Ohio State vs. Illinois Predictions
The Ohio State Buckeyes have looked like a wagon this season, earning wins over the Texas Longhorns and Washington Huskies already. However, going into Champaign to face a tough Illinois Fighting Illini team on October 11 could present a different type of challenge. All year, we’re going to be diving into some of the biggest college football games of the season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds and picks for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 7 College Football Betting Hub for a look at all of our college football betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How to Watch Ohio State vs. Illinois
Where: Memorial Stadium in Champaign, Illinois
When: Saturday, October 11 at 12:00 pm ET
Channel: FOX
Ohio State vs. Illinois Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Thursday, October 9. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Ohio State -600, Illinois +440
Spread: Ohio State -14 (-115), Illinois +14 (-105)
Total: Over 49.5 (-115), Under 49.5 (-105)
Ohio State vs. Illinois Analysis
Illinois has had an up-and-down season thus far. Bret Bielema’s group has good wins over the Duke Blue Devils and USC Trojans, but a 63-10 road loss to the Indiana Hoosiers makes the Illini a little hard to trust. That game put a bad taste in a lot of mouths, and it also completely skewed Illinois’ season-long metrics. The Buckeyes are fourth in the nation in EPA per play (0.43), which is a number we can fully buy into. However, the Illini are 74th in the nation in EPA per play (0.03), and the massacre in Bloomington knocked them down a ton.
As far as I’m concerned, this number is way too big. Under Bielema, Illinois is 6-3 against the spread as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points. In that span, the Illini are also 9-4 straight-up and 10-2-1 ATS when facing teams averaging 8.0 or more yards per pass attempt. On top of that, Illinois is 8-6 SU and 11-2-1 ATS when facing teams with winning percentages of 75% or better under Bielema. This team has been good about avoiding big losses, especially against pass-happy teams. And I’m not trying to overreact to the loss to the Hoosiers. This Illini team can play.
I’m also not sold on Julian Sayin. The first-year starter has put up some tremendous numbers so far, throwing for 1,313 yards, 13 touchdowns, and only three interceptions. But it’d be nice to see him truly thrive in a difficult environment. In a home win over Texas on August 30, he threw for only 126 yards and a score. He didn’t exactly light it up. And while his performance against Washington was solid, that was a game the home team could have won with a better offensive performance. Illinois should be better equipped to attack the Ohio State defense.
Matt Patricia has his Buckeyes defense playing some fantastic ball, but the Illini might be able to make some things happen with downfield throws. That’s not normally what Bielema likes out of his offense, but Illinois has been letting Luke Altmyer rip it this year. He actually comes into this game with three performances in which he has thrown for 296 or more yards, and he has 12 touchdowns and zero interceptions thus far. Altmyer also has two rushing touchdowns. He has really taken his game to another level, and the fact that this game will be played at home should allow him to turn in another good outing. Patricia likes to load the box and dare opponents to beat his talented defensive backs over the top. Altmyer might be able to do it. He’s not the perfect quarterback, but he’s a gamer.
The atmosphere in this game should also be terrific. Illinois might have gotten whooped by Indiana, but a spot in the College Football Playoff is still there with some good wins the rest of the way. Well, none would be bigger than this one, and the Illini are hosting a team with a young, inexperienced quarterback.
As far as the total goes, our VSiN betting splits page shows some sharp support for the Under. While 73% of the tickets are on the Over, the total has gone from 50.5 to 49.5. I personally wouldn’t touch it. I lean Under because Ohio State’s defense has been great, and Illinois has been a defensive-minded team under Bielema. But at the same time, Altmyer and the vertical passing game is a huge part of the reason I like the Illini. I don’t want to root against big plays when they’re the exact reason I think Illinois has a way in.
Ohio State vs. Illinois Prediction
I don’t think Ohio State should be favored by two touchdowns in road games against top-25 opponents until we see a little more from Sayin. That said, I’m loading up on Illinois, putting a nice chunk on the Illini to cover 14.5. I’m also putting a little on an alternate line of 8.5, plus I’m sprinkling the moneyline. This is how I treated the Florida State Seminoles in an opening-week matchup with the Alabama Crimson Tide. Let’s cross our fingers and hope for similar results!
Bet: Illinois +14.5 (-105 – 1.5 units), Illinois Alt +8.5 (+158 – 0.5 units), Illinois ML (+480 – 0.25 units)
