Miami vs. Ole Miss
There are four teams left standing for the National Championship and three of them didn’t even play in their conference championship games. With a berth in the title game on the line, Miami vs. Ole Miss on Thursday, January 8 at State Farm Stadium will determine who will play the winner of Oregon vs. Indiana to have a chance at being crowned the CFP Champion.
Many of us expected – and maybe even assumed – that this Fiesta Bowl matchup would be Georgia vs. Ohio State. That’s probably what the networks were hoping for, too. But, one benefit of the transfer portal has been the dispersal of talent all over the country and two star-studded transfer QBs beat homegrown signal callers to set up this ACC vs. SEC matchup. Make no mistake, while both of these programs were at-large qualifiers, these were two of the nation’s best rosters over the course of the season.
This game also features two fascinating head coaches, as Mario Cristobal has long been a killer on the recruiting trail and a guy criticized for his game management and losing games that he shouldn’t. On the other side, Pete Golding took over the wheel amidst choppy seas to help Ole Miss navigate the very public, very distracting departure of Lane Kiffin.
Regardless of what happens here, the Hurricanes will be returning to Miami. We’ll just have to see if it’s to play for a Natty or not.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of January 4, 6:15 pm PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits.
Vrbo Fiesta Bowl: Miami (-3.5, 51.5) vs. Ole Miss
Thursday, Jan. 8, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
The Hurricanes are looking to make a little bit of history here, as Clemson is the only team from the ACC to have played for the National Championship in the current College Football Playoff era, which dates back to 2014. The Rebels are looking to become the fourth from the SEC, as Alabama (6), Georgia (3), and LSU (1) have preceded them into the title game.
As it is, Miami has already made history as the first double-digit seed to make the final four in the expanded playoff. Last year’s semifinal teams were 5, 6, 7, and 8 seeds. A lot has been talked about how the top-four seeds earn a bye and seven of the eight have lost. Both of these programs took advantage of that, as Miami knocked off Ohio State and Ole Miss got revenge for a regular season loss against Georgia, each moving to 2-0 here in the postseason.
It goes without saying that Miami’s CFP resume is stronger, knocking off Texas A&M before beating the Buckeyes. The Rebels got a break in the first round as the No. 6 seed by drawing No. 11 Tulane, a team that they had beaten by 35 points during the regular season. That said, they earned every bit of their victory against Georgia. But, the betting action in the early going did show money on the Hurricanes and that seems like a pretty reasonable position.
After all, there are questions as to who will actually be coaching Ole Miss here. Golding will be there and he was the team’s defensive coordinator prior to being elevated upon Kiffin’s exit. But, OC Charlie Weis Jr. went with Kiffin to LSU and the transfer portal opened on Jan. 2, so all of the assistants that joined the Tigers have been doing double duty and now may have to prioritize their new gigs over their old gigs to a higher degree. Miami has no such worries and that higher level of continuity does seem like an advantage in this one, especially with the quicker turnaround.
There are also some questions about the Ole Miss defense. There are very few queries about the offense. Trinidad Chambliss has been great all season long and was spectacular against Georgia with 362 yards passing and a couple of touchdowns in the 39-34 comeback win. For the season, Chambliss is approaching 4,200 total yards and has 29 total touchdowns. Amazingly, he wasn’t even the Week 1 starter, as that distinction went to backup Austin Simmons. Chambliss has a 21/3 TD/INT ratio with his 3,660 passing yards and represents a big challenge for the Miami defense.
In the win over Ohio State, the Hurricanes largely neutralized Carnell Tate, but had problems with Jeremiah Smith. However, Julian Sayin wasn’t remotely a running threat and didn’t do a very good job going through his progressions with the clock in his head sped up due to Miami’s pass rush. Chambliss has over 500 rushing yards for the season, so he has a lot more escapability.
The Hurricanes also have to worry about a stud running back in Kewan Lacy, who needs 36 yards for 1,500 on the season to go along with his 23 touchdowns. The Rebels are second in the nation in yards per game with 496.2 and 15th in yards per play.
Those are concerning numbers because the Hurricanes have to win with defense. We’ve seen a couple chunk plays out of Mark Fletcher, but QB Carson Beck has only thrown for 241 yards against the Aggies and Buckeyes. Now, the Rebels defense is not on Ohio State’s level or really Texas A&M’s, at least in terms of creating pressure. Ole Miss also grades around the national average in stopping the run with 4.2 yards per carry allowed.
So, is this a spot for OC Shannon Dawson to find some more open space with his offense? Perhaps a game for Beck to create a few more explosive plays? The Hurricanes defense has only allowed 17 points, but they’ve also only scored three offensive touchdowns in two games and only have four drives with at least 50 yards of offense.
In terms of situational football, the Hurricanes are better on third down both offensively (45.8%) and defensively (31.4%), than the Rebels (44.3%, 35.1%), though not by much. Miami also boasts the better red zone offense by TD% (69% to 64.5%) and ever-so-slightly better red zone defense by TD% (54.8% to 55.3%). One big weapon for Ole Miss is Lucas Carneiro, their superstar kicker, who is 27-for-30 on field goals and kicked three 47+ yard FGs in the win over Georgia.
Miami vs. Ole Miss Fiesta Bowl Prediction
The Hurricanes definitely deserve the bump that this line seems to have given them and also the move that bettors made pushing the spread up and over the key number of 3 based on their CFP performance thus far. Questions remain about the offense, but this defense should be a step down and maybe a chance for Beck, Fletcher, and others to make a few more plays. But, the skill set of Chambliss is also something that the Miami defense hasn’t seen. I lean Over 51.5 and 52.5 here, but do think that the sideline stability has to be accounted for and pushes me in a stronger way to the Hurricanes.
Pick: Miami -3.5
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