Ohio vs. Miami of Ohio:
It seems a little bit awkward that the MAC Championship Game features two Ohio teams that used to play in the same division and the game is in Detroit. But, the MAC Title Game has been in Michigan every year since 2004. Ironically, only two of the Michigan MAC teams have played in the game since 2009 and this is the third straight year with two Ohio teams.
The Miami of Ohio RedHawks are looking to be the first repeat champion since 2011-12 when Northern Illinois was locked in a reign of terror with six straight title game appearances. The Ohio Bobcats, as incredible as it sounds, have not won the MAC outright since 1968. They are 0-5 in conference championship games, with the last appearance coming in 2022.
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Is this the year for the Bobcats?
For all of this week’s college football insights, refer to our College Football Week 15 Hub.
Ohio Bobcats at Miami (OH) RedHawks (-2.5, 44.5)
Saturday, Noon ET
These two teams played during the regular season and Miami won 30-20. The final score is a little bit misleading, as Miami led 30-6 entering the fourth quarter when the Bobcats put a couple cosmetic touches on the board. Ohio had 291 yards total, but only 74 in the first half, as the RedHawks opened up a 16-0 lead.
Bobcats QB Parker Navarro, who has accumulated over 2,800 yards on the ground and through the air, was benched in that game. He was 13-of-22 for 88 yards with two interceptions and had 11 carries for 38 yards. Navarro has had a problem taking care of the football with a 10/10 TD/INT ratio. He’s been way more effective as a runner with 132 carries for 876 yards and is on a run of three straight games with over 100 yards rushing.
Miami, meanwhile, gets to put the ball in the experienced and capable hands of Brett Gabbert, who has been playing college football since before COVID was a thing. He’s spent all six seasons at Miami of Ohio and this is actually the most pass attempts he’s had in a season. He went over 10,000 career yards this season and has an 80/29 TD/INT ratio.
But, he has a career-high 10 interceptions this season. He didn’t throw any of them in the first game against the Bobcats, but he’s thrown three in his last two games.
This is a tough handicap because the head-to-head data point was ugly for Ohio. However, Miami is 123rd in third-down conversion rate on offense and 131st in red-zone TD% on offense. Only Northwestern, UCLA, and Houston were worse in that area than the RedHawks’ 41.03% success rate with 16 TD in 39 red-zone trips. Ohio has 32 TD in 44 red-zone trips.
The Bobcats also have a top-30 red-zone TD% and Miami is around the national average. The RedHawks are top 10 in yards per play on defense and have held opponents to 4.01 YPP in MAC games, but Ohio is 20th in overall YPP and has allowed 4.4 YPP in league games.
The head-to-head result is hard to ignore and the market has moved towards Miami, but I feel like this could be the year for Ohio, with red-zone efficiency being the difference. Wait around and see if a 3 hits, but for now, I think Ohio is worth the gamble. Shop around, as DraftKings only had +114 at time of writing, while other shops were as high as +125.
Pick: Ohio ML
