Week 13 College Football: Ohio vs. Toledo

MACtion continues on Wednesday with two games that have identical spreads, but one game definitely has a much higher profile than the other. Ohio and Toledo are two programs that have consistently shown well in the conference. Buffalo and Eastern Michigan are not, but the Eagles are seeking bowl eligibility and the Bulls already have it.

Weather has a chance to be a factor in both of these games, with rain and some wind in the forecast. Keep an eye on the latest weather updates to see. We’ve already seen the Ohio/Toledo total bet down, while Buffalo/Eastern Michigan has ticked up.

 

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For all of this week’s college football insights, refer to our College Football Week 13 Hub.

Ohio Bobcats at Toledo Rockets (-2.5, 44.5)

7 p.m. ET (ESPN2)

The Rockets are not the Rockets that we are used to seeing. Toledo comes into this week 87th in yards per play with 5.5. They were a top-20 offense with 6.5 YPP last season and are looking at their worst finish in over a decade in that department. They do still have games against Ohio, Akron, and a TBD bowl game opponent.

Defensively, Toledo has been very solid. They’ve held opponents under five yards per play and are one of 33 teams to do that this season. Unfortunately, Ohio is one of them as well and the Bobcats have done better in conference games, but they have played Kent State and Toledo has not.

Ohio has more on the line here, given that they came into the week in a tie with Miami and Bowling Green atop the conference standings. That is especially true because their lone conference loss is head-to-head against the RedHawks. Ohio has handled three very inferior opponents the last three weeks, scoring 47, 41, and 35 points in the process. But, much like we saw with Western Michigan a few weeks back against Northern Illinois, they are an underdog here.

The Rockets have run the ball more than they’ve thrown it, but they are, for all intents and purposes, a pretty one-dimensional offense. The ground game has produced just 3.6 yards per carry and the longest rush of 35 yards belongs to QB Tucker Gleason. Ohio is more of a run-heavy offense, but QB Parker Navarro does have a 65.7% completion rate. Unfortunately, he also has a 7/8 TD/INT ratio. Gleason is at 19/7. He’s also the team’s second-leading rusher, despite averaging just 3.9 yards per pop.

Ohio feels like the more trustworthy team. Toledo feels like the team with a higher ceiling. I’ll trust the higher floor here.

Pick: Ohio +2.5

Other Wednesday Game

Buffalo at Eastern Michigan (-1.5, 53.5): The Bulls and Eagles meet on the gray turf in Ypsilanti, as Eastern Michigan needs a dub for the magic six wins and Buffalo needs a dub for a three-game winning streak. A lot of the MAC teams are pretty interchangeable this season and that’s true of these two, who have won games that they probably shouldn’t and lost games that they should have won.

EMU gave up 33 points to Kent State and 34 to Central Michigan in the games that they won. The line move on Buffalo seems correct here, given that the Bulls have averaged 34 PPG in their six MAC contests so far.

Pick: Buffalo +1.5

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