College Football Week 9 Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:
I took college football Week 7 off to refresh both my mind and my data, as I called it, and it paid off in Week 8. My best bets (12-5 ATS) and Effective Play-by-play lines (34-22 ATS) both did very well. Even with the overall success, there were still some easy wins, some definitive losses, and a couple of games, as usual, that I thought I had the right side on but still lost.
As we head into Week 9, my season best bets mark is now 65-62-1 ATS (51.2%). Man, I sure wish I could flush that 5-14 from Week 6 away. In any case, the Week 9 slate looks pretty loaded, with a couple Top 25 matchups and some ranked teams hitting the road and playing as underdogs at unranked teams. I will be in Oxford, MS to take in the Auburn-Ole Miss contest so I am excited about that one. With that said, after poring through this week’s loaded VSiN College Football Analytics Report, I have settled on these games for Week 9:
Thursday, October 29, 2026
Troy at James Madison (Total 49.5)
You have to think that James Madison head coach Billy Napier gave his defense a tongue lashing after the 34-31 loss last week to Appalachian State. That unit has been pretty solid beforehand and even after that contest, is still holding teams 8.4 points below their effective average scoring totals. The Dukes are no longer undefeated and will have to fight hard the rest of the way to stay in the CFP picture.
Looking at that defensive metric I just showed, it that holds true, we should expect Troy to score around 17 points. Those are body of work numbers. With the Trojans putting up just 14 and 6 points the last two weeks on the Louisiana duo, I think that 17 number is overstated. Let’s go with 13. With a total of 49.5, do I think the Trojans can hold JMU to 36 or less? For sure. They haven’t allowed that much all year and in fact, are yielding just 24.9 PPG on average. This is a solid defense, and a team that tends to play at a slower pace under head coach Gerad Parker.
Getting back to JMU’s loss at ASU, teams coming off a road conference upset loss in which they were favored by -7 or more have been big Under the total teams, 67-49 (57.8%) since 2021. These teams’ defensive points allowed fell from 31.8 PPG to 21.7 PPG. In addition, Sun Belt non-Saturday games have gone Under the total at a 57-33-1 (63.3%) rate since 2015. There’s also over 90% of the handle and bets at DraftKings on Over and they aren’t raising the number.
College Football Best Bet: Let’s go Under 49.5 in Troy-James Madison
Friday, October 30, 2026
Tulane (-10) at Charlotte
Before Charlotte’s shocking 38-31 upset win at Temple last week, you could have argued the 49ers were one of the worst teams in the FBS. Does that game, one which seemed much overpriced, change anything for Charlotte in the grand scheme of things? To me, absolutely not. In fact, the victory could have a bad hangover effect: Teams playing at home in conference games as dogs of more than 3 points after a huge upset win as a double-digit road underdog have been a play against team, 32-50 ATS (39%) since 2010. The 49ers are just 5-23 (17.9%) ATS in their last 28 home games. Meanwhile, Tulane has been horribly inconsistent in this first season under head coach Will Hall, but as a program, it is 13-5-1 ATS (72.2%) as a road favorite since 2020. Not to mention, AAC favorites in the -7 to -12 line range have gone 120-19 SU and 77-56-6 ATS (57.9%) in conference play since 2015. The Green Wave are 10-point favorites here. With Charlotte boasting just a one-point home-field advantage, my power ratings say it should be 18.6.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll lay the 10 points with Tulane at Charlotte
Saturday, October 31, 2026
Georgia Tech (+7.5) at Pittsburgh
The Georgia Tech-Pittsburgh game is one of the handful of contests on my Effective Play-by-play Ratings that show an edge for one team on the body of work numbers, but an opposite edge on the recent numbers. I believe it in this case, because Pittsburgh has been a completely different team since QB Eli Heintschel went out with the injury in the Virginia Tech game at the beginning of October. Including that contest, the Panthers were averaging 38 PPG. Since then, they’ve scored just 20.3 PPG in a three-game SU and ATS losing skid.
