Navy vs. Cincinnati
Bowl season doesn’t end on January 1, even if that’s when some of the best games take place. We’re going to see a fun matchup between the Navy Midshipmen and Cincinnati Bearcats in the Liberty Bowl on Friday, January 2, when the two clash in Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium in Memphis, Tennessee. Navy is fresh off a win over Army in the Army-Navy game, so the Midshipmen have some momentum coming into this one. However, Cincinnati will surely be trying to head into the offseason on a positive note. Find out how we think this game will go in our Navy vs. Cincinnati Liberty Bowl betting preview.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of December 29, 5:30 pm ET; check out our DraftKings Betting Splits and Circa Betting Splits.
Liberty Bowl: Navy vs. Cincinnati
Friday, January 2, 4:30 pm ET (ESPN)
These teams enter this game on opposite ends of the momentum scale. Navy just earned a hard-fought 18-17 victory over Army, marking the Midshipmen’s third win in a row. Meanwhile, Cincinnati lost four consecutive games to end the year — and failed to cover in all of them.
Navy is also in much better shape than Cincinnati when looking at opt-outs and transfers. The service academy teams don’t often get raided by the big-money programs, so teams like Navy generally have their full depth charts when entering bowl season. This year is no different. Landon Robinson is the only potential opt-out for the Midshipmen, who also have a few players out with injuries. However, Cincinnati will be without star quarterback Brendan Sorsby, who is going to take his talents elsewhere next year — and should make a fortune on the open market. The Bearcats are also losing five other starters on defense to the transfer portal, and Dontay Corleone and Jake Golday are seemingly opting out.
Given how the Cincinnati defense looks, this game has the potential to get very ugly. Navy is 20th in the nation in EPA per play (0.137) this season, and the option-heavy offense can really throw opposing teams off — and that’s when they’re healthy. Well, Blake Horvath and Co. could do some disgusting things to the Bearcats here. Cincinnati is 69th in the nation in Rush EPA per play allowed (0.005), and that’s when the Bearcats have all of their starters. Navy should absolutely shred Cincinnati on the ground, and Horvath can make some throws when he needs to.
I’m also not worried about the Navy defense here. While this was a bit of a disappointing year on that side of the ball, the Midshipmen will be going against a Bearcats offense that is playing without Sorsby. That’s the heart and soul of this Cincinnati program, and there’s no telling what this offense will look like without him.
The service academy schools are also 19-3 against the spread in their last 22 bowl games. That’s not a coincidence. You get full rosters and maximum effort with these programs at this time of the year.
Navy vs. Cincinnati Liberty Bowl Prediction
Since taking over as the head coach of Cincinnati, Scott Satterfield is 1-8 ATS when coming off a loss by 10 or more points against a conference rival. The Bearcats have also lost those games by an average of 12.7 points per game. Cincinnati is also 4-7 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points under Satterfield. This just feels like a game that could turn into a blowout. With Navy being healthy and motivated — and being a bad matchup for Cincinnati’s current roster — this is one of my favorite plays of the entire bowl season.
Pick: Navy -7 (-110 – 1.5 units)
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