Miami vs. Western Michigan
Toledo, Ohio, and Western Michigan were the three best teams in the MAC this season. Only one of them will play in the conference championship game. That’s because the conference’s tiebreakers when three teams are tied and two teams did not play each other falls to “record against common opponents”. Interestingly, Toledo and Ohio had a common opponent that they beat in Miami of Ohio. However, the RedHawks “won” the tiebreaker and now we get Miami vs. Western Michigan in Detroit on Saturday.
Ironically, Western Michigan’s one loss in conference play was against Miami and they already beat both Toledo and Ohio, so maybe all’s well that ends well or something to that effect. Regardless, this will be the forgotten game of the Saturday slate, going up against BYU vs. Texas Tech at the same time, but for the players, staff, students, and schools, this is the pinnacle of the MAC season.
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Miami vs. Western Michigan (-1.5, 43.5) Preview
Saturday, Noon ET
Ford Field in Detroit is the neutral site for this one, though “neutral” might be generous here, given that Kalamazoo is about half the travel time of Oxford and it’s probably finals week at both schools next week. This is also a rarer occurrence for Western Michigan, as they haven’t played for the MAC title since winning it in 2016. The RedHawks lost to Ohio in this game last year, but won the conference crown back in 2023.
The battle-tested Broncos took their lumps in the non-conference portion of the season, losing to Michigan State, North Texas, and Illinois, though the 33-30 loss to the Mean Green has aged like a fine Caymus over the course of the season. The big upset win over Toledo to kick off MAC play set off a strong season for Lance Taylor’s club and one that they hope to punctuate with some more hardware after locking up the Michigan MAC Trophy earlier this season, a keepsake handed out for the winner of the Directional Michigan rivalry games.
The RedHawks have a new lease on life here, as Dequan Finn left the program to prepare for the NFL, leaving behind Henry Hesson and Thomas Gotkowski. Hesson was awful in his lone start against Toledo, going just 11-of-38 for 147 yards with three interceptions and six sacks, so Chuck Martin went to Gotkowski, who has a 4/0 TD/INT ratio in two starts.
But, Buffalo and Ball State are not Western Michigan. Far from it. The Broncos are here largely because of their defense, a top-35 team by yards per play and a borderline top-50 unit by EPA/play. Miami has been good on that front as well, allowing just 0.05 more yards per play in MAC games than the Broncos. The RedHawks are also +9 in TO margin in conference play, so they’re a formidable group.
Western Michigan’s offense is almost solely about ball control. They have mustered under five yards per play on the whole, but have outgained Miami by 0.01 YPP in MAC games. Only nine teams have run the ball more than Western Michigan this season and four of them run the option. Leading passer Broc Lowry, who was battling for the job with JUCO transfer Brady Jones early in the season, is also the team’s leading rusher with 875 yards on 174 carries.
Lowry’s ability to run and scramble likely earned him the job over Jones and it was ultimately the right decision, though he only has seven TD passes on the season. Finn’s ability to run and his veteran presence was why he started the season at the RedHawks unquestioned QB, but left the program as the second-leading rusher and three games later, that gap hasn’t really been closed.
Gotkowski a low three-star recruit out of Indianapolis actually got his first offer from Western Michigan nearly three years ago, but wound up in Oxford instead. He didn’t play in the 26-17 win, as Finn threw for 260 yards in that one.
Both of these offenses rank in the 90s in EPA/play per CFB Graphs, but Western Michigan’s defense ranks 22 spots higher and their strength is defending the pass, while still being better than the RedHawks against the run.
Miami vs. Western Michigan Prediction
In total, Western Michigan had just 3.7 yards per carry against Miami in the first meeting. Martin is one of the best in the country at getting the most out of his team and even though Finn left, the defense has still been stout. Miami also had 14.4 yards per reception in the regular season meeting and now plays on the fast track indoors. Their offense is more balanced and Martin will have the defense ready again as they look to avenge last year’s title game defeat.
Pick: Miami +1.5
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