Week 11 College Football: Miami (Ohio) vs. Ball State

Tuesday is a huge night in the United States, as MACtion makes its return on November 5. Two games from the Mid-American Conference are on the schedule to kick off Week 11. Bowling Green vs. Central Michigan and Miami (OH) vs. Ball State are the two in the spotlight and we’ll get two more on Wednesday as well.

Both games feature double-digit road favorites, but we’ve seen some underdog drama in these midweek games, so we’ll see if we get any of that here. We do have money on the Under in both games, so maybe that’s something to consider. I’ll write up both, starting with my stronger opinion on the battle of the birds between the RedHawks and Cardinals.

 

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For all of this week’s college football insights, refer to our College Football Week 11 Hub.

Miami (OH) RedHawks (-12, 49) at Ball State Cardinals

8 p.m. ET

Ball State comes into this game dead last in the nation in yards per play allowed. Things have been a bit better in league play, as the Cardinals allowed 7.77 YPP in non-conference action and have allowed 7.12 YPP against MAC foes. They “only” allowed 6.4 YPP in four October games, including a competitive loss to Vanderbilt.

But, Miami has found another gear recently. After getting off to a slow start with losses to Northwestern, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, and Toledo, Chuck Martin’s team has won three in a row and scored at least 30 points in each game. If they get to 30 in this one, they’re going to cover.

And I think they could. Miami has over seven yards per play in four conference games. And the defense has only allowed 4.1 YPP. This is a RedHawks crew that is nearly +3 YPP in conference games. That is utterly dominant. And it’s not like Ball State is better than the teams they’ve already beaten. 

In the loss to Toledo, the RedHawks had just 5.1 YPP, so that tells you what they’ve done against everybody else. I’d put the Cardinals a lot closer to “everybody else”. Miami even had 6.4 YPP against Ohio, a pretty good team in a game that was 30-6 entering the fourth quarter, so it wasn’t even as close as the final score.

It is worth noting that the total is moving down because we have rain and wind gusts up near 30 mph in the forecast. Ball State has allowed 5.8 yards per carry in conference games. I’m not sure if Miami will be able to throw the ball a lot, but they have the better defense, better run game, and better passing game.

I’d think about holding off on this number. I think the spread could come back down given the weather forecast and potential for an ugly game.

Pick: Miami (OH) -12

Other Tuesday Game

Bowling Green Falcons (-12.5, 49) at Central Michigan Chippewas: The weather will be anything but pleasant in Mount Pleasant for this game. Just like the game in Muncie, wind and rain are expected to be big factors, which is why this total has dropped four points and probably isn’t done. Gusts could be in the mid-30s with a steady rain.

Central Michigan is 30th in the nation in yards per carry with 5.02. They don’t do a lot of things well, but running the football is one of them. CMU’s problem has been taking care of the football. They have a negative TD/INT ratio, but they shouldn’t have to throw it much here. Both run defenses are bad. I actually think the Chips can keep this one close. They have a trio of competent running backs. Bowling Green has to rely heavily on Terion Stewart and the weather could take Connor Bazelak out of the game.

Pick: Central Michigan +12.5

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