After getting blown out by Miami last week, they now face this difficult system against Georgia Tech: Teams that have lost their last three games SU and ATS, all in conference play, have gone just 64-96 ATS (40%) when hosting a conference foe in the next game. and teams playing in a home conference game after losing and yielding 48+ points to another conference rival the previous game are just 75-108 ATS (41%) since 2020. The money at DK is behind the Yellow Jackets too, and when a 58% or greater majority of the handle has been on road underdogs for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone 177-156-2 ATS (53.2%). Under head coach Brent Key, Georgia Tech has been a great underdog and is currently on a 9-1 ATS (90%) run in the last 10 as a single-digit underdog in conference games
College Football Best Bet: Let’s go with Georgia Tech +7.5 on Saturday at Pitt
Illinois (-2.5) at Maryland
Maryland has had two weeks to stew over losing to Rutgers at home and extending its Big Ten losing streak to 12 games. Now, according to oddsmakers, they have a pretty good chance to upset an Illinois team that has won back-to-back games in league play and has been on a different level in recent years. Does the week off help the Terps in getting ready for this one? In most cases, you would think so, but Maryland is 0-12 SU and 2-10 ATS (16.7%) in the last 12 post-bye week games.
At the same time, Illinois is 20-10 (66.7%) ATS in road/neutral games since 2021. We also have a system in play describing that Big 10 road favorites of -4 or less have gone 30-13 SU and 27-16 ATS (62.8%) in conference play since 2021. If you’re looking at metrics, my Effective Play-by-play numbers show Illinois should be favored by 4.3 here, not 2.5. The recent Effective Play-by-play numbers suggest the line should be Illinois -6.7, a number quite similar to my Power Ratings (-6.8).
College Football Best Bet: It’s Illinois -2.5 at Maryland for me
Appalachian State at Georgia Southern (-5.5)
Appalachian State comes off the huge win over previously unbeaten James Madison but has been wildly inconsistent this season. That continues a trend from recent years, as the Mountaineers have struggled to string together long winning streaks. They have also struggled in this series, as Georgia Southern is 6-3 SU and 8-1 ATS in the last nine head-to-head matchups with App State. GSU has covered six of seven games this season and seems better than oddsmakers give credit for.
This figures to be a good spot, since Georgia Southern is 24-7 ATS (77.4%) as a home favorite since 2018. The money and bets at DK are backing the Panthers here too, as over 90% of the handle is on that side. That won’t be a concern at -5.5, when a 68%+ majority of the handle was on home favorites of 7 points or fewer for an ATS wager since the start of the 2023 season, this majority group is 97-77 ATS (55.7%). The raw stats, particularly my Effective Play-by-play ratings, also show GSU should be a double-digit favorite in both full-season and recent trend numbers.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll go with Georgia Southern -5.5 to take down Appalachian State
Boston College (+7) at Duke
Duke has played in three consecutive very tight games, all decided by 4 points or less, including last week’s 19-16 win at Virginia. That puts the Blue Devils in a tough spot for this week against BC as home favorites off a small conference upset haven’t been good bets: Teams coming off outright conference upsets when a dog of +3 points or fewer are just 67-100 ATS (40.1%) when favored at home in the follow-up game. As it is, Boston College is 33-18 (64.7%) ATS in Conference games since 2020, and underdogs are 2-4 SU but 5-1 ATS in the last six of the BC-Duke set.
The fact that the Golden Eagles are playing their best football of the season, having won four straight ATS also needs to be given consideration here, as that is the longest such winning streak in the three-year head coach Bill O’Brien era. The Effective Play-by-play numbers, both in the full body of work and in the recent trend, also suggest this spread is a bit high. And the betting splits at DraftKings show 83% of the handle on Duke. Going back to the start of the 2022 season, when more than 75% of the handle was on one side of an ATS wager, that majority group has gone just 652-718 ATS (47.6%). BC is playing well enough to be a live dog here; Duke is not playing well enough offensively to lay a lot of points.
