Memphis Tigers:
Even though the opportunity is very limited for a Group of Five team in the expanded playoff, the fact that an opportunity even exists is the best news for a program like Memphis. Liberty is the favorite among G5 teams to make the College Football Playoff because of a remarkably weak schedule, but Memphis is not a team to sleep on.
The Liberty Bowl champs beat Iowa State, lost a heartbreaker to SMU, and took Missouri to the wire in St. Louis last season. This year, they’ll get a crack at Florida State in Tallahassee and have the type of roster capable of being among the top G5 teams in the country.
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Offense
Whether Memphis opened up the checkbook or head coach Ryan Silverfield is just really persuasive doesn’t matter. What matters is that Memphis brings back a ton of talent and production. Three-year starter Seth Henigan should crack 100 career TD passes and already flew by 10,000 career passing yards. He’ll also have nearly 2,000 yards worth of production and 122 catches from future NFLer Roc Taylor and WR2 Demeer Blankumsee back on the roster.
The loss of Blake Watson’s 1,632 scrimmage yards is a potentially big deal, but Memphis brought in South Carolina transfer Mario Anderson, who could be a stud in a softer conference. Silverfield is a former offensive line coach, so it is hard to worry about that side of the ball at any point.
Defense
The offense was 15th in yards per play and sixth in points per game. Unfortunately, the defense went in the complete opposite direction. The Tigers were 114th in yards per play against and 95th in scoring defense. Memphis racked up 6.55 yards per play and was just +0.29 in yards per play differential. What’s crazy is that Memphis was actually +5 in turnover margin and 25th in third-down conversion rate against!
The Tigers gave up the fourth-most plays of 20+ yards with 38 and had very little early-down success. In hopes of figuring things out, the Tigers promoted LB coach Jordon Hankins to DC . He held that position for the Liberty Bowl after Matt Barnes was let go. Memphis allowed 446 yards on just 22 completions in that game.
Outlook
The difficult part for Memphis is that their four hardest games are on the road – Florida State, South Florida, UTSA, and Tulane. So, even though this team looks quite loaded on offense and maybe improved on defense, I think the win total of 9 is very accurate. Memphis is a heavy home favorite in every game and favored in 11 of 12 games for me, but I have 9.11 wins in my projections. I’d lean 10-2 over 8-4, but 9-3 seems very likely.
Pick: Over 9 Wins
