Week 7 College Football: New Mexico State vs. Jacksonville State

Conference USA remains in the midweek college football spotlight on Wednesday with another standalone game. This one features another big favorite, as Jacksonville State welcomes New Mexico State to town for a 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff on ESPN2.

This is only the second FBS season for the Gamecocks, who are 11-7 thus far in CFB’s top division. The Aggies’ two-year bowl streak – the first since 1959-60 – is in severe jeopardy this year and they’re unlikely to win this one with about a three-touchdown head start on the spread.

 

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For all of this week’s college football insights, refer to our College Football Week 7 Hub.

New Mexico State Aggies at Jacksonville State Gamecocks (-20.5, 59)

7:30 p.m ET (ESPN2)

Jacksonville State QB Tyler Huff has racked up 1,073 yards through the air and another 445 on the ground. He is the team’s leading rusher with 7.1 yards per carry and he’s accounted for 10 total touchdowns. New Mexico State has gained 1,319 yards of offense total on the year.

The Aggies have a total of 11 offensive touchdowns this season, as they badly miss Diego Pavia, who is now at Vanderbilt, orchestrating upsets over the No. 1 team in the country. The drop-off is impossible to overstate, as Santino Marucci, Parker Awad, and Deuce Hogan have combined for a 40.9% completion rate and a 4/6 TD/INT ratio. Aggies quarterbacks have also been sacked 15 times thus far. Pavia was sacked 24 times altogether last season.

This has not been a good pass-blocking line for NMSU, but they do have a somewhat respectable 4.2 yards per carry, though Larenzo McMillan’s 84-yard run skews the data quite a bit. The Aggies won 23-16 over Southeast Missouri State to open the season and have gone 0-4 since, though they did give Liberty a game back in Week 2 and probably should have beaten the Flames in the 30-24 loss.

There is a huge rest advantage here for the underdogs, as Jacksonville State played last Friday and beat Kennesaw State by 39. The Aggies haven’t played since September 28 when they lost the annual Rio Grande Rivalry to New Mexico by a 50-40 count. That game featured 43 points in the fourth quarter, as the lack of depth for both teams came to the forefront. Aided by McMillan’s aforementioned 84-yard scamper, the Aggies had 8.1 yards per carry and 285 yards on the ground.

The Gamecocks do rank below the national average in yards per carry allowed, but Louisville had 36 runs for 233 yards and Coastal Carolina had 57 runs for 294 yards. Since then, they’ve played a whole lot better against the run and New Mexico State more closely mirrors Eastern Michigan, Southern Miss, and Kennesaw State on offense than the two teams that Jacksonville State lost to in Weeks 1 and 2.

Because of Huff, the Gamecocks have averaged over seven yards per play outside of that Louisville game and just had 7.4 yards per pop against Kennesaw State. The Aggies are definitely better than the Owls, but the question is how much.

This is a big number with just a few days off for Jacksonville State. They’re plenty capable of covering it, though. The run game should win the day, as New Mexico State has given up over 5.7 yards per carry and came into this week ranked 127th nationally.

Pick: Jacksonville State -20.5

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