen passed for 324 yards in the Bulldogs’ 23-21 loss at Florida last week. Meanwhile, Arch Manning and the Longhorns staged another dismal offensive display in a 16-13 overtime win at Kentucky. Manning went 12-for-27 with 132 passing yards as Texas finished with only eight first downs while getting outgained 395-179. Mississippi State has either won or been within one score in every game aside from a lopsided loss at Texas A&M. We need more cowbell.
Best Bet: Mississippi State +7
Wisconsin at Oregon (-31.5)
The sad truth is the Badgers can’t do much to help this score top the total. Wisconsin has been shut out in back-to-back games and has failed to score more than 14 points in any of its past five games. Maybe the Badgers can get a couple of field goals or a garbage-time touchdown in a blowout, but don’t count on much. The Ducks should top 40 points and probably 50 on their own. Dante Moore passed for four touchdowns last week when Oregon led Rutgers 42-3 at halftime and rolled 56-10 while totaling an astounding 750 yards.
Best Bet: Wisconsin-Oregon Over 45
Michigan (-14.5) at Michigan State
Freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood has been bad in the Wolverines’ three road games, averaging 51% completions and 151 passing yards. Michigan, which beat the Spartans 24-17 last year in Ann Arbor, is definitely superior defensively. However, Michigan State quarterback Aidan Chiles was impressive at Indiana while completing 27 of 33 passes for 243 yards and running for 48 yards. The Spartans were able to hang with the Hoosiers and should have a shot against the Wolverines if Chiles continues to play well.
Best Bet: Michigan State +14.5
Texas A&M (-2.5) at LSU
It’s no secret the third-ranked Aggies (7-0) are on upset alert as they head to Death Valley, where LSU coach Brian Kelly owns a 13-0 record in Saturday night games. The critics are all over Kelly and he desperately needs this one. He also needs a big-time performance from quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, who has had a disappointing season after entering as a Heisman candidate. Nussmeier is capable against a Texas A&M defense that allowed 42 points at Arkansas a week ago. I’ll buy the half-point if +3 doesn’t show before kickoff.
Best Bet: LSU +3 (-135)
Last week: 2-2 against the spread
Season: 23-20-4
For more college football Week 9 best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Week 9 hub, exclusively on VSiN.
