CFP National Championship Game Prediction from Matt Youmans:

In early September, Marcus Freeman was in big trouble. Notre Dame, a four-touchdown favorite, was upset 16-14 by Northern Illinois. An embarrassing loss for the Fighting Irish put their coach on the hot seat.

In late November, Ryan Day seemed to be facing doomsday. Ohio State, a three-touchdown favorite, was stunned 13-10 by a shorthanded Michigan team. The Buckeyes’ fourth straight loss in the rivalry put their coach’s job in serious jeopardy.

 

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Freeman and Day each deserved the heat for embarrassing and inexcusable losses. The only way to quiet the critics is to win big, which is exactly what Notre Dame and Ohio State have done to set up their national championship showdown in Atlanta on Monday night. The Buckeyes (13-2) rebounded by posting double-digit victories over Tennessee, Oregon and Texas in the College Football Playoffs. The Irish (14-1) are riding a 13-game win streak. Only one team will achieve full redemption.

Ohio State (-8) vs. Notre Dame

How can the Irish pull the upset?

Notre Dame needs to run the ball effectively to run the clock and slow the pace of the game. The Irish feature three horses — quarterback Riley Leonard and running backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price — who can move the sticks against a sturdy run defense. Love is the team’s leading rusher with 1,122 yards and 17 touchdowns, including a 98-yard score against Indiana and a tough-as-nails 2-yard touchdown run against Penn State in the playoffs. Leonard (866 yards, 16 TDs) and Price (733 yards, 7 TDs) also get the job done. Leonard can be an erratic passer, but he did hit some vertical throws and went 15-for-23 for 223 yards against the Nittany Lions. He must complete a few throws downfield to loosen the defense and create room to run. It’s imperative for the Leonard-led offense to sustain drives to keep the Ohio State offense off the field as much as possible. The Irish find ways to win, and they can do that with their special teams and a defense that leads the nation in turnovers (32), but they are unlikely to win a shootout against a higher-powered offense and must drag the Buckeyes into the mud and stay within a score going into the fourth quarter.

How can the Buckeyes win and cover?

Ohio State owns the nation’s No. 1 scoring defense (12.2 ppg) — and Notre Dame ranks No. 2 (14.3 ppg) — but its offense is the biggest advantage in this game. Buckeyes coach Ryan Day and offensive coordinator Chip Kelly have made mistakes by relying too much on a power running attack when they should be speeding up the tempo and spreading the ball around in space to their playmakers. Veteran quarterback Will Howard would love to see the Irish defense in man coverage most of the time because it’s nearly impossible to contain receivers Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka and running backs TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins in one-on-one matchups. Kelly, who failed miserably in the Michigan game, has got to win the play-calling chess match against Notre Dame defensive coordinator Al Golden. If the Buckeyes build an early lead, they could run away with it in the second half. The Irish do not have a big-play offense that can erase big deficits, and Ohio State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles will be aggressive and on the attack.

The wagering handle on Monday’s game will be equal to a couple of the NFL playoff games this weekend, and the prop menu is enormous, especially at Circa Sports and DraftKings. I’ll make half-unit plays on the following props:

Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love to score a touchdown (+130)
Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith to score a touchdown (-115).
Love to have the most rushing yards in the game (+450).
Riley Leonard and Will Howard to each record 10-plus passing yards in each quarter (+125).
The result of Notre Dame’s first drive: Punt (-140).

Prior to the playoffs, I bet Notre Dame at 10-1 and 12-1 odds to win the championship, and I’ll be looking to hedge during live betting. The pregame moneyline of -380 on Ohio State is too high, and I want a lower price.

It’s easy to envision some scenarios where the Buckeyes win in a blowout, but the Irish are more physical than most think and their coaching staff is top-notch. The underdog is strong enough to take this to the wire, just as Texas did against Ohio State. I’ll call for the Buckeyes to sweat out a 24-20 win, although I’m not playing the total of 45.5.

CFP National Championship Best Bet: Notre Dame +8.5

Season record: 44-42-2 against the spread

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