Week 13 College Football: Northern Illinois vs. Miami

MACtion will serve as the kickoff for Week 13, just as it has the last couple of weeks. We have three games on Tuesday night and two of them feature road favorites. The Michigan MAC Trophy rivalry continues with Western Michigan vs. Central Michigan. Akron faces rival Kent State in some very rare air. And Northern Illinois and Miami of Ohio in a game with huge MAC Championship Game implications for the RedHawks.

Not a bad night of MACtion. Let’s start with the game of the night and then get to the other two.

 

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Northern Illinois Huskies at Miami (OH) RedHawks (-2.5, 41)

8 p.m. ET (ESPN)

With a win over Akron, Northern Illinois clinched bowl eligibility last week, but they don’t have much else to play for in the final two games except for possibly improving their profile. They are, at least to this point, the only team to beat Notre Dame this season. However, they’ve also lost to Buffalo and Ball State.

Miami enters this week in a three-way tie atop the MAC, which eliminated divisions this season. The RedHawks do have a head-to-head win over Ohio and will play at Bowling Green next Friday night. If they hold serve here, they will be set up very nicely for a chance at making the MAC Title Game, but there are three teams at 4-2 that could finish 6-2 and create a whole mess of tiebreakers.

It is all about defense for these two teams. Northern Illinois is actually a top-10 defense by yards per play. They’ve also allowed just 4.4 YPP in league action. Miami is just outside the top 20, but it is worth noting that they’ve done better in conference than the Huskies, with 4.2 YPP allowed.

Miami has also been far and away the better offense in conference action. They’ve racked up nearly 6.9 yards per play, while NIU only has 5.2. The Huskies have had QB issues throughout the season, but do have 7.2 YPP over the last two games against Akron and Western Michigan.

Miami has no questions at the QB position with veteran Brett Gabbert, who has an 18/7 TD/INT ratio. They also have two running backs ripping off over six yards per carry. Ethan Hampton seems healthy for NIU now and he has a solid 12/5 TD/INT ratio. NIU is actually doing better on a yards per carry basis, but Gabbert has been sacked 20 times compared to eight for Hampton and sack yards count against rushing totals in CFB.

I like the RedHawks at home here, as they’ve been more consistent and have the better YPP metrics in MAC play.

Pick: Miami -2.5

Other Tuesday Games

Western Michigan (-6.5, 56.5) at Central Michigan: Round 2 of the Michigan MAC Trophy rivalry, which is a battle of the directional Michigan schools in the conference. Western Michigan plays Eastern Michigan next week. EMU already beat CMU 38-34 earlier this season. The Chippewas have lost five in a row and that was Game 2 of the losing streak.

WMU had great numbers and got off to a 4-0 record in league play, but had played four of the lowest-rated teams. In the two games against Northern Illinois and Bowling Green, they’ve allowed 73 points. This is a step back in class, as the line implies, but I can’t lay the road number here. They beat Ball State by 3 and Buffalo by 7 on the road during that win streak.

Akron (-10, 49) at Kent State: I said that the Zips were in rare air. If Akron holds at -10 or higher, this will be their biggest road favorite role in the Wagon Wheel Rivalry since 2000 when they were -12. This is actually the first time since 2017-18 that they’ve been favored in consecutive games against the Golden Flashes. Akron was actually favored from 2013-18 and then favored for the first time since in last year’s 31-27 win as a 3.5-point favorite.

Kent State appears to be the lowest-rated team in this country with this line. Either them or Kennesaw State, who just fired their head coach and had a bunch of players transfer.

Too big of a line to consider Akron, as veteran QB Tommy Ulatowski did return for last week’s loss to Miami. He wasn’t any good, but he’s a better option than Ruel Tomlinson right now

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