On Friday, December 27th, we’ll see the Oklahoma Sooners versus the Navy Midshipmen in the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl. This is the first of five games on the schedule for Friday, and it’ll be interesting to see how this one goes. With that in mind, keep reading for odds, analysis and predictions for this showdown. But make sure you also check out our College Football Bowl Games Hub for all of our VSiN college football betting content.
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl: Oklahoma Sooners vs. Navy Midshipmen
How To Watch Oklahoma vs. Navy
Where: Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas
When: 12:00 pm ET on Friday, December 27th
Channel: ESPN
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Oklahoma vs. Navy Odds
Moneyline: Oklahoma -155, Navy +130
Spread: Oklahoma -3 (-110), Navy +3 (-110)
Total: Over 43.5 (-108), Under 43.5 (-112)
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish. They can change. Shop around for the best prices!
Oklahoma vs. Navy Prediction
At first glance, this looked like a spot to back Oklahoma. The Sooners are the more talented team, even with some key opt-outs — like stars Danny Stutsman and Billy Bowman Jr. — and transfers — like starters Jackson Arnold, Brenen Thompson, Jalil Farooq, JJ Hester and Bauer Sharp. The reality is that Oklahoma’s second-team players are more talented and athletic than Navy’s starters. And one would think that head coach Brent Venables, one of the best defensive minds in college football, would be able to prepare for a triple-option offense. However, this Navy offense has a few more wrinkles than your average service academy offense, and quarterback Blake Horvath is one of the best quarterbacks we’ve seen in an offense like this.
Midshipmen offensive coordinator Drew Cronic should be able to take advantage of a Sooners team that will be playing a ton of inexperienced players. So, don’t read too much into the fact that Oklahoma is seventh in the country in EPA per play allowed (-0.108). Also, this Navy team was 57th in the nation in EPA per play (0.030) this year, and this was a top-35 team in both Dropback EPA per play (0.058) and Rush EPA per play (0.041).
Navy is also capable of slowing down an Oklahoma offense that will be missing its starting quarterback and several starting wideouts. Michael Hawkins Jr. is a talented dual-threat quarterback, but he isn’t very reliable as a passer. So, he can be shaky on a good day, but how will he look playing with a bunch of receivers that might not be all that comfortable in the offense? Navy is also coming off a stellar defensive performance against Army, and the team has been decent against the pass all year.
This is also a game in which motivation will mean a lot. A 6-6 season and a spot in the Armed Forces Bowl is a disappointment for Oklahoma, and the Sooners could struggle to get up for this game. The team also made some coaching changes after the regular season, meaning the continuity and togetherness isn’t quite there. That won’t be the case for Navy. The Midshipmen just won the Army-Navy game, and they’re going to be looking forward to having the chance to knock off an SEC opponent to end the season. The little guy always gets up for these games, and a 10-win season would be massive for a program like Navy. The Midshipmen haven’t reached double digits in wins since 2019.
However, I’m not strictly looking for a Navy win here. I’m taking the 3.5 and just hoping the Midshipmen can at least make this a field-goal game late. But I do like that Oklahoma is just 2-5 both straight-up and against the spread in games with lines between +3 and -3 under Venables, and that’s what this game is lined at most sportsbooks. The team is also 8-10 both SU and ATS when facing offenses that average at least 4.75 yards per carry, and it’s also 6-14 SU and 7-13 ATS versus teams with winning records.
If you’re not bold enough to play Navy against an SEC team, another option would be to consider the Under. I don’t like that nearly as much as I like the Midshipmen, but I do think the Sooners are going to be rolling with a run-heavy approach on offense. When you combine that with how long it takes for Navy to get down the field, the clock should be moving early and often in this one.
Pick: Navy +3.5 (-115 – 1.5 units)