College Football Best Bet: I got Boston College +7 at Duke
Minnesota at Indiana (Total 41.5)
I had an interesting conversation with my betting nephew last week, and he said he makes a list of teams that need to be considered for Unders on totals every week, regardless of who they play. Minnesota is one of those teams, and this week the Golden Gophers face one of the country’s most formidable defenses in Indiana. The Hoosiers hold teams 22.9 points below their effective averages. At the same time, Minnesota scores just 7 points more per game than their opponents effectively allow. The math on both of these models suggests we should not see more than 11 points from the Gophers on Saturday in Bloomington.
I try to make it a regular point to go against teams that are expected to score so few points. However, in this case, the Hoosiers’ offensive attack simply can’t be counted on to reach 30 after scoring just 48 over the last three games. Thus, the Under should be considered here. From a system standpoint, with UM having just won the big one over Iowa, teams coming off a win over a ranked team and playing another ranked team are 88-50 Under the total (63.8%) in these next contests dating back to September of 2021. This line/total combo also presents an intriguing angle: Big 10 home favorites in the -17 to -30.5 line range with a total of <= 56 have gone Under the total at a 42-21 (66.7%) rate in conference play since 2017.
The heavy handle action at DK (90%) also plays into my thinking: since the start of the 2022 season, in games with totals of 49 or lower, 72%+ of supermajority handle bettors siding with the Under have gone 79-63 (55.6%).
College Football Best Bet: Let’s go with Under 41.5 in Minnesota-Indiana
Notre Dame at Navy (+30.5)
A 6-1 vs. 2-5 matchup might suggest -30.5 is appropriate, but let’s be honest: do we really think there are 30 points between Notre Dame and Navy right now? My effective play-by-play numbers tell a much different, and more believable, story to me. The full season numbers say this spread should be closer to 24. The recent numbers say it should be 22. Remember, this game is being played on a neutral field.
Speaking of which, since the start of the 2016 season, neutral-field underdogs playing in revenge mode have gone 58-37 ATS (61.1%). Let’s not forget, Notre Dame looked pretty ordinary in its last outing, a loss at BYU, a team that went on to lose to UCF last week. Regarding the Irish, ranked teams coming off a close loss of 7 points or fewer and playing an unranked team are 126-31 SU but just 65-88-4 ATS (42.5%) since December of 2015. In addition, teams still ranked even after losing as 7-point favorites or more are 78-38 SU but 46-68-2 ATS (40.4%) in the follow-up games.
These teams are also 68-47-1 Under the total (59.1%) in these next contests since September of 2016. You might think the loss at BYU should wake up ND, but a closer look at the Navy season shows the Midshipmen have lost all five games by 10 points or less. They are much better than a 2-5 team and will be anxious to show it here.
College Football Best Bet: Give me Navy +30.5 to keep in more respectable vs. Notre Dame
Louisiana Tech (-5.5) at South Alabama
On the surface, this is a defensive mismatch with a relatively low point spread, and the underdog doesn’t have a real home-field advantage. Now, what does the data say? First, my Effective Play by play ratings for the season and recently show that the disparity between these teams is way greater than the oddsmakers are suggesting. In fact, the full-season metric shows Louisiana Tech should be more than a 2-TD road favorite.
Secondly, after coming off of back-to-back shutout wins, Louisiana Tech qualifies for a pretty nice system: Teams that have won back-to-back conference games both SU and ATS while being defensively dominant (<12 PPG allowed in those two games), have been tremendous when playing on the road in the next game, 60-35 ATS (63.2%) since 2019. And finally, recent Sun Belt history shows that mid-level favorites have been a solid play: favorites in the -3.5 to -10 line range are 72-30 SU and 61-41 ATS (59.8%) in conference play since 2015.
