Michigan vs. Texas
The Michigan Wolverines and Texas Longhorns are set to battle in the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl at Camping World Stadium in Orlando on December 31. Michigan just hired former Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham, capping off a wild couple of weeks off the field. However, it’ll be Biff Poggi leading the Wolverines onto the field in this one, and he should get the team to compete. Will that be enough? Let’s dive into it with a Michigan vs. Texas betting preview.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of December 28, 11:00 am ET; check out our DraftKings Betting Splits and Circa Betting Splits.
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl: Michigan vs. Texas (-7.5, 48.5)
Wednesday, Dec. 31, 3:00 pm ET (ABC)
Michigan fired Sherrone Moore with cause a couple of weeks ago. The team then needed some time to sort out the head coaching spot, ultimately landing on Whittingham as the guy to lead the program forward. The Wolverines seemingly wanted Arizona State’s Kenny Dillingham, who is younger and capable of being the face of a program for a very long time. However, Whittingham is at least a proven winner that won’t steal headlines with his behavior. And he should be a good stabilizer for Michigan during these trying times.
The Wolverines are far from stable heading into this game though. Offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey left to take the same job at Missouri, so Michigan will have a new play-caller in this one. The Wolverines will also be without Derrick Moore, Jaishawn Barham, and Giovanni El-Hadi, and Poggi has said he expects a ton of other opt-outs. Poggi actually mentioned that up to 24 players could be out. And while it seems like Michigan avoided that mass exodus, you can expect some other absences here.
Texas will also be missing some key pieces — especially at running back and wide receiver. However, the offensive line is in decent shape, Arch Manning is playing, and Steve Sarkisian’s system should be able to survive without some of the skill-position guys. Defensively, the Longhorns will also be without some studs — like linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. and defensive back Michael Taaffe — but they have a ton of depth. Plus, even with Sarkisian firing Pete Kwiatkowski, it’s hard not to trust the defensive infrastructure with this Texas team. The unit was a strength for a good majority of the year, and the Michigan offense isn’t any good.
Sarkisian is also pretty trustworthy in these spots. Since he became the head coach for Texas, the Longhorns are 11-2 straight-up and 9-3 against the spread when facing teams with winning percentages between 60% and 75%. So, while Texas seemingly struggles to win games against elite teams, the team has been just fine against good ones. Also, the Longhorns like facing teams with run-first identities. Under Sarkisian, Texas is 12-2 SU and 9-3-2 ATS when facing opponents that rush for at least 200.0 yards per game.
The Under could also be worth a look here. While Manning improved throughout the year, he might struggle to light up a solid Michigan defense without some of his top playmakers. The Under is also 7-5-1 in the games in which Texas takes on teams with winning percentages between 60% and 75%. It’s also 8-4 when the Longhorns go up against opponents that allow 3.25 or fewer yards per carry.
Michigan vs. Texas Citrus Bowl Prediction
Even with Texas missing some awesome defensive players, I have some serious doubts about Michigan consistently moving the ball in this game. Meanwhile, Manning comes into this game having thrown for 12 touchdowns and only two picks over the last five games, and he had three games with at least 328 passing yards in that span. I think he’ll lead the Longhorns to a convincing win, sending the team into the 2026 season with some serious momentum.
Pick: Texas -7.5 (-115)
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