Miami vs. Buffalo; Central Michigan vs. Kent State
Wednesday night MACtion features two games and all sorts of compelling storylines. Kent State has a chance at being bowl-eligible for the first time since 2021. Central Michigan might get a redo against directional rival Western Michigan in the MAC Championship Game. Miami and Buffalo are still very much in the mix as well, even if a certain RedHawks QB left the team to “start preparing for the NFL Draft”. I have something I like in both Miami vs. Buffalo and Central Michigan vs. Kent State, so let’s give them equal time.
Not only are there a lot of things to discuss, but there have been interesting line moves on the spreads for both games as well.
Odds from Circa Sports as of November 17, 6:00 p.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits. See all of our Week 13 College Football Picks and Predictions.
Miami (-1.5, 40) vs. Buffalo
7 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
ESPN opted for this game on The Deuce and the other on The U, as Miami heads to Buffalo as a road favorite. That was not the case at open, as Buffalo was clearly favored market-wide, but a Monday afternoon wave of money on the RedHawks made them a short price in Western New York.
Both teams are 4-2 in conference play, so this is effectively an elimination game in terms of making it to Detroit on the first Friday of December. Miami got some surprising news with Dequan Finn, a seventh-year college player, leaving the team to get ready for the NFL. Henry Hesson got the start in his place and was 11-of-38 for 147 yards with three interceptions, so it was not a great look.
It is a bit astonishing to see Miami slide into a favorite role after the debacle from Hesson, but the market was down on Buffalo coming into the season after overachieving last year and the market seems down on the Bulls late in the season as well. Given that Buffalo’s MAC wins are Kent State by 3, Eastern Michigan by 1, UMass by 7, and Bowling Green by 25, it’s easy to see why there isn’t a lot of love for UB.
Gunnar Gray took over for Ta’Quan Roberson in Buffalo’s loss to Central Michigan, so maybe the line move is related to that, even though head coach Pete Lembo said that Roberson would be good to go for this game. Gray, a senior from San Diego, has only thrown 64 passes for the Bulls over two seasons. Roberson has thrown for nearly 2,000 yards this season, but has a 13/9 TD/INT ratio and a completion rate under 60%.
Both of these teams grade well on defense, as Buffalo is 16th in yards per play allowed and Miami is 28th. Both have allowed under five yards per play in MAC games, but Miami has played a tougher schedule. Nevertheless, I do like the Under here, even with a very small number of 40. No wind or weather here, as the lake effect snow machine isn’t kicking up this week, but this could be a game marred by bad QB play and two subpar rushing offenses.
Pick: Under 40
Central Michigan (-9.5, 47.5) at Kent State
7 p.m. ET (ESPNU)
Another Monday mover here, as Central Michigan shot up to -9.5 after mostly sitting 7.5 or 8 overnight and throughout the morning. It is worth noting that Kent State did beat Akron to win the Wagon Wheel, but the Zips badly outgained the Golden Flashes 530-374 and had 20 more first downs. But, the Zips were -1 in turnovers and also turned it over on downs twice. Not to mention, 89 of Kent State’s yards came on one play.
This is also a Kent State crew that lost to Ball State the game prior, so I don’t think there are a lot of believers in the team right now. Kent State does need to win out to be bowl-eligible, with CMU this week and Northern Illinois next week, so Mark Carney’s team has a big carrot dangling out there.
Central Michigan does as well, as the Chippewas may end up controlling their own destiny in the race for the MAC Title Game. They play Toledo at home next week and hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Buffalo. I’m not sure how things will sort out if Central Michigan is tied with both Ohio and/or Miami (OH) in terms of those tiebreakers without a head-to-head meeting, as win percentage against common opponents is the second tiebreaker. Ohio did beat Miami, so they own that head-to-head tiebreaker.
In any event, CMU has been running two quarterbacks out there. Joe Labas was the primary guy against Buffalo and had a couple TD passes and 247 yards through the air. Marcus Beamon was the change-of-pace QB with 11 carries for 29 yards. It had been Angel Flores, but he’s missed the last two games. He’s Central Michigan’s leading rusher, so maybe the line move is regarding some positive news on him.
But, I do think this is a really good spot for the Chips, who have 432 runs against 177 pass attempts. Kent State’s defense was on the field for 95 plays in the game against Akron. Ben Finley threw the ball 59 times and the Zips had 36 more carries. The Chips are a very physical football team with 4.6 yards per carry in conference play. I think they can wear down Kent State here. The Golden Flashes are improving, but depth is a huge concern. I agree with this line move.
Pick: Central Michigan -9.5
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 13 games on our Pro Picks Page.