College Football Best Bet: With its sights set on the Sun Belt lead, I’ll back Louisiana Tech -5.5
Arizona at Texas Tech (-3.5)
Texas Tech has been one of the country’s best teams when responding to losses lately, going 18-4 ATS (81.8%) in its last 22 tries over the last five seasons. What’s more is Texas Tech is on a 10-game ATS winning streak in conference play when coming off a road loss. The Red Raiders really didn’t look good last week at Cincinnati, and with the CFP now on the line each week from here on out, I would expect a much more focused group. Ranked teams coming off of double-digit losses have responded nicely of late, going 68-30 SU and 57-40-1 ATS (58.8%) in the next game since November of 2021.
Of course, the primary reason I will be giving Texas Tech my backing here is that I religiously back the teams that qualify for the ranked team trifecta: 1) In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are 236-123 SU and 205-145-9 ATS (58.6%). 2) Digging deeper into that data, you will find that when the home team has been ranked better, those teams have gone 131-34 SU and 98-63-4 ATS (60.9%). And 3) Adding another point spread wrinkle to the last angle, when better-ranked home teams have been single-digit favorites or underdogs, they have gone 69-30 SU and 61-35-3 ATS (63.5%) since 2017. In Arizona’s only real other tough road game at BYU this season, the Wildcats lost by 11 and scored just 17 points. That seems realistic here too.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll go with Texas Tech -3.5 vs. Arizona
Oklahoma State (-8.5) at Iowa State
At the outset of the season, I reasoned that Iowa State’s complete rebuild was a nice opportunity for conference rivals to step on the Cyclones while they were down after years of the opposite. Much to my displeasure, ISU started the season reasonably well, 2-1 SU and ATS in non-conference play. However, since Big 12 play began, the season is unfolding just as I suspected. In their three Big 12 losses, the Cyclones have been overwhelmed by better teams, outscored 94-30.
OSU was also expected to be a rebuilding job this season for HC Eric Morris, but it’s nowhere near Iowa State’s level since he brought much of his North Texas talent to Stillwater, including QB Drew Mestemaker. The Cowboys have picked up right where UNT left off last year, winning and scoring a lot of points. In fact, they have covered six games in a row, setting up this angle for Saturday: Road/neutral teams who have won their last four ATS have been solid bets as larger favorites (-7.5 or higher) in the next game, going 88-18 SU and 58-44-4 ATS (56.9%) since 2016.
With ISU’s offensive struggles and OSU’s potency, I’m surprised to see my Effective Play-by-play numbers suggest the Cowboys should be favored by 15.4 points here (-24.6 if you look at recent action). And for as much as it isn’t a huge revenge spot for Morris as a head coach, it is for a program that was stepped on itself in the last two seasons: Teams who lost as underdogs but are now seeking revenge as road favorites of -4.5 or higher have performed well, going 54-12 SU and 42-23-1 ATS (64.6%) since 2017.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll back Oklahoma State -8.5 to keep rolling along
Arizona State at BYU (Total 48.5)
Historically, good teams that were upset on the road tend to bounce back defensively in the next outing. Here is the system I am focusing on for this ASU-BYU game: Teams coming off a road conference upset loss where they were favored by -7 or more have been big Under the total, 67-49 (57.8%) since 2021. These teams’ defensive points allowed fell from 31.8 PPG to 21.7 PPG.
After a stellar season, the Cougars allowed 39 points in their loss at UCF. Don’t think for a second that head coach Kelani Sitake will let that slide. Obviously, after being #2 last week, BYU is still ranked, and that will help the total play I’m looking at here as well, since teams ranked even after losing as 7-point favorites or more are 68-47-1 Under the total (59.1%) in these next contests since September of 2016.
