Ohio State vs. Michigan – Predictions from the T Shoe Index:

It’s here. The Game. Capital T, Capital G. When there are debates about which rivalry is the best in sports, I tend to answer with the only one called “The Game.” Sure, I was born and raised in Ohio, attended Ohio State, and still do what I can to attend games when I can and watch them every Saturday, but even an outside observer can see the pure hate, vitriol, and intensity that comes with every play in this rivalry. Coaches’ legacies are decided by the fate of this game. Players’ statuses in Ohio State and Michigan lore are born from this game. I will be in attendance at Ohio Stadium on Saturday wearing scarlet and gray, but the real question is how can we make some green on this game – which anyone who has followed me for any period of time knows I separate my heart from my wallet, unapologetically. I’ve got you covered on every betting angle I see in this game, so let’s see where the T Shoe Index and my general vibes of the game take us this week:

 

***Top College Football Betting Resources***

*It's the VSiN Black Friday Special. Take advantage of the largest savings of the year by upgrading to VSiN Pro. For a limited time, you can secure Pro access until May 1st for only $60.*

Bet #1 – Slow Starting Buckeyes

Ohio State has looked dominant for a large portion of this season; however, one tendency they have (much to the chagrin of Buckeye fans) is that they tend to start slow, seemingly intentionally, to “feel out” the opponent. I posted something similar on X last week before the Indiana game, and sure enough, Indiana stops the Buckeyes and methodically drives down for a touchdown to take a 7-0 lead before Ohio State scored 28 unanswered points following. I think Michigan is competent enough, and the Buckeyes are patient enough, for Michigan to hang around for the first half when emotions are high and players are still coasting on adrenaline. 

Bet: Michigan +10.5 First Half

Bet #2 – Suffocation Ensues

For as many F-bombs and “Fire the whole coaching staff” posts there are on X during first halves of Ohio State games, there are as many “Jim Knowles is in his bag!” and “Ryan Day is running it up!” posts in the second halves. This is where the halftime adjustments kick in, and the adrenaline wears off. It becomes just about the football, and Ohio State is better at football than Michigan this year. Ohio State is outscoring opponents by 15 points per game in second halves this year, leading the country by allowing just 3.8 points per game in the second half.

Bet: Ohio State -8.5 Second half

Bet #3 – Big Game ‘Mek

Before the Indiana game, I uncharacteristically gave out a prop bet as a best bet, which was Emeka Egbuka (OSU WR) anytime touchdown at +110 odds. That cashed with ease, and I think they will go back to the senior on Saturday. To recap my handicap from last time, which is still the basis of this play. Looking back through Ohio State’s last several big games, one thing was clear: they want to get Emeka Egbuka the ball a lot. Egbuka had 10 catches and one TD against Oregon, three catches and one TD vs Penn State, seven catches vs. Notre Dame in 2023, and three catches with 1 TD vs. Michigan in 2023. “Big game ‘Mek” is a real thing in Columbus, and oddsmakers don’t seem to be aware, as his anytime touchdown prop is priced as low as +125, but I’d take it at any plus-money price.

Bet: Emeka Egbuka Anytime Touchdown +100

Bet #3 – Michigan Punches One In

I think this play could happen on either the game’s first drive or perhaps the game’s last drive for Blue. From my outsider perspective, Michigan RB Kalel Mullings has been the most dangerous rusher in the Michigan attack, as he has 11 touchdowns and 832 yards on the ground. I think he could be the beneficiary of either Ohio State’s lax first-drive defense OR a late score that Michigan punches in to keep the game close(ish). Either way, Mullings will find himself in the endzone at the Horseshoe. You could perhaps split this unit with a first touchdown scorer, priced at +1600.

Bet: Kalel Mullings Anytime Touchdown +195

Bet #4 – Welcome to the Rivalry

I mentioned that players’ statuses in the lore of their respective schools are born in this game. Ohio State freshman phenom Jeremiah Smith has shown he’s a star, but in Columbus, you’re not truly a star until you do it in The Game. With Michigan CB Will Johnson – a projected top 10 pick in the NFL draft – likely out again this week, I’m not sure Michigan has enough in the defensive backfield to contend with the stable of thoroughbreds in the Ohio State receiver room, none better than Smith. DraftKings has Smith to score 2+ touchdowns priced at +380, and I think this is worth a nibble, as I think he introduces himself in a major way to “That Team Up North.” 

Bet: Jeremiah Smith 2+ Touchdowns (+380)

For more college football Week 14 best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Week 14 hub, exclusively on VSiN.

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR