Miami vs. Florida State Predictions
The Florida State Seminoles are coming off a bad loss to the Virginia Cavaliers, but they can make up for it with a win over the rival Miami Hurricanes at Doak Campbell Stadium on Saturday, October 4. All year, we’re going to be diving into some of the biggest college football games of the season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds and picks for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 6 College Football Betting Hub for a look at all of our college football betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How to Watch Miami vs. Florida State
Where: Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, Florida
When: Saturday, October 4 at 7:30 pm ET
Channel: ABC
Miami vs. Florida State Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Thursday, October 2. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Miami -198, Florida State +164
Spread: Miami -4.5 (-112), Florida State +4.5 (-108)
Total: Over 53.5 (-112), Under 53.5 (-108)
Miami vs. Florida State Analysis
Florida State’s loss to Virginia last week was disappointing. This should have been a clash between undefeated rivals, but the Seminoles defense couldn’t get off the field. The Cavaliers racked up 440 yards of total offense, and they inexplicably got 37 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns out of quarterback Chandler Morris.
The hope for Florida State fans and bettors has to be that it was situational. The Seminoles had to go into a tough road environment on a short week and they got caught looking ahead to to this meeting with the Hurricanes. It happens.
Putting that result aside, Florida State does have a slight edge over Miami in Adjusted EPA per play (+0.33 vs. +0.28). Also, while Miami is coming off a bye week, the team is just 2-4 both straight-up and against the spread after the bye under Mario Cristobal. That might not be the advantage people expect it to be.
Realistically, Cristobal still has a lot to prove in these big games. His opening-week win over Notre Dame no longer looks impressive, and he’ll have to prove that he can out-fox Mike Norvell. Sure, having an elite group of coordinators helps. But the Seminoles have a great staff themselves. In fact, Gus Malzahn’s offensive mind will be big here. Hurricanes defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman has been a revelation to start the year, but can he keep the Malzahn offense down?
Florida State’s ability to run Tommy Castellanos could be big here. If Castellanos is making the right reads on RPOs, he could neutralize Rueben Bain Jr. and a talented Miami front. Whether that means Castellanos getting to the outside or Gavin Sawchuk pounding it up the middle, there’s a chance this running game gets going. That’ll then open up the big throws to Duce Robinson, or the gadget plays with Micahi Danzy. This Hurricane secondary hasn’t been as leaky as it was last year, but it also hasn’t seen an offense like this. If Castellanos can just be somewhat accurate with his deep-balls, he can make this Miami defense hurt.
Let’s also see how Carson Beck looks in this type of road environment. The Georgia transfer has been stellar this year, throwing for 972 yard with seven touchdowns and three picks. But he’s not as willing a runner as Morris is, as he’s not looking to take shots and put himself in harm’s way. And Morris’ running was what softened up the Seminoles defense last week.
If Beck just wants to sit back in the pocket, Florida State defensive coordinator Tony White is going to dial up some pressure. And if the Seminoles pass rushers can make Beck feel them, we could see some turnover-worthy throws from him. He has been a mistake-prone quarterback his entire college career.
Miami vs. Florida State Prediction
This is a game in which Steve Makinen, our analytics expert, has a big edge on Florida State. His estimated line for this one was Seminoles -2.2. So, given everything at play here, I love Florida State to cover the 4.5. I also think the Seminoles are worthy of a moneyline sprinkle. Last week should prove to be a bit of a fluke for a Florida State team with a strong analytical profile, a dangerous QB run game, and an aggressive defense. And this building is going to be absolutely insane as the ‘Noles look to get back in the playoff picture.
Bet: Florida State +4.5 (-105 – 1.5 units) & Florida State ML (+165 – 0.5 units)