Looking at the betting splits for this game, I have a couple of interesting takes. First, while 66% of the bets are on the Over, 90% of the handle is on the Under. The latter is known to be more sharp. Plus, since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 49 or lower, 72%+ supermajority handle bettors siding with the Under have gone 79-63 (55.6%). My statistical numbers suggest this total is right where it should be; my instincts tell me BYU will be way better defensively than a week ago.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll go with UNDER 48.5 in ASU-BYU
Northwestern (+3.5) at Oregon
One of the biggest disparities in the betting splits handles at DK for this week is in the Northwestern-Oregon game, where supposedly 97% of the money and 73% of the bets is on the visiting Wildcats up in Eugene. Is that a major concern for their backers? Normally it would be, except for these two betting splits systems: 1) When a majority of 55% or more of number of bets has backed road underdogs for an ATS wager over the past four seasons, this majority group has gone 172-146-1 ATS (54.1%). 2) When a 58% or greater majority of the handle has been on road underdogs for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone 177-156-2 ATS (53.2%).
Perhaps these bettors also recognize that this point spread is built more on reputation than on what the teams are now. Oregon’s season has been a bitter disappointment, falling from national title contender to bowl-game hopeful. Northwestern has completely overperformed and is now aiming for the goals the Ducks once had. Head coach Dan Lanning’s team comes off a brutal loss at Illinois, one of Oregon’s worst offensive showings in years. Conference home favorites coming off a double-digit conference loss are just 220-300 ATS (42.3%) since 2016. Add an expected line of Oregon -1.5 according to my Effective Play-by-play metrics, and I think we’re looking at a game where the underdog should be very live.
College Football Best Bet: Give me Northwestern +3.5 to at least threaten the “upset” at Oregon
Auburn at Ole Miss (+13.5)
As I mentioned in the intro, I will be taking in the Auburn-Ole Miss game so I have particular interest in the contest, both in general and in the unusually high line that was set for the game. What makes it even stranger is that Rebels RB Kewan Lacy, a preseason Heisman candidate, is expected to miss the game after getting injured against Texas. Speaking of which, ranked teams coming off a close loss of 7 points or fewer and playing an unranked team are 126-31 SU but just 65-88-4 ATS (42.5%) since December of 2015.
What also makes me think this line is exaggerated is that it seems based on a single result: Auburn getting drilled last week by LSU. Prior to that, the Tigers had been very competitive against one of the nation’s toughest schedules. In my opinion, they own the country’s best win so far: the 27-24 upset at Georgia. QB Byrum Brown could give Ole Miss fits here. As most of you know, I now publish about a half dozen different strength ratings based on various calculations and methodologies. None of them favor Ole Miss by more than 11.1, and none deduct for Lacy’s absence. Oh, and by the way, this has been a series dominated by road teams, as they are 7-1-2 ATS in the Tigers-Rebels SEC series since 2014, including five straight covers by Auburn in Oxford.
College Football Best Bet: Auburn getting +13.5 at Ole Miss seems to be a good value to me
Southern Miss (-3.5) at LA Monroe
Both Southern Miss and ULM come off of huge upset wins last weekend, but according to this system, one of them will not benefit from it: Teams playing at home in conference games as dogs of more than 3 points when coming off a huge upset win as a double-digit road underdog have been a play against team, 32-50 ATS (39%) since 2010. Let’s be honest: before the win over Troy, ULM was seen as one of the worst teams in the country. I don’t think the same was being said about Southern Miss, and this is the reasoning behind the road chalk line. There are a couple of bits of data regarding the Sun Belt Conference that come into play here: 1) LA Monroe is 3-13 ATS (18.8%) as a single-digit underdog in Conference games since 2019 2) Sun Belt Road Favorites in the -3.5 to -10 line range are 72-30 SU and 61-41 ATS (59.8%) in conference play since 2015. This head-to-head series also shows favorites are 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six Golden Eagles-Warhawks meetings.
