The Penn State Nittany Lions kicked off the quarterfinals of the College Football Playoff and will do the same in the semifinals on Thursday January 9 in the Orange Bowl. The main difference is that they are an underdog and not a favorite, as the Notre Dame Fighting Irish are in that role with a line anywhere from -1.5 to -2.5 at the start of game week.
Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL will host this one, so it is a big of a trek from South Bend or Happy Valley, but getting away from the cold grasp of winter to go to South Florida is a big draw, so it should be a fun and raucous atmosphere with a balanced crowd and a ton of energy. After all, there is a trip to the National Championship Game on the line.
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Let’s break it all down and see if there’s a good bet to be made. Also, check out our College Football Bowl Games Hub for all of our VSiN college football betting content.
Orange Bowl: Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-2, 45) vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
How To Watch The Orange Bowl
When: Thursday, January 9, 7:30 p.m. ET
How: ESPN
Where: Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL
A quick recap on the paths to get here, as both teams have already won twice in the College Football Playoff. Notre Dame comfortably led Indiana before giving up a couple garbage-time TDs to make the score look closer than it was. Then the Irish used defense and special teams to knock off Georgia in a game where they had 244 total yards and just 90 passing yards.
Penn State has had the easiest path to this point, winning and covering as a big favorite in both games. The Nittany Lions jumped on SMU with two pick-sixes in a 38-10 win and played from in front with a +3 turnover margin against Boise State in a 31-14 win with a late score to cover the number for those that laid it.
As has been the case all season long, and here in the CFP as well, there have been hiccups. Penn State let Boise State hang around and the Broncos absolutely left some points and opportunities on the field. Drew Allar only had 13 completions. The Nittany Lions were outgained, though they did win the per-play yardage battle pretty comfortably.
Notre Dame’s very limited offensive performance against the Bulldogs also featured another injury for star running back Jeremiyah Love, who was limited to six carries for 19 yards. In fact, the only explosive run of the game came from QB Riley Leonard, who had 14 carries for 80 yards with a long of 32. The longest passing play of the game for Notre Dame was 14 yards. The second-longest was a 13-yard touchdown after a major game management faux pas from Kirby Smart and first-time starter Gunner Stockton, who fumbled with 33 seconds left and 75 yards to go to try and score before halftime in a 6-3 game. The Irish scored right before half, ran back the opening kickoff of the second half, and that was that.
So, what can those data points tell us about this game? Well, offense may be tough to come by. Love is clearly hurt. Leonard doesn’t have a lot of downfield threats. The Irish offensive line was the main area of concern coming into the season, but they haven’t played a lot of teams with good defensive fronts. Penn State has one, and an even better one if Abdul Carter can go.
The total has come down from 47.5 to 45 and probably isn’t done as more action comes in. It seems that bettors believe Notre Dame will slow down Penn State’s running game. Allar is getting draft buzz, but it has really been the ground game with 115 carries for 702 yards over the last three games that has stood out. The Irish run defense has allowed 3.6 yards per carry and just 11 rushing scores this season.
These are two top-10 defenses by yards per play, with Notre Dame fifth and Penn State seventh. The spread and the outcome may come down to a turnover or something on special teams, but I don’t see a lot of points coming in Miami.
Pick: Under 45
