Miami vs. Texas A&M
In a 12-team playoff where the five highest-ranked conference champions get a seat at the table, it should never come as a surprise to see the ACC represented. What may come as a surprise is that the ACC representative is not the conference champion or even the conference runner-up. Due to a convoluted and unnecessarily complicated tiebreaker process, it was Duke that played Virginia in the ACC Championship Game. Because the Blue Devils won, neither of those teams made the CFP.
Instead, Miami, which was the best team in the conference by a lot of metrics and stats, got in as an at-large team. The Hurricanes will have the opportunity to validate the CFP Committee’s decision to take them with a first-round matchup against Texas A&M. The Aggies didn’t play in their conference title game either, as a loss to Texas in Week 14 left them at home for an Alabama vs. Georgia rematch. That same thing worked out well for the #8 seed last season when Ohio State lost to Michigan but avoided playing an extra game and then steamrolled to the National Championship.
Odds from Circa Sports as of December 17, 9:00 a.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits.
CFP First-Round Game: Miami at Texas A&M (-3.5, 49.5)
Saturday, Dec. 20, Noon ET (ABC/ESPN)
Statistically, there are a lot of similarities between these teams, though record quality and weighted metrics do favor Texas A&M, which played a tougher strength of schedule and had five wins over Jeff Sagarin Top 30 teams compared to a 2-2 record for the Hurricanes. Texas A&M was 0.24 yards per play better on offense, but Miami was over a half-yard per play better on defense. From an EPA/play margin, the two teams were #6 and #7 in the nation.
The elephant in the room is on the Miami sideline, as the consensus opinion here is that Texas A&M has a huge coaching edge with Mike Elko over Mario Cristobal. That being said, as a head coach, Cristobal has a bit more experience in spotlight postseason games like this, including a win in the 2019 Rose Bowl over Wisconsin. Elko was a longtime DC before starting the first of his four seasons as a head coach at Duke in 2022.
There is also a bit of a big-game experience gap between Hurricanes QB Carson Beck and Aggies QB Marcel Reed. Beck, who spent the previous four seasons at Georgia, was hurt before the Bulldogs’ CFP appearance last year. But he played in the SEC Championship Game the season before and led the Orange Bowl rout of Florida State and the Seminoles’ skeleton roster. This season, Beck has a 25/10 TD/INT ratio with a 74.7% completion rate, but his 22 interceptions over the last two seasons have to be a focal point for both teams here.
Reed, who is more of a dual-threat guy, is the Aggies’ second-leading rusher with 466 yards and 5.2 yards per carry, but he also has thrown for just shy of 3,000 yards. He, too, has a 25/10 TD/INT ratio, but the running dynamic could be the difference-maker. So could the interceptions, depending on which defense forces more of them.
And that may very well decide the winner. Miami had 20 takeaways against just nine for Texas A&M, which finished the regular season -7 in TO margin and tied for 120th nationally. On the other hand, Texas A&M had 41 sacks, so could we see Beck put the ball in harm’s way as a result? These look to be two very evenly matched teams with the winner drawing Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl on Jan. 1.
Under money has been the story here, which is no surprise with defenses that rank eighth (Miami) and 34th (Texas A&M) in yards per play. We could have some windy conditions that may also be a factor, as gusts in the 20-25 mph range with sustained winds around 15 mph are in the forecast, but this is a massive stadium in College Station that will probably minimize the wind impacts.
Miami vs. Texas A&M CFP Prediction
There are compelling reasons to look at both teams in this game and the implication is really that this is a pick ‘em game with home-field advantage shifting the balance of the spread to Texas A&M. Personally, it’s Texas A&M for me, as I prefer Elko to Cristobal and Reed to Beck based on the reasons implied above. In a game of evenly-matched teams, it doesn’t take a lot to make a difference and I think those two things do, along with the SEC vs. ACC argument, even if Texas A&M didn’t play all of the conference’s best.
Pick: Texas A&M -3.5
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