Some are already calling it the “Curt Cignatty”, as his juggernaut team is the favorite for the CFP National Championship Game in Miami Gardens, FL on Monday, January 19. The Indiana Hoosiers are -7.5 against the host Miami Hurricanes with one game left in the College Football Playoff to decide a champion.
You can understand why the “Cignatty” moniker has come to the forefront so early on for this game, as the Hoosiers look unstoppable. Crushing Alabama was seen as a data point that showcased why the Crimson Tide shouldn’t really have been in the field. Decimating Oregon was seen as a data point that Cignetti’s undefeated crew is on the warpath to a title.
But, a tenacious, talented, and extremely well-coached Hurricanes team stands in the way. Miami outlasting Ole Miss with a three-minute drill drive that resulted in a 31-27 final to cap off a back-and-forth, thrilling Fiesta Bowl. Miami’s playoff pelts are Texas A&M, Ohio State, and Ole Miss and that’s an impressive set of victories heading into this date with Indiana.
Let’s talk about the opening line, the action we’ve seen so far as of the morning after the Peach Bowl, and some of the big storylines in this one.
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Miami vs. Indiana CFP National Championship Odds Report
Lines as of Saturday, January 10 at 12:25 p.m. PT
CFP National Championship Game: Miami Hurricanes vs. Indiana Hoosiers (-7.5, 48.5)
Monday, Jan. 19, 7:30 p.m. ET
The scriptwriters nailed it here with this game being in Miami. “The U” is back and Miami native Mario Cristobal, whose head coaching career began 20 minutes away from the University of Miami campus at FIU, has the chance to literally bring a championship home. Cristobal played his high school ball at Christopher Columbus High School alongside teammate Fernando Mendoza Sr.
Elsa Mendoza was a tennis player at the University of Miami and son Fernando (who is actually Fernando Mendoza V), the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, was born in Boston, but grew up in Miami and attended, you guessed it, Christopher Columbus HS. Fernando’s circuitous path to this moment and being the QB for the Hoosiers has already been compared to a Disney movie and it’s hard to argue, especially with historical greatness now in view.
Anyway, as far as the game and the X’s and O’s go, bettors and oddsmakers alike seem to see some ample edges for the undefeated Hoosiers. The lookahead line here was Indiana -5.5 and their first half pounding of the Ducks was enough to push the game line out to -7.5 before the cream and crimson confetti even dropped in Atlanta.
Initial activity shows a willingness to lay the touchdown-plus price with Indiana, but we have a lot of time before this game to talk it to death and overanalyze it, so we’ll see where the number ultimately lands. Miami’s path to the title game is very impressive, as they’ve beaten some very good teams and also showed the ability to score some points with their 31-point effort against the Rebels. Indiana’s scored at will in their first two CFP games, so this total of 48.5 certainly has the chance to rise.
These are two top-15 defenses in yards per play allowed, though, so bettors may want to really dig in before falling victim to the recency bias of the CFP semifinal round as it pertains to this total. Of course, Indiana is also a top-10 offense by YPP, while Miami sits 34th in the nation. The Hurricanes have also mustered just 5.14 YPP in their three CFP games, as they’ve definitely put the burden on the defense more than OC Shannon Dawson would probably like.
Indiana, even with their low-scoring war in the Big Ten Championship Game against Ohio State, has racked up 6.06 YPP in their last three games. Of course, that’s still their lowest total by month this season, so leveling up in class has contained the offense to some degree.
Defensively, Indiana has allowed 5.19 YPP over those three games, again, their highest output of the season by month. Similarly, Miami has allowed 5.44, so you can definitely see just how much the level of competition matters when breaking down the statistics.
Much like the Super Bowl, with a standalone game and some extra time for the line to marinate, every angle about this game will be exhausted by analysts, pundits, and prognosticators. Expect a holding pattern for a few days while everything settles in. You’ll start to see the public players swayed by things that they read, hear, and see and you’ll start to see the influential bettors marking their territories as the betting limits increase on the game.
We’ll be covering those aforementioned angles here at VSiN.com and on our VSiN broadcast channel, so keep it locked in right here!
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