Miami vs. Fresno State
In between 7th Heaven and Dawson’s Creek re-runs, you’ll be able to check out the Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl featuring Miami vs. Fresno State on the CW Network as part of a jampacked eight-game bowl schedule on Saturday. I’m not actually sure if those shows are still shown on the CW or not. Was The O.C. on there? Maybe they show that?
Who knows, but we do have a football game between the MAC and Mountain West and the MAC has shown itself pretty well thus far, with Western Michigan pummeling Kennesaw State in the Myrtle Beach Bowl, a game effort from Toledo against Louisville in the Boca Raton Bowl, and a very surprising Ohio win over UNLV in the Frisco Bowl.
Meanwhile, the Mountain West has seen Boise State lose by two scores in the LA Bowl, Utah State lose by two scores to Washington State in the Potato Bowl, and that really poor UNLV effort up until the time of publish for this bowl preview.
Odds from Circa Sports as of December 24, 12:20 p.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits.
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl: Miami vs. Fresno State (-6, 41.5)
Saturday, Dec. 27, 4:30 p.m. ET (The CW Network)
The Redhawks are a long way from home here, as this game in Tucson is definitely a hike for the MAC runner-up. Miami, despite losing to Ohio and Toledo in the regular season, emerged from the three-way tiebreaker against those two teams to get a spot in Detroit against Western Michigan. That would be the concern here with the Redhawks, as they’ve lost to Wisconsin, Rutgers, UNLV, Ohio, Toledo, and Western Michigan, while beating Lindenwood, Northern Illinois, Akron, Eastern Michigan, Western Michigan, Buffalo, and Ball State.
The Broncos got revenge for that regular season loss and avenged the only victory for Chuck Martin’s squad against a team that wound up bowl-eligible. The offensive numbers for Miami are a bit tricky to decipher because starting QB Dequan Finn left the program in early November to “prepare for the NFL Draft”. I’ll assume he’s preparing for a position other than QB, since he finished his seven-year college career with a completion rate under 60% and had a 9/6 TD/INT ratio this season.
Henry Hesson didn’t look great at QB, so Martin made the switch to Thomas Gotkowski, who posted a 4/0 TD/INT ratio over 64 pass attempts, but only completed half of those throws. He did have 99 yards on 22 carries in his appearances and his mobility and dual-threat capabilities seem to be a skill set that Hesson doesn’t quite have. Of course, Gotkowski also got benched in the MAC Title Game for Hesson, so we’ll see how this plays out.
There aren’t a lot of major opt-outs here, but the biggest ones are on the Redhawks roster. Star WR Kam Perry, who averaged 23 yards per catch, is out, along with leading sack man Adam Trick, who had 8.5 sacks and also four pass breakups. It will be a bit of a shorthanded squad, a reason why we’ve seen this line trickle higher and higher.
Martin is well-versed in bowl games and won this game last year after a couple of losses in 2022 and 2023. That’s not the case for first-year Fresno State head coach Matt Entz, but that’s because he was busy with playoff games at North Dakota State. His first season as a FBS sideline boss went well, as the Bulldogs are bowling for the fifth straight season with their fourth different coach. Lee Marks was the interim for Kalen DeBoer in 2021 when he took the Washington job, followed by two bowls with Jeff Tedford and one with Tim Skipper.
Not surprisingly with a guy like Entz, who was a defensive position coach and a defensive coordinator coming up through the ranks, this Bulldogs bunch was excellent without the football. They were a borderline top-15 defense by yards per play and had 24 takeaways, including 19 interceptions. This wasn’t a great defense in terms of generating sacks, but they allowed one of the lowest completion percentages in the nation.
Actually, Fresno State allowed a 55.5% completion rate and Miami allowed a 55.9% mark, so this has the makings of a defensive struggle. Fresno State does have a much more experienced QB in E.J. Warner, but Kurt’s son had just a 12/11 TD/INT ratio this season. The Bulldogs did run for 4.6 yards per carry and leading rusher Rayshon Luke had 6.4 yards per pop, though he only had seven carries for 22 yards in the regular season finale.
Miami vs. Fresno State Arizona Bowl Prediction
Miami’s opt-outs coupled with a turnover-hungry Fresno State defense are two good reasons as to why this line has been climbing. Martin is a master at making a lot with a little, but Entz has also proven to be a sharp head coach this season, overcoming a pretty lackluster offense. We’re not getting the best of the number here, but Under 41.5 makes a ton of sense. These are two good defenses, two iffy quarterbacks, and two coaches that will likely have very strong defensive gameplans.
Pick: Under 41.5
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