Week 9 College Football Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Matt Youmans
It’s a bye week for the Hawaii football team, and it’s also time to say goodbye to June Jones, who died Thursday at 73. Jones is Hawaii’s all-time winningest coach with 76 victories in nine years, including a 23-4 record in his last two seasons in 2006-07. He was known for popularizing the run-and-shoot offense, which was much more about shooting than running.
Jones learned the run-and-shoot from its founder, Mouse Davis, the coach at Portland State in the mid-1970s when Jones was his quarterback. Jones played and coached in the NFL and Canadian Football League. He is remembered most for his time at Hawaii, where he recruited record-setting quarterback Timmy Chang, the program’s current head coach. Jones was an innovator who put Hawaii football on the map, and his passing offenses were entertaining. The Wisconsin-Iowa matchup this weekend will be something entirely different, and that game does not make my list of college football best bets for Week 9.
Ohio State (-6.5) at USC
Lincoln Riley’s time in Los Angeles seems to be nearing an end, though he could quiet the critics and coaching hot-seat talk by upsetting Ohio State on what is expected to be a rainy night at the Coliseum. This is the ideal time to catch the Buckeyes, who lost star quarterback Julian Sayin to an arm injury during the win at Indiana and will move forward with either Luke Fahey or Tavien St. Clair. Fahey is the probable starter and both quarterbacks could see action. In limited action this season, Fahey and St. Clair combined for 20 pass attempts and three of those were intercepted. Ohio State has issues on its offensive line and its running attack has stalled, so coach Ryan Day is likely to use a conservative game plan with one obvious mission — get the ball to receiver Jeremiah Smith every way possible.
The Trojans have the talent to match up with the Buckeyes, but are they tough enough to do it for four quarters and is their defense up to the task? USC’s defense was not the problem in a 24-7 loss at Wisconsin last week, when the Badgers totaled only 200 yards. Senior quarterback Jayden Maiava threw two interceptions and was sacked five times. Riley is known for coaching great quarterbacks and soft teams, and Maiava will need to be great in this one. I bet USC +7 early this week and Circa Sports currently shows Ohio State -6.5 (-120), so consider buying the half-point on the underdog at the reasonable price. Under the total of 51.5 is worth a look.
Best Bet: USC +7 (-120)
Illinois (-2.5) at Maryland
With the Terrapins sitting 0-4 in Big Ten play, Mike Locksley was fired as coach heading into a bye week. Longtime assistant Aazaar Abdul-Rahim, a Washington DC native, is the interim head coach. Maryland has a potentially dynamic dual-threat quarterback in sophomore Malik Washington, and that’s more than Illinois can say. In a 21-10 upset of Oregon a week ago, freshman Michael Clayton passed for 84 yards and the Illini were outgained by 112 yards. As VSiN host Tim Murray has pointed out, the fired coach angle has been profitable. Last season, teams with a fired coach went 8-4 ATS in their next game. With Illinois off a big win and on the road, Maryland should have a good shot to stop its 12-game conference losing streak.
Best Bet: Maryland +2.5
Georgia (-12.5) vs. Florida
I’m not crazy about the idea of betting against Georgia coach Kirby Smart after his then-No. 1 team was stunned 27-24 by Auburn. The Bulldogs outgained the Tigers 440-366 but were minus-3 in turnover margin on a day when senior Gunner Stockton threw two picks. Both teams are off byes, and Florida upset Texas 27-24 prior to the week off. The Gators sacked the Longhorns’ Arch Manning five times and will need to put similar heat on Stockton.
This rivalry is moving inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta after being an outdoor cocktail party in Jacksonville since 1995. Smart has owned the Gators, winning five straight and eight of the past nine meetings. Why would this be different? Florida has a much-improved coaching staff now led by Jon Sumrall and offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner. The Gators’ quarterback situation is somewhat concerning, though Aaron Philo and Tramell Jones are both ready to play and receiver Vernell Brown is back from a knee injury. Georgia will win this game again, but hopefully it’s a smart move to take the points.
Best Bet: Florida +12.5
Miami (FL) (-14) at North Carolina
The Hurricanes are up to No. 1 after Georgia’s loss, but on their way to 7-0 there was a speed bump in a controversial 43-35 double-overtime victory over Florida State on Oct. 17. The Seminoles were three-touchdown underdogs. Darian Mensah has been magnificent, completing 81.4% of his passes with 22 touchdowns and one interception, and Malachi Toney is the nation’s second-best receiver. Bill Belichick is known for scheming defenses that limit or take away the opposition’’s top weapon, which in this case is Toney, but Belichick had the personnel to do that in the NFL and this North Carolina defense is nowhere near elite. With Belichick angry after a bad loss to Syracuse, and with the Hurricanes possibly looking ahead to Notre Dame, the dog looks live in Chapel Hill.
Best Bet: North Carolina +14
Oregon State (-6) at Fresno State
Raise your hand if you predicted Oregon State would be one of the best stories in college football. Seeing no hands, I’ll tell you why that’s the case. Braden Atkinson, a sophomore transfer from Mercer, has 24 touchdown passes with two interceptions and his primary target, freshman speedster Jesse Legree, is averaging 22.6 yards per reception with 14 TDs. The Beavers have won five in a row. Fresno coach Matt Entz dropped back-to-back games before a bye and needs to get back on track. The Bulldogs’ stock has bottomed out with this line, so now could be the time to buy the home dog.
Best Bet: Fresno State +6
Last week: 4-1 against the spread
Season: 30-12-5
For more Week 9 college football best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Week 9 hub, exclusively on VSiN.
