Notre Dame vs. Miami Odds and Picks
In the bigger of the two Week 1 college football games on Sunday, August 31st, the Miami Hurricanes host the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida. We’re going to be diving into some of the biggest college football games of the week this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds and picks for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 1 College Football Betting Hub for a look at all of our college football betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How to Watch Notre Dame vs. Miami
Where: Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida
When: Sunday, August 31st at 7:30 pm ET
Channel: ESPN
Notre Dame vs. Miami Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of 1:15 pm ET on Friday, August 29th. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Notre Dame -142, Miami +120
Spread: Notre Dame -3 (-105), Miami +3 (-115)
Total: Over 50.5 (-115), Under 50.5 (-105)
Notre Dame vs. Miami Analysis
It’s the start of another college football season, which naturally means Miami — thanks to some mainstream media members — is being hyped up as a College Football Playoff contender. The Hurricanes were a good football team last year, but they stumbled down the stretch. That led to a spending spree by head coach Mario Cristobal. The biggest name Miami brought in was former Georgia quarterback Carson Beck, who Hurricanes offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson believes can be the program’s second consecutive No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft. Cristobal also went out and hired Corey Hetherman as his defensive coordinator. Hetherman’s Minnesota defense was Top 20 in the nation in EPA per play allowed (-0.10) and yards per play allowed (5.05) last season.
There’s obviously a ton of potential for the Hurricanes. They’re stacked at pretty much every position, they have good coordinators and they’re in a winnable conference. However, Cristobal still has his shortcomings as a head coach, and I just can’t trust this program against elite competition.
Miami is just 2-8 against the spread in its last 10 games against higher ranked teams. The Hurricanes are also 1-4 ATS when playing with more than a week of rest over the last two years. Cristobal just isn’t as good as other big-name coaches when it comes to getting his team prepared for these blockbuster matchups, and he’s also good for a big mistake or two when it comes to in-game decision-making. Those blunders will cost you against well-coached teams, and that’s exactly what Notre Dame is.
The Fighting Irish are 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games as favorites, they’re 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games as favorites of 7 or more and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against AP Top 10 teams. Marcus Freeman also just led this group to the College Football Playoff National Championship Game, showing that this program is operating at an extremely high level right now.
It’s also hard not to like the idea of Freeman’s defense getting to go against a quarterback like Beck. Dawson is a great play caller, so there will be plays in which the Hurricanes’ pass-catchers are schemed open. But in his time at Georgia, Beck threw a lot of risky passes. That’s why he threw 12 picks a year ago. Well, if Beck takes unnecessary risks against the Fighting Irish, this secondary will make him pay. Also, I’d be surprised if Beck consistently has time to throw against the Notre Dame pass rush, which has a good amount of returning talent.
All in all, seven players with starting experience are back for the Notre Dame defense, which was second in the nation in EPA per play allowed (-0.21) last year. And Freeman has proven that nobody calls a game like he does on that side of the ball.
The question with the Fighting Irish is, will they be able to score? Star running back Jeremiyah Love is back after rushing for 1,125 yards and 17 scores last season, and he’ll undoubtedly rip off some big runs here. But there is some uncertainty in the passing game, as Riley Leonard is gone and five-star freshman CJ Carr is in. Carr has never taken a snap at the college level, so there’s no telling how he’ll look in a big road game to start his career. But Carr has prototypical size for a quarterback, he’s deadly accurate and he has some absolute studs to throw to this year. In fact, this might be the best group of pass-catchers Notre Dame has had in quite some time. Transfer additions Malachi Fields and Will Pauling should make instant impacts for the unit. Also, offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock is a genius, so he should be able to help Carr settle into this game.
The only thing to worry about with Notre Dame is that the public is all over the Irish. Our VSiN betting splits page shows nearly 80% of the tickets and handle at DraftKings Sportsbook have come in on the visitor. And you never really want to be on a side with that much support. But I can’t help myself when looking at the battle on the sidelines. I’m a big Freeman fan and I wouldn’t touch a Cristobal team with a 10-foot pole.
Our splits also show some sharp action on the Under. While the public appears to be eager to go Over, the number opened at 54.5 and is down to 50.5.
Notre Dame vs. Miami Prediction
Perhaps this is the year Miami lives up to the lofty expectations, but I’ll believe it when I see it. And I certainly don’t like the team’s chances of covering a small number against one of the best teams in college football in Week 1. That said, I’m putting some faith in Notre Dame’s freshman quarterback and laying 2.5 with the Irish. It doesn’t hurt that the Hurricanes have one of the weakest home-field advantages in college football. (I’ll see you at the next Playa Haters’ Ball.)
Bet: Notre Dame -2.5 (-118)
