Oklahoma State Cowboys:
Oklahoma State had one of the wildest seasons a program can have in 2023. Following a home blowout loss to South Alabama, the perception of the Cowboys was at an all-time low. But, Oklahoma State would proceed to finish the season 8-3 SU/7-4 ATS in its last 11 contests, make it to the Big 12 Championship and win the Texas Bowl. The Cowboys bring back 19 starters from 2023 and look to finish the job after being blown out by Texas in the conference title game.
Offense
Any analysis of the Oklahoma State offense begins with Ollie Gordon. The junior running back led the country in rushing yards (1,732), was second in rushing touchdowns (21) and third in runs of 10+ yards (45). Gordon will be the focal point of this offense, and he gets his entire offensive line back in front of him. That includes two members of the All-Big 12 preseason team: Dalton Cooper and Joe Michalski.
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Quarterback is the biggest question for the Cowboys. Alan Bowman returns for a seventh season, but he is not a quarterback on the same level as a fellow seventh-year signal caller in Cam Rising. Bowman threw for only 15 touchdowns and 14 interceptions last season. He finished eighth in PFF passing grade (74.4) among qualified quarterbacks in the conference, and he committed the most turnover-worthy plays (22). If he does not improve as a passer, this offense – which finished 89th in EPA per dropback – could be even worse.
Ten starters are back for this group this season. The potential is unreal. But, a team can only go as far as its quarterback can take them, and the Cowboys have the worst signal-caller of the contenders in the conference.
Defense
Nine starters return for Oklahoma State on defense, but this wasn’t a particularly dominant unit last season. The Cowboys were 82nd in opponent EPA per play (0.081) and 107th in opponent EPA per dropback (0.221). They were 121st in the country in opponent yards per play (6.48). Is returning nearly every piece from one of the worst defenses in the country a positive?
There are some strengths for this unit. Linebackers Nick Martin and Collin Oliver were preseason All-Big 12 selections. Oklahoma State did only 4.5 yards per carry and finished 51st in opponent EPA per rush. However, most of that was due to the opposition having so much success through the air. All four starters return for the secondary, as does DC Bryan Nardo.
Outlook
Expectations are high for Oklahoma State after a surprising 10-win season in 2023, but the market might be too high. Their defense was extremely poor in multiple facets last season, and nearly everyone on that unit returns. The Cowboys also have one of the more challenging Big 12 schedules. If this defense is similar to last season and Bowman does not improve it is hard to invest in the Cowboys meeting their lofty expectations in 2024.
Pick: Under 8 Wins