As I noted on one of this week’s picks, I typically look for three strong data points to support my beliefs. For this game, there are about five, including my Effective Play-by-play ratings, which show that USM should be favored by 7.1 points here. Remember, these metrics were 34-22 ATS last week and over 56% for the last three weeks.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll back Southern Miss -3.5 to make it a rare two wins in a row
Wisconsin at Iowa (Total 36.5)
The famous limbo song wonders, “How low can you go?” The same could legitimately be said about the total in this Wisconsin-Iowa game for Saturday. It’s for good reason, too, as both teams lean on the run and play very well defensively. It’s an even more probable Under play, given the stakes: the winner puts itself in good shape to push for a CFP berth. I expect a fiercely competitive game.
Should we worry that the betting public at DraftKings is getting behind an Under in droves (95% handle)? Well, not really, because since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 49 or lower, 72%+ supermajority handle bettors siding with the Under have gone 79-63 (55.6%). There is also 56% of bets on the Over too, so it seems the sharp money expects low scoring.
Iowa’s 13-10 loss to Minnesota also sets up a nice total angle for Saturday: Teams coming off a road conference upset loss in which they were favored by -7 or more have been big Under the total teams, 67-49 (57.8%) since 2021. These teams’ defensive points allowed fell from 31.8 PPG to 21.7 PPG. Wisconsin is playing well, but struggled to 7 points on the road against a tough UCLA defense. Iowa’s is even better and Iowa City has been a tough spot for the Badgers to visit.
College Football Best Bet: Give me Under 36.5 in Wisconsin-Iowa
Texas State (+11.5) at Boise State
I sort of predicted it last week in one of my Best Bet winners, as I figured something was amiss with the line in the Texas State-Utah State game with such a huge offensive potency difference and the Bobcats coming off a game scoring 66 the week prior. Almost on cue, the TSU offense struggled against the Aggies, although they still were able to get a key conference win, one that sets them up in a nice spot for Saturday at Boise State: Over the last 13 years, CFB teams that won a conference game despite gaining less than 250 yards of offense have used that victory to build momentum, going 89-67-2 ATS (57.1%) in the follow-up contest. As I described, the TSU offense can put up big numbers, even against Boise State, making it a live underdog anytime in that role. In fact, my effective math calculations on how much teams outscore their opponents’ averages, offensively and defensively, suggest TSU should get at least 27 points here. With the Broncos averaging 34 but not yet topping 38, I expect a very competitive contest. If you want more, my Effective Play-by-play numbers for the season suggest Boise should be favored by only 0.6. I think TSU may have had a case of lookahead last week, too.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll back Texas State +11.5 as the high-scoring underdog
Northern Illinois (+24.5) at UNLV
I know Northern Illinois hasn’t won yet this season and is 1-6 ATS, but come on…lines like this in conference action are usually reserved for the best of the best. UNLV has done nothing to warrant being a 24.5-point favorite on anyone. In fact, the Runnin’ Rebels have been so wildly inconsistent this season that I would say they’re just as likely to lose outright as they are to cover the huge number. Obviously that is an exaggeration, but you get the picture.
From a historical standpoint, too, UNLV is in rare air here. In fact, I have CFB point spread data dating back to 1997. If this number holds, it will be the biggest home line the program has ever played to in database history. And I am telling you, this team does not deserve that honor. There are three systems I like that are in play for this contest: 1) Off the 41-31 loss to Air Force, conference home favorites like UNLV coming off a double-digit conference loss are just 220-300 ATS (42.3%) since 2016. 2) Teams coming off losses in which they were road dogs of less than 3 points are just 71-121 ATS (37%) in the follow-up game since 2018. 3) Road underdogs of +27 or fewer are 128-74 ATS (63.4%) coming off a loss of 27 points or more since 2022. There is heavy handle backing for NIU here too (98%), with 56% of bets on UNLV. I have a feeling the sharps are with me on this one.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll back Northern Illinois as the huge +24.5-point dog at UNLV
For more Week 9 college football best bets, visit the Week 9 College Football Betting Hub, exclusively on VSiN.com.